Evening Rundown

Quite the eventful day today... Below is your evening rundown*. 

There'll be the usual deeper macro dive coming your way over the weekend:

Evening Note* — Thursday, June 11, 2026

A relief rally, and why the shape of our portfolio mattered

After a brutal Wednesday — when a three-year-high inflation print sent the major indexes to their lows — markets reversed hard today on signs that the Iran situation may be moving toward de-escalation. Reports out of Iranian state media suggested a deal is close, and risk assets responded in kind. The Russell 2000 led the way, up roughly 3%, with the Nasdaq (+2.5%), Dow (+1.9%), and S&P 500 (+1.75%) all posting healthy gains. The Dow climbed back above 50,000, and the market's "fear gauge," the VIX, fell nearly 12%.

Under the surface, the move had a distinct character. The leadership came from technology, industrials, and materials — the economically sensitive corners of the market that tend to do well when investors grow more confident. The laggards were the defensive and war-premium trades: energy, consumer staples, and real estate. In short, this was the market exhaling — unwinding the fear that had been priced in over weeks of Middle East tension.

How our core allocation behaved

Midweek Note

Per the synopsis below, along with our broad (although thematic) diversification, we manage an options strategy (for portfolios that, by size, qualify) designed to mitigate the major, protracted drawdowns... I.e., the pain we intend to quell is not the single digit % breaks the likes of which we saw last week -- although, indeed, there have been a number of instances when even those were notably muted -- it's the large, extended drawdowns that occur every so often in equity markets that we aim to quell.

So, in essence, and just to clarify, our goal is to mitigate said drawdowns while smartly capturing upside where it's to be had, which requires that we live through some, at times notable, downside volatility as a matter of course.

PWA Morning Note*: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 

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The setup in one line

Your Weekly Roundup

Of course, given the latest action in markets, and the weekend headlines, there are bigger fish to fry in the minds of most people than last Friday's jobs report... That said, keep in mind, said report was not-small in terms of the conditions that characterized last week's swoon... Nevertheless, the world is waiting for tomorrow's opening market print with bated breath.

As I type, weekend markets are actually pointing to a (albeit slightly) green open for equities, for gold and even for bitcoin (which was also taken out to the woodshed last week)... Problem is, oil is up nearly 3% as well; which is contrary to what has been inspiring stocks, etc., in recent weeks... I.e., if all you would've told me is that oil's up 3% on a late June 2026 Sunday morning, I'd be telling you look out below come Monday's open!

How To Think About The Last Week In Markets (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Making Sense of This Week's Selloff

In yesterday's note I suggested that a good jobs number this morning could spell bad news for stocks:

"Suffice to say that it (a strong jobs number) has the potential to throw some cold water on our positive-resolution-will-lift-stocks thesis, but not in the way you might think... Meaning, if the jobs number is really good, and the Hormuz news says smooth sailing to come, there's a chance that yields could actually rise in response."

Well, the headline (+172k) number was nearly double the consensus expectation (+88k), and, yes, stocks are feeling it this morning... The S&P 500 is down a full 1% as I type, while the Nasdaq 100 is down a whopping 1.97%... The Dow, on the other hand, benefiting of late from a rotation out of tech and into healthcare and financial names in particular -- is only down 0.33%.

The Current "Macro Brew" And Its Late-Year Implications

Suffice to say that these days some of the "normal," if not reliable, market indicators don't carry the oomph they otherwise would were it not for the turmoil in the Middle East... You've noticed that we haven't been boring you of late with our technical analyses (videos)... Not that they don't matter, but, again, in times like these a headline can kill a high-probability setup in the blink of eye, or faster than a tick on a chart.

That said, tomorrows jobs report matters.

As I've expressed herein, we're constructive on equities right here, as political and economic risk strongly supports the notion that the Strait will be open sooner than later... That's unambiguously bullish for equities initially... Although, as I type, chip stocks are getting hammered on a handful of reports that question the durability of the AI driven bonanza  -- the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 1.24% this morning, which is dragging the S&P 500 down 0.23%, while the Dow is up 580 points... Of course that's rotation, explained by yet another glimmer of hope this morning that peace is on the horizon.

Pressure Is On

Per the summation below, last night's tariff (proposal) announcement should be viewed as symbolic in that it says that the Administration is, as promised, not willing to relent to sentiment nor the Supreme Court on tariffs.

I suspect that's pressuring global equities at the margin this morning -- while the main culprit remains the middle east conflict.

Rational Analysis Notwithstanding

Seldom do we find our view of overall general conditions as inline with one of our research providers as it is presently with that of MRB Partners... I.e., the following snippets from their latest research report should sound very familiar to clients and regular blog readers:  

emphasis mine...

"The tight correlation between oil prices and global financial asset markets continues on a daily basis, subject to the ever-changing odds of a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz."

Morning Note: Very Messy Under the Surface -- And -- On Stocks and Interest Rates

What was looking like a decent start to the month for global equities in the premarket, got sideswiped by newsflashes like the following:

"Iran Halts Indirect Talks With U.S. Over Lebanon and Gaza Ceasefire Violations - Tasnim News

• Iranian negotiation team to stop dialogue and text exchanges through intermediaries
•  Move follows alleged violations of ceasefire conditions, including in Lebanon
•  Iranian officials demand immediate halt to Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon
•  Iran also demands full Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon before talks resume
•  Iran and resistance front reportedly resolved to fully block the Strait of Hormuz
•  Other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, could also be activated in response"

Yes, markets remain focused on the Iran conflict, despite the major indices floating around their all-time highs... Like I said yesterday (below), the underlying dynamic suggests the market has grown skeptical of resolution prospects: