tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71903638470010300782024-03-18T14:19:53.835-07:00Between the LinesMarty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.comBlogger5179125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-67015098220470208782024-03-17T20:17:00.000-07:002024-03-18T06:51:33.707-07:00Economic Update: Problematic Inflation, Some Important History Of Our Assessment, And A Quick (important) Stock Chart Update (video)<div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Attention Clients, while all of today's video analysis is timely, please be sure to watch from the 6:45 mark on, where I chart our assessment alongside the equity market over the past few years... I.e., while we've generated positive returns even as our recession light remains lit, the current macro backdrop, and, not to mention, history, virtually demands that -- <i>while we'll continue to seek out and exploit value where we find it </i>-- we stay broadly diversified, liquid, and hedged against the potential for something swift and meaningful to the downside, at least for the time being. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>But first, a timely quote from an investing great:</b></span></div><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;"><i>“The desire for more, the fear of missing out, the tendency to compare against others, the influence of the crowd and the dream of the sure thing—these factors are near universal. Thus they have a profound collective impact on most investors and most markets. This is especially true at the market extremes. The result is mistakes—frequent, widespread, recurring, expensive mistakes.” —Howard Marks</i></span></blockquote><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Thanks so much! Marty</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Note that, where (at the 6:12 mark) I say "staples were ramping up" heading into, and during, past recessions, sends an incorrect message. They weren't, per se, ramping up during recessionary periods, they were just substantially outperforming (<i>at times losing significantly less than</i>) discretionary stocks.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/v0JWdhGvtjw?si=RQ5xcsMH0TMinrYc" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span><div><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div></div></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-38800160431633684352024-03-15T06:11:00.000-07:002024-03-15T07:29:28.628-07:00Valuations & Sentiment Paint a Precarious Picture For Stocks (video)<p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Dear Clients, in today's snapshot I touch on the typical, <i>and historically-dangerous-to-chase</i>, pull-forward nature of parabolic moves.</b></span></span></p><p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</i></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bQhQ2pxsRK8?si=XMLHwKqjStHhKjhr" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-68390623159212713822024-03-14T06:41:00.000-07:002024-03-14T09:51:10.221-07:00Morning Note: Patience, an "absolute must!" --- (a must-read post for clients!) <p><span style="font-size: large;">To be sure,</span></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i>"if patience is a virtue in life, it is an absolute must in trading and investing."</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i>--Randy Finney (technical analyst and trader)</i></span></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: large;">If you tend to think of stocks and your long-term portfolio synonymously, well, <i>if you're a PWA client</i>, I'd say don't! But recognizing that Wall Street has done such a masterful job of engraining such thinking into investor-psyche, the following is intended for those who do.<span></span></span></p><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/03/morning-note-patience-absolute-must.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-18931255305559783552024-03-12T06:45:00.000-07:002024-03-12T10:05:39.657-07:00Morning Note: Key Highlights<p><span style="font-size: large;">This morning's inflation data, in the aggregate, came in a touch hotter than expected, but not to the point -- at least in pre-market action -- to derail the equity market's expectation of a mid-year rate cut.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Meanwhile, here are a few key highlights from our latest messaging herein:<span></span></span></p><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/03/morning-note-key-highlights.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-13585667421918662852024-03-11T06:28:00.000-07:002024-03-11T06:28:46.915-07:00Economic Update: Amid Mixed Signals, Evidence of Weakness (in labor and credit in particular) Remains Too Much To Ignore (video)<p><span style="font-size: large;"><i><b>Attention clients, please be sure and take this one in when you have a few minutes.</b></i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i><b><br /></b></i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</i></span></p>
<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Sm5nA1dqprI?si=ijYWfehGuMd3CNHX" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-27881981296048431962024-03-08T06:25:00.000-08:002024-03-08T06:25:20.422-08:00Strong bullish sentiment "hints at a top," although..... And a quick stocks, yields, dollar and gold update (video)<p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p><div><span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vji1gvem8A0?si=EhWfXylvWNHcMLsD" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div><div style="font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div></div></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-3694787484720866792024-03-07T07:12:00.000-08:002024-03-07T07:12:48.348-08:00Morning Note: Manufacturing "Mini Upcycle" -- And -- Beware "The Other Side of the Parabola"<p><span style="font-size: large;">In our <i><u><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/03/economic-update-manufacturing-recovery.html">latest economic update</a></u></i> I entertained the notion that the recent strengthening in manufacturing sector sentiment <i>might </i>prove to be a head fake.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On Monday, BCA suggested that that may indeed be the case:<span></span></span></p><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/03/morning-note-manufacturing-mini-upcycle.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-34964907230778986282024-03-05T18:12:00.000-08:002024-03-05T18:12:37.612-08:00A Check In the Magazine Cover Box, Some Mixed Signals, Stocks, Yields, the Dollar and Gold (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MHZoBYozkcM?si=yEYJm-ooQNsK7ljf" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-6174040435207104922024-03-05T07:18:00.000-08:002024-03-05T07:18:16.506-08:00Morning Note: Giddy Media, But Not Over Gold -- And Your Weekly Results Update<span style="font-size: large;">Fascinating: The media, and Wall Street, are <i>giddy</i> over bitcoin nearing all time highs, and over the S&P 500 (I'd say "stocks" but the majority of stocks are clearly not there) <i>at</i> all time highs, while nary a mention of gold punching its way into never-before-seen territory.</span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Of course that, <i>all by itself</i>, has to have gold bulls feeling very good about their positioning right here.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">I.e., long-term tops typically do not occur when upside breakouts go unnoticed -- suggesting that the asset in question remains under-owned.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">The following, on the other hand, is the sort of signal you look for when you're concerned that present levels <i>may be</i> dangerously over-owned:<span></span></span></div><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/03/morning-note-giddy-media-but-not-over.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-4907885891365010952024-03-04T07:22:00.000-08:002024-03-04T07:22:33.067-08:00Economic Update: A Manufacturing Recovery or Head Fake? The Inflation Bugaboo And Some Telling Earnings Call Highlights (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AIWeSaO9Y5I?si=aU_RI8vTnm7UFWUL" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-10631408919231414602024-03-01T07:00:00.000-08:002024-03-01T07:00:43.072-08:00Another Look At Wall Street's Hopes, A 3-Year Look At the Technicals, Some Data, etc. (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xcQK4fViyPo?si=YJ6787I3KxFL_4mO" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div style="font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div></div></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-42717399210308631352024-02-29T06:54:00.000-08:002024-02-29T07:14:04.624-08:00Morning Note: Will Wall Street Get What it Wants?<p><span style="font-size: large;">I couldn't agree more with the first line in the following quote.</span></p><p><i><span style="font-size: large;"></span></i></p><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: large;">"Wall Street forecasts what it wants, it doesn't forecast necessarily what's going to happen. </span></i> </blockquote><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: large;">Now, sometimes, what it wants happens and their forecasts are prescient. </span></i></blockquote><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: large;">What Wall Street wants right now is lower interest rates. </span></i></blockquote><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: large;">They want lower rates because they see 5% money market rates as competition for the stock market." </span></i> </blockquote><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: large;"> --Jim Bianco<span></span></span></i></blockquote><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-will-wall-street-get-what.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-17636322944248932452024-02-27T17:07:00.000-08:002024-02-28T07:18:32.218-08:00Stock Market Snapshot: Not What An Early-Stage Bull Market Typically Looks Like (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Dear Clients, here's a very brief, yet important, assessment to be sure and take in.</b></span></i></p><p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-rH7wDDTctw?si=FGYaxbz0TUa_wqoZ" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-14015327126825331412024-02-27T06:39:00.000-08:002024-02-27T06:51:22.641-08:00Morning Note: The 'F' Word -- And Your Weekly Results Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">If you're getting tired of hearing about inflation, or the potential lack thereof <i>going forward</i>, sorry, this will be a <i>top</i> topic of discussion for <i>I suspect</i> many years to come.