A Step Back From the Brink

While, as you've noticed in recent weeks, as diversified as it is, our core allocation can indeed experience quite the day-to-day volatility, in either direction.

This morning, of course, we're talking the direction everybody loves, and rightfully so... Per the note below, weekend events were resoundingly bullish for virtually all things, save for those that are energy/oil-related and economically defensive (read consumer staples and healthcare).

Speaking of oil, while the (yet to happen) opening of the Strait makes the price more palatable, make no mistake, over the course of the next few months a not-small quantity will go straight to storage (to replenish drawn inventory, and to establish new inventory in a world startled by how one actor can shut off meaningful supply), and, thus, not into the economy for consumption.

Your Weekly Roundup

While our synopsis below implies that (as recent data suggest) inflation should abate some when oil begins flowing, as I've flagged herein and in client meetings, a go-forward scenario where geopolitical risk becomes less prominent, and animal spirits ignite, will see demand for things beyond just oil rise broadly -- essentially keeping price-pressure (read inflation) very much alive and well.

I.e., suffice to say, the setup late this year into next may very well be characterized by a notable renewal in the rising inflation/interest rate trend, which can pose a serious headwind for risk assets.

In the meantime, it was quite the week last week for stocks.

S&P 500 Index 5-day chart:

Evening Rundown

Quite the eventful day today... Below is your evening rundown*. 

There'll be the usual deeper macro dive coming your way over the weekend:

Evening Note* — Thursday, June 11, 2026

A relief rally, and why the shape of our portfolio mattered

After a brutal Wednesday — when a three-year-high inflation print sent the major indexes to their lows — markets reversed hard today on signs that the Iran situation may be moving toward de-escalation. Reports out of Iranian state media suggested a deal is close, and risk assets responded in kind. The Russell 2000 led the way, up roughly 3%, with the Nasdaq (+2.5%), Dow (+1.9%), and S&P 500 (+1.75%) all posting healthy gains. The Dow climbed back above 50,000, and the market's "fear gauge," the VIX, fell nearly 12%.

Under the surface, the move had a distinct character. The leadership came from technology, industrials, and materials — the economically sensitive corners of the market that tend to do well when investors grow more confident. The laggards were the defensive and war-premium trades: energy, consumer staples, and real estate. In short, this was the market exhaling — unwinding the fear that had been priced in over weeks of Middle East tension.

How our core allocation behaved

Midweek Note

Per the synopsis below, along with our broad (although thematic) diversification, we manage an options strategy (for portfolios that, by size, qualify) designed to mitigate the major, protracted drawdowns... I.e., the pain we intend to quell is not the single digit % breaks the likes of which we saw last week -- although, indeed, there have been a number of instances when even those were notably muted -- it's the large, extended drawdowns that occur every so often in equity markets that we aim to quell.

So, in essence, and just to clarify, our goal is to mitigate said drawdowns while smartly capturing upside where it's to be had, which requires that we live through some, at times notable, downside volatility as a matter of course.

PWA Morning Note*: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 

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The setup in one line

Your Weekly Roundup

Of course, given the latest action in markets, and the weekend headlines, there are bigger fish to fry in the minds of most people than last Friday's jobs report... That said, keep in mind, said report was not-small in terms of the conditions that characterized last week's swoon... Nevertheless, the world is waiting for tomorrow's opening market print with bated breath.

As I type, weekend markets are actually pointing to a (albeit slightly) green open for equities, for gold and even for bitcoin (which was also taken out to the woodshed last week)... Problem is, oil is up nearly 3% as well; which is contrary to what has been inspiring stocks, etc., in recent weeks... I.e., if all you would've told me is that oil's up 3% on a late June 2026 Sunday morning, I'd be telling you look out below come Monday's open!

How To Think About The Last Week In Markets (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Making Sense of This Week's Selloff

In yesterday's note I suggested that a good jobs number this morning could spell bad news for stocks:

"Suffice to say that it (a strong jobs number) has the potential to throw some cold water on our positive-resolution-will-lift-stocks thesis, but not in the way you might think... Meaning, if the jobs number is really good, and the Hormuz news says smooth sailing to come, there's a chance that yields could actually rise in response."

Well, the headline (+172k) number was nearly double the consensus expectation (+88k), and, yes, stocks are feeling it this morning... The S&P 500 is down a full 1% as I type, while the Nasdaq 100 is down a whopping 1.97%... The Dow, on the other hand, benefiting of late from a rotation out of tech and into healthcare and financial names in particular -- is only down 0.33%.