Monday, February 5, 2018

More on History and Volatility

Not that we're not generally active here on the blog, but it's times like these when we get to step it up several notches. 

It's tempting to pull from the archives of past market corrections and offer up the quotes, videos, stats and so on from times when the market saw every bit (more at times) of the rapid % declines we're presently experiencing; times when the Dow was multiple thousands of points lower than where it is right now. We of course may indeed resort to that, but, for this particular post, I can draw from something as recent as 2 weeks ago.

Bonus Stat of the Day: Services Sector Remarkably Strong

This morning's release of the Institute for Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Index for January speaks to the strong reading we're getting from our macro index (illustrated for you in this morning's video commentary). Read Bloomberg's notes for the detail:

Video Commentary: The Facts (the data) As To Why We're Not Remotely Concerned 'At This Juncture'

Toward the end of the video I suggest that follow through from Friday's selloff over next few days or weeks should be something to expect. I also emphasize that it would be the norm, and that the lack of volatility we've experienced over the past year is anything but.

Stats of the Day: Global Economy

Well, the recent dip in stocks has nothing to do with the strength of the global economy. Here are the freshly released service sector Purchasing Manager Indices for 13 major economies. 50 and above denotes economic expansion:

Friday, February 2, 2018

Quote of the Day: 3% Pullbacks Since the 1920s

If you're thinking this week was at all unusual, you'll think differently after you read the following.

This Week's Second Message: My Thoughts From Last November

Don't know if you're at all rattled by today's "plunge" in stock prices, but, seriously, we haven't been kidding here on the blog when we've said that such action is long overdue, and, in fact, necessary for the ongoing health of what remains for now a bull market.

I keep a journal that I've found to be most helpful for my own keeping-things-in-perspective. Below is the 11/10/2017 entry (unedited, other than bolding). 

The Heck Is.........

So, the U.S. economy created a net 200,000 new jobs in January, employee wages rose at the fastest pace in 9 years, and 95.9% of Americans show up somewhere to work most days of the week. On top of that, half of the S&P 500's constituents have reported 4th quarter results with 77% beating analysts' earnings estimates and 67% exceeding revenue expectations.

And, as I type, the Dow's down 400 points. What the heck?