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">As for the time being, recent "hotter" than expected CPI and PPI -- <i>potentially </i>PCE this week -- notwithstanding, I do believe that before the current cycle runs its ultimate course, those who, <i>on behalf of their stock positions</i>, pray for dis(<i>or de</i>)flation will indeed see their prayers answered in the affirmative.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">Thing is, beyond the knee-jerk rally that'll no doubt come on "cooler" inflation data and sweettalk from the Fed, there's, <i>alas</i>, that 'F' word that'll ultimately be rolling off the tongues of many a Wall Street analyst, economist, market guru, yada yada!<span></span></span></div><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-f-word-and-your-weekly.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-25539384352821832992024-02-25T15:42:00.000-08:002024-02-25T15:42:07.092-08:00Pockets Of Strength, What the Fed -- Despite Their Panicky Impulses -- Hopes to Avoid, and Ubiquitous Copper (video)<p><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p><div><span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GnvfqGk5fPE?si=vxQivSPTEt2nAKA2" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div><div style="font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div></div></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-84975826368630231812024-02-23T06:48:00.000-08:002024-02-23T06:48:01.979-08:00Game Still On For AI Stocks, And An Overall Equity Market, Yields and Dollar Snapshot (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wOuPIEglH0s?si=Jzbo360uslRznFio" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-90934788105095239342024-02-22T07:09:00.000-08:002024-02-22T13:01:01.237-08:00Morning Note: While Some Key Conditions Improve, Leading Indicators Still Warn, And Healthcare Well-Positioned<p><span style="font-size: large;">The following from BCA's narrative around this week's US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) release should sound very familiar to clients and regular readers:</span></p><span style="font-size: large;"></span><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">"Indeed, the US economy has been robust and the data do not point to an imminent recession. Financial conditions have eased, home prices have risen and consumer sentiment has rebounded. All these factors are supporting economic activity.<br><br>However, our base case remains that a recession is likely in late 2024 or early 2025. Beneath the surface of the resilient labor market, some of the leading indicators are weakening. Similarly, default rates on credit cards and auto loans have risen and the tailwind from excess pandemic savings is fading.<span></span></span></blockquote><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-while-some-key-conditions.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-460312847970233092024-02-20T17:07:00.000-08:002024-02-20T17:07:42.547-08:00Stock Market Snapshot and a Look at NVDA's Technical Setup (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gfuFn9R_gzQ?si=8IQH3ItGLNnepvfp" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-91775538787063820562024-02-20T07:15:00.000-08:002024-02-20T07:18:36.535-08:00Morning Note: “Beware the Ideologue” And Your Weekly Results Update <p><span style="font-size: large;">Not much to add this morning to our weekend video update, except perhaps the following on objectivity, <i>and humility (absolute must-have qualities if one is to be a successful investor)</i> from William Bernstein's outstanding volume <u><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Delusions-Crowds-Why-People-Groups-ebook/dp/B08BSQYQF7/ref=sr_1_1?crid=5ZPQ9DDNCJO6&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.M4k-S7GMkvkhUbGjGJWKKQm_oPDIAAXNLyfKeBQ2Rnpb7MhDe7qjswKNFPBFJMB1EsKSXsRT4jXLTdBZvPyyEDifVhiyTKM80xQvKv4Eu-g0AoCdGFSTp7hX8x3CGJE8QReAB4CJDyPy2gTxaGcxPaCUZkoaCdgXkjU5w7-ylNWqNEAAa4GuPDB0473GyvhmEvYYxFk-wbunLxPSsqvbuKFCBPxVvDtD-6X9c-ZGo6Y.urhhXtaMxkgPukw776aEdLnQM9WDIAC26TZkKlK2W5g&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+delusion+of+crowds&qid=1708380860&sprefix=the+delusion+of+crowd%2Caps%2C280&sr=8-1" target="_blank">The Delusions of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups</a>:</i></u></span></p><p></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i>“…the more points of view a group brings to bear on an estimate, the more accurate that estimate is liable to be. Diversity of opinion also benefits the individual as well; as put by F. Scott Fitzgerald, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” </i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Over the past three decades, psychologist Philip Tetlock has examined the forecasting accuracy of hundreds of well-regarded experts; he found that those who took into account a wide variety of often contradictory viewpoints performed better than those who viewed the world through a single theoretical lens. In plain English: beware the ideologue and the true believer, whether in politics, in religion, or in finance.”<span></span></i></span></p></blockquote><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-beware-ideologue-and-your.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-60233530383610440822024-02-18T14:25:00.000-08:002024-02-18T14:25:19.875-08:00Labor Hoarding, Households and Homebuilders Happier, Small Businesses Not, Inflation Forces and Some Corporate Commentary (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W_rmkGKq1Ls?si=q--ixPPIbUQvktYB" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div></div></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-58519561304030857552024-02-16T06:51:00.000-08:002024-02-16T06:51:11.835-08:00Stagflationish Data, Sentiment Extreme, When We'll Be Buyers, And That Dangerous Soft-Landing Narrative (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dCkPVfVtKLI?si=Ls7ZQEA-KCjMvtaB" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-67530366251188409912024-02-15T07:07:00.000-08:002024-02-15T09:30:43.048-08:00Morning Note: Hints of Stagflation, And Some Key Highlights <p><span style="font-size: large;">In our last video commentary I mentioned the term “stagflation” — <i>a stagnating economy amid sticky, or rising, inflation </i>— as a distinct go-forward possibility.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Well, this morning’s data releases certainly don’t conflict with that concern.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">As for the economy side of that narrative*:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCA2AJyL4PmFHyxDEoz-K2ATd8VydOycBBAcODQCwfewqR5n-qeqWuAiIEinCp3IJr8ZViBw1BHku89pgli6Bk2baNnSH4Tn_49fmI1zegO2PIsg9vLU3NP4BDApLzNRz34iWiDGyGBfq6MettzQDleoPsXfkmEr3AIrW1MXdPMujAek_YrEWys1WBtu0=w535-h179" width="535"></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">That's quite the miss: -0.8 month-on-month for headline vs -0.1 expected (plus a -2% revision for December) -- as well as a -0.5% print against +0.2% expectation for core (ex-cars and gas).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">As for inflation:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiG7Df0taLYy9kh4xXJz5nrd7OufkVX33gfi_ZpzjmjtjQYmvsOrRbCr-OvF7Pqbd4wngoBKDV90LZSaXIzRqtdn2O1e2XveQicUD6lNeP630-KF552fSH2VQUPR3zQakjAW2BEoKqULq_d3HkAAVatKBRs8r87uiCSqKnwjMNiVH3jiYSXIvZkoSXtDDY=w550-h201" width="550"></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;">Again, quite the miss: Import price expectations were for a decline of -0.1% month-on-month; what we actually got was a whopping 0.8% increase. As for exports, prices also popped 0.8% m-o-m, vs a -0.2% expectation... On a year-on-year basis, prices did contract, but at a bit slower pace than the previous print.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">*Note, a potential factor to consider that may have impacted the retail sales numbers was the messy January weather.</span></i></div><span style="font-size: large;"><i><br>Stay tuned...</i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><span style="font-size: large;">Here are some key highlights from our latest messaging herein:<span></span></span><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-hints-of-stagflation-and.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-48605944053994386072024-02-14T06:38:00.000-08:002024-02-14T06:58:00.552-08:00Beyond the Short Term, Today's Hot Inflation Print Is Not the Big Risk for Stocks (video)<p><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:</span></i></p><p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/udK17JAWhwg?si=gVI__WioLaH7ErU2" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.</span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-79852992934746404512024-02-13T07:13:00.000-08:002024-02-13T07:13:28.333-08:00Morning Note: On the Other Hand.....<div><span style="font-size: large;">Yesterday I shared a thread by BCA Chief Strategist Peter Berezin, who now sees likely weakness among US consumer and, thus, the US economy as well in the coming months... That scenario would be met with falling yields.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Today, in contrast, I'm offering up the alternative scenario from Bianco Research's Jim Bianco, who sees no recession this year, and anticipates rates breaking to the upside over the coming weeks.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">As we've expressed herein, the market's in a tough spot right here... In the recession scenario, corporate earnings take a hit, and, <i>believe me</i>, stocks are in no way priced for it right here... In a no-recession scenario, yields do not decline -- <i>per the below, according to Jim they rise</i> -- and, <i>alas</i>, stocks are in no way priced for that either, per this morning’s initial reaction to January’s CPI print:<span></span></span></div><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-on-other-hand.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7190363847001030078.post-51009563126854989212024-02-12T06:38:00.000-08:002024-02-12T06:40:11.413-08:00Morning Note: "Consumer Reality Tour" -- And Your Weekly Results Update<p><span style="font-size: large;">BCA chief strategist Peter Berezin was <i>not </i>in the heavily-crowded recession camp last year... He estimated -- correctly! -- that, <i>despite the plethora of leading indicators screaming otherwise</i>, the consumer's momentum and resources would keep the economy chugging along throughout 2023.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Per the below, his 2024 analysis paints an altogether different picture:<span></span></span></p><a href="http://blog.pwa.net/2024/02/morning-note-consumer-reality-tour-and.html#more">Read more »</a>Marty Mazorrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08472867992519060059noreply@blogger.com0