Morning Note: The Lesson

If I had a nickel for every time of late that I've referenced the 90s tech boom (then bust) while discussing the frenzy that's going on in certain spots in today's market, well... I'd need a suitcase to lug them around in.

In his note this morning, economist Peter Boockvar sympathizes, and reminds us (via the 1998 Forbes cover below) of how the newbie traders of the 90s -- SO much like today's -- really thought they had Wall Street's number:

Macro Update: Slight Uptick -- And -- More on Bubbles, the Fed, Inflation, etc.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Morning Note: All the Cover the Fed Needs -- And -- My Advice to the "Student"-Trader

So, equity futures were struggling a bit to find direction this morning before the release of the May jobs report. As I type, however, 10 minutes before the market open, and 50 minutes after it was reported that 559,000 folks found jobs, futures are trading nicely in the green.

Morning Note: Fed Failure Not An Option

Jobs news this morning suggests that last month's hiccup was, well, maybe just a hiccup. Payroll company ADP says 978k folks found jobs in May, which is an astounding 328k more than expected, while weekly jobless claims continue to come down: 387k in this morning's report, vs 385k expected and 21k lower than last week. This Friday's official May jobs number will be telling...

This Week's Message: The Dollar's the Loser

A client intimated in a recent meeting that, based on our assessment of probabilities for each of our current core positions going forward, we're not as bearish on stocks as my general vibe (here on the blog) might otherwise suggest.

Morning Note: Well, Acetone's Cheap -- And -- Top-Down Desperation

While, like I keep saying, getting the longer-term inflation story right will be key to investing success the next few years -- a most hotly debated story these days, mind you -- there's no debating that it's presently paying us a serious visit.

Morning Note: Always Look to Disconfirm

Weekend and overnight global economic news (impressive Purchasing Mgrs Indices in particular) presumably explains a very nice pop higher in equities as June gets underway. 

But one thing that caught my attention immediately this morning was the pop in the VIX and in VXN (implied volatility for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices); they were up 3.10% and 4.66% respectively. There's typically a strong inverse relationship between the two, as rising implied vol suggests increased hedging among options traders.