Monday, February 7, 2022

Morning Note: No IT Deflation (so far) This Go Round -- And -- "We're Out of Everything", Says Goldman...

Often during client meetings I'll point to the large monitor on my office wall, not always to discuss a featured graph, but at times to discuss the monitor itself -- the fact that it costs a mere fraction of what its far inferior predecessor would've run me, say, 20 years ago.

Yes, one key deflationary feature of all of that productivity-enhancing information technology has been its own declining price over the years. 

Friday, February 4, 2022

Macro Update: Mixed All Over (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Yep, It's Time to Drain the Punchbowl

Well, we can scratch the notion (explored yesterday) that Omicron will do a number on the jobs number. At least that's the reading from this morning's "Employment Situation Report." 

The consensus was for 125k jobs added in January, but, particularly after ADP's report showing a 301k decline, expectations were all over the place. The actual number was +467k.

Thursday, February 3, 2022

Stocks and Dollar Quicktake (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Jobs Anomaly -- And -- Rings Familiar

ADP's private payrolls report was a shocker this week; showing a loss of 301k US jobs. Expectations were for a 180k increase. Clearly, all of those anecdotes about closed coffee shops, etc., during otherwise peak hours, for lack of available workers (read Omicron, and perhaps confident workers) explains the anomaly that has an economy that sports a record 11 million job openings losing jobs at a clip that is exceedingly rare outside of recessions.

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Morning Note: Manufacturing Still (relatively) Strong, But So's Inflation -- And -- A Critically Important Insight

Yesterday's release of the January ISM Manufacturing report tells of a bit of softening in terms of overall activity among the nation's factories. 

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Morning Note: Headwinds Presently Prevail

At the end of each month we score our newest barometer; the PWA Equity Market Conditions Index. With it we assess the present signals/state of affairs expressed by the US dollar, interest rates, monetary policy, fiscal policy, US equity valuations, sector leadership, macro conditions, the geopolitical landscape, S&P 500 technicals