Evening Rundown

Quite the eventful day today... Below is your evening rundown*. 

There'll be the usual deeper macro dive coming your way over the weekend:

Evening Note* — Thursday, June 11, 2026

A relief rally, and why the shape of our portfolio mattered

After a brutal Wednesday — when a three-year-high inflation print sent the major indexes to their lows — markets reversed hard today on signs that the Iran situation may be moving toward de-escalation. Reports out of Iranian state media suggested a deal is close, and risk assets responded in kind. The Russell 2000 led the way, up roughly 3%, with the Nasdaq (+2.5%), Dow (+1.9%), and S&P 500 (+1.75%) all posting healthy gains. The Dow climbed back above 50,000, and the market's "fear gauge," the VIX, fell nearly 12%.

Under the surface, the move had a distinct character. The leadership came from technology, industrials, and materials — the economically sensitive corners of the market that tend to do well when investors grow more confident. The laggards were the defensive and war-premium trades: energy, consumer staples, and real estate. In short, this was the market exhaling — unwinding the fear that had been priced in over weeks of Middle East tension.

How our core allocation behaved

Our core strategy reacted strongly to the upside today.

The gains came precisely from the positions we have been rotating toward in recent weeks — the risk-on, cyclical, and international names positioned for exactly this kind of de-escalation. 

Just as importantly, the things that lagged were supposed to lag. Our energy and midstream positions gave a little back as oil fell — which is the entire point of de-escalation. And our protective hedges (index put options and a put on our gold position) declined in value on the day. That is not a problem; it is the cost of insurance working as designed. On a strong up day, we want our hedges to be the soft spot. The matching call options on the same indexes did the opposite, gaining sharply and capturing the upside. Together, that two-sided options structure is built to perform on large moves in either direction — and today it did its job on the up-move.

Gold itself rose more than 3% and continues to be held as a real-rate and fiscal-discipline position rather than a simple geopolitical hedge — a distinction that matters in this cycle.

The tension worth watching

Here is the wrinkle. Stocks celebrated today, but the underlying inflation data has not fully cooperated. This morning's wholesale inflation report (PPI) came in hotter than expected, running at its fastest annual pace in nearly four years — on the heels of yesterday's hot consumer inflation reading. Oil has fallen sharply as the war premium drains out, which over time should ease inflation pressure. But the damage already in the pipeline keeps the Federal Reserve effectively frozen: markets now place near-certain odds on the Fed holding rates steady at its upcoming meeting, and several major banks have pushed their rate-cut expectations all the way out to 2027.

So today was, in our read, a sentiment relief rally sitting on top of a macro backdrop that is still fundamentally stagflationary — slowing-growth concerns layered against sticky inflation. The positioning relief is real and welcome. The underlying regime has not changed. That is why we continue to hold deliberately offsetting exposures rather than making a single directional bet: it lets the portfolio participate in days like today while keeping protection in place for the days that aren't.

What's next

The marquee event tomorrow is the SpaceX IPO, which begins trading on the Nasdaq — the largest public debut in market history, valuing the company near $1.75 trillion. We expect significant two-way volatility on day one, but the more analytically interesting moment comes a few weeks out, when the stock becomes eligible for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 around early July. That inclusion would force index funds to buy billions of dollars of the stock mechanically. Make no mistake, any objective valuation analysis suggests that the company is priced for more than perfection, which in no way means you won't see a notable upside pop as it begins trading, and beyond. It is a situation we are studying closely; we hold no core position at this point.

As always, our process stays the same: stay diversified across offsetting exposures, keep dry powder ready, and let the structure of the portfolio — not a forecast — do the heavy lifting.

This note is for informational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

*Prepared by Marty Mazorra, Chief Investment Officer, Private Wealth Advisors. Research synthesis and drafting assisted by AI tools under advisor review. All market views, analysis, and recommendations are those of the advisor.