tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post8830605852101936016..comments2024-03-11T18:09:51.461-07:00Comments on Between the Lines: Morning Note: Experiences vs Exercise EquipmentMarty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-54875770588392248662022-09-19T21:56:22.092-07:002022-09-19T21:56:22.092-07:00Always my pleasure Sam!Always my pleasure Sam!Marty Mazorrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-30278159835966549642022-09-19T21:51:24.625-07:002022-09-19T21:51:24.625-07:00Wow! Thanks for all the details! Much Appreciated!...Wow! Thanks for all the details! Much Appreciated!Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05314309335677078770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-25858006562504182552022-09-19T21:13:53.899-07:002022-09-19T21:13:53.899-07:00Hi Sam, Druck is no doubt referring to probabiliti...Hi Sam, Druck is no doubt referring to probabilities stemming from recent valuation levels. I've touched on this off and on over the past year+, here's a link to a December 2021 post: http://blog.pwa.net/2021/12/morning-note-what-odds-favor-in-years.html<br /><br />Below is an excerpt... My reference is entirely about the US equity market ("growth" stocks in particular). We see unusual opportunity in equities in a number of foreign jurisdictions. As well as in commodities for several years to come... And, yes, in certain sectors in the US as well. Bottom line, we believe the lions share of returns over the next decade will be derived from places than what folks grew accustomed to during the last bear market... <br /><br />Here you go:<br /><br />On several occasions herein we've illustrated what we believe to be the go-forward (long-term) unsustainable outperformance US equities have enjoyed over the rest of the world this past decade.<br /><br />In part, it has to do simply with the law of averages (as we've charted in several videos), but it also has to do with present valuation levels and what history suggests about forward return expectations from here. And, not to mention, our longer-term view on the dollar, demographics, geopolitics, etc.<br /><br />Here's from Vanguard's latest "Market Perspectives" piece. As you'll see at the bottom, they sympathize: emphasis mine...<br /><br />Market perspectives:<br />December 2021<br />Key highlights<br />Vanguard expects the U.S. economic recovery to continue in 2022, though at a naturally slower pace.<br />The Fed's tapering program sets the stage for what Vanguard believes will be a late 2022 interest rate hike.<br />We foresee inflation persisting above 2% toward the end of 2022, but broad wage gains taking hold could potentially push it higher.<br />Asset-class return outlooks<br /><br />The greatest change in our outlooks from the June 30 running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM) was in emerging markets equities. Large price declines in the intervening months lowered valuations, which are reflected in a 10-year forecast range that is 60 basis points higher in the September 30 running. In fixed income, yields increased marginally in the third quarter, allowing for a marginal rise in forecasts for many fixed income sub-asset classes.<br /><br />Our 10-year, annualized, nominal return projections, as of September 30, 2021, are shown below. Please note that the figures are based on a 1.0-point range around the rounded 50th percentile of the distribution of return outcomes for equities and a 0.5-point range around the rounded 50th percentile for fixed income.<br />Equities Return projection<br />U.S. equities 2.3%–4.3%<br />U.S. value 3.1%–5.1%<br />U.S. growth –0.9%–1.1%<br /><br />U.S. large-cap 2.2%–4.2%<br /><br />U.S. small-cap 2.2%–4.2%<br />U.S. real estate investment trusts 1.9%–3.9%<br /><br />Global equities ex-U.S. (unhedged) 5.2%–7.2%<br />Ex-U.S. developed mkts (unhedged) 5.3%–7.3%<br />Emerging rkts equities (unhedged) 4.2%–6.2%Marty Mazorrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-85458448514136519002022-09-19T20:53:44.902-07:002022-09-19T20:53:44.902-07:00Marty: thanks for the updates!
I read something in...Marty: thanks for the updates!<br />I read something interesting and want to know your thoughts of the following statement: "Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller warns there is a ‘high probability’ the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade". The past market has been great for investors for a very long time. If Stanley Druckenmiller were to be right, would we look into high yield corporate bonds, emerging markets, and etc. for a decent return for the next decade? Nobody knows what would happen in the future, but I do like the fact that we are investing in a macroeconomic level in lieu of a single focused market.Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05314309335677078770noreply@blogger.com