tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post4658568239190572060..comments2024-03-11T18:09:51.461-07:00Comments on Between the Lines: Morning Note: Another Bull Bites the DustMarty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-35421422285879920772022-09-27T21:51:54.409-07:002022-09-27T21:51:54.409-07:00Yes Sam, very good point regarding the dollar. It&...Yes Sam, very good point regarding the dollar. It's a huge problem globally for sure... And I agree, housing has some serious headwinds right here... Although today's data doesn't quite support that notion: New home sales for August were 685k, vs consensus expectations of 498k... The Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows a 16.1% year over year average rise in price... However, the more telling monthly figure was -0.8%... The FHFA House Price Index was released as well; it showed 13.9% annual average price increase, but a -0.6% monthly decline... I fully expect continued weakness going forward, but not nearly a 2008 scenario...<br /><br />Also keep in mind, the way housing is accounted for in the inflation data is funky... It's not about inflation in home prices. Instead what's used is what the call "owners' equivalent rent." They literally do a survey of homeowners and ask them how much they would charge in rent were they to rent their house out today... That's it, that's the housing inflation data... And it tends to lag notably; i.e., it doesn't tend to decline until several months after home prices have peaked... Marty Mazorrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-16751780972637144662022-09-27T18:01:14.269-07:002022-09-27T18:01:14.269-07:00All the Bulls are hiding. LOL.
I think market will...All the Bulls are hiding. LOL.<br />I think market will bottom when dollar peaks and bond yields drop. There are many signs that the housing market is dropping like a rock. Therefore inflation should come down accordingly since 15% of individual income is spent on housing and housing related materials and services. I am not sure if Fed Powell cares since he is laser focused of becoming the next Arthur Frank Burns.Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05314309335677078770noreply@blogger.com