Of course, given the latest action in markets, and the weekend headlines, there are bigger fish to fry in the minds of most people than last Friday's jobs report... That said, keep in mind, said report was not-small in terms of the conditions that characterized last week's swoon... Nevertheless, the world is waiting for tomorrow's opening market print with bated breath.
As I type, weekend markets are actually pointing to a (albeit slightly) green open for equities, for gold and even for bitcoin (which was also taken out to the woodshed last week)... Problem is, oil is up nearly 3% as well; which is contrary to what has been inspiring stocks, etc., in recent weeks... I.e., if all you would've told me is that oil's up 3% on a late June 2026 Sunday morning, I'd be telling you look out below come Monday's open!
So, at this juncture, for what it's worth -- which ain't much in the longer-term scheme of things -- unless something abruptly changes around the you-know-what dynamics presently driving the price of oil, I wouldn't put too much stock (so to speak) in a green open in stocks tomorrow morning.
In the meantime, here's your weekly roundup*, starting with the summary of our latest PWA Index scoring:
Client Note* — A Pullback in the Market, and a Steady Read Underneath
After nine straight weekly gains, the market took a step back, with the major indexes posting their sharpest weekly decline in months and the S&P 500 finishing down about 2.6% for the week. Our internal conditions gauge held up far better, easing only modestly to −10.45 from −8.96 — still negative, and a small move in the wrong direction, but a far cry from the volatility playing out in stock prices.
The pullback had a counterintuitive trigger: a strong May jobs report. Employers added more than double the jobs expected, which sounds like good news, but it pushed interest rates higher and dashed market hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year — and higher-for-longer rates weighed especially hard on the technology stocks that had led the market to its recent records. Beneath the headline, the data we track told a more nuanced story: the same week's softer signals, including rising unemployment claims and a multi-year high in announced layoffs, suggest the job market may be cooling even as the headline figures impress. Inflation, meanwhile, remained firm and above the Fed's target, which is the deeper reason rate relief stays out of reach.
Energy remains central to that inflation picture. Oil prices have eased from their conflict-driven highs as hopes for a lasting calm around the Strait of Hormuz have grown, but they sit well above pre-conflict levels, and that uneven progress is part of why investors turned more cautious — rotating out of richly valued growth areas and back toward steadier, more defensive ones. None of this changes our overall view. We remain positioned for slower growth alongside persistent inflation, with a portfolio built to hold up across a range of outcomes rather than betting heavily on any one of them. Weeks like this one — where the headline number swings sharply but the underlying conditions barely budge — are a useful reminder of why we build portfolios that way.
*Prepared by Marty Mazorra, Chief Investment Officer, Private Wealth Advisors. Research synthesis and drafting assisted by AI tools under advisor review. All market views, analysis, and recommendations are those of the advisor.
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