Monday, February 3, 2020

The Latest Data: The Good And The Bad Thus Far

This is a really big week for data, below is what we're looking at so far. Let's eat our vegetables first.


Bad Data:

  • Yesterday's Australia Manufacturing Index for January came in at 45.4, down from 48.3, below 50 denotes contraction.
  • South Korea's Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 48.8, vs expectations of 49.3, below 50 denotes contraction.
  • Chinese Industrial Profits for December plunged 6.30% year-over-year, and that was before coronavirus.
  • China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 51.1, down from 51.5, but still above 50.
  • Spain's Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 48.5, down from 47.4, below 50 denotes contraction.
  • Hong Kong GDP for Q4 came in at -3.0%.
  • South Africa Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 45.2, down from 47.1
  • U.S. Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 51.9, down from 52.4, but still above 50.

Now the better-tasting stuff.

Good Data:
  • India's Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 55.3, up from 52.7.
  • Italian Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 48.9, up from 46.2, but still in contraction mode.
  • French Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 51.1, up from 51.0.
  • German Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 45.3, up from 43.7, but still in contraction mode.
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 47.9, up from 46.3, but still in contraction mode.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 50.0, up from 47.5.
  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 51.0, up from 50.2
  • Singapore Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 50.3, up from 50.1.
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI for January came in at 50.6, up from 50.4
  • US ISM Manufacturing Index for January came in at 50.9, up from 47.8.

Thus far -- amid a veritable avalanche of global monetary stimulus -- the latest data continue to paint a very mixed picture. Although, I have to say that the US ISM data (albeit barely back in expansion mode) is an unambiguous positive!



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