Monday, June 1, 2026

Morning Note: Very Messy Under the Surface -- And -- On Stocks and Interest Rates

What was looking like a decent start to the month for global equities in the premarket, got sideswiped by newsflashes like the following:

"Iran Halts Indirect Talks With U.S. Over Lebanon and Gaza Ceasefire Violations - Tasnim News
  • Iranian negotiation team to stop dialogue and text exchanges through intermediaries
  •  Move follows alleged violations of ceasefire conditions, including in Lebanon
  •  Iranian officials demand immediate halt to Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon
  •  Iran also demands full Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon before talks resume
  •  Iran and resistance front reportedly resolved to fully block the Strait of Hormuz
  •  Other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, could also be activated in response"

Yes, markets remain focused on the Iran conflict, despite the major indices floating around their all-time highs... Like I said yesterday (below), the underlying dynamic suggests the market has grown skeptical of resolution prospects: