Morning Note

FYI clients, today happens to be "ex-dividend" day for a number of ETFs in our core allocation... Thus, for those of you who track this stuff daily, what you'll see today will be somewhat muted, as the affected ETFs will trade without the distributed quarterly dividend (i.e., lower), which will be credited back to your accounts this Wednesday.

In the meantime, here's a quick look* at the immediate-term setup:

Morning Market Note* — Monday, June 22

Stocks opened mixed this morning as investors weigh fresh signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East against a pivotal inflation reading later this week. The broad market is modestly higher, the Dow is leading with a gain of roughly four-tenths of a percent..

The bigger story is energy. Crude is down again this morning, sliding another couple of percent, after reports over the weekend of "encouraging progress" in U.S.–Iran talks. Both sides have reportedly agreed to a roadmap aimed at reaching a final deal within roughly sixty days. That said, the tone is not uniformly calm — there were also reports of friction during the first day of formal talks, with renewed threats tied to the Strait of Hormuz, so this remains a situation where headlines can move the tape in either direction. We continue to treat diplomatic announcements as separate from actual confirmation that energy supply is flowing freely, and we're watching the physical shipping data rather than the press releases.

This is a heavy data week. The marquee event is Thursday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and spending. We also get flash business activity readings on Tuesday, new home sales on Wednesday, and durable goods plus a final read on first-quarter growth on Thursday, closing with consumer sentiment Friday. Early signals from last month's pipeline data point toward a firm inflation print, which is worth keeping in mind.

The backdrop here is last week's Fed meeting, where policymakers held rates steady but struck a more cautious tone, with roughly half of officials now penciling in the possibility of a rate increase before year-end. Our read is that this hawkish projection is best understood as an acknowledgment of risk rather than a firm commitment to act. The internal conditions gauge we track has been improving steadily for several weeks, and our broader view remains that inflation is likely to prove stickier than many expect given the structural fiscal picture — a frame we think matters more for long-term positioning than any single week's oil headline.

Bottom line: a quiet, slightly risk-on open with energy giving back more ground on diplomacy hopes, but the real test comes Thursday with inflation data into a Fed that just signaled it's paying close attention.

This note is for informational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

*Prepared by Marty Mazorra, Chief Investment Officer, Private Wealth Advisors. Research synthesis and drafting assisted by AI tools under advisor review. All market views, analysis, and recommendations are those of the advisor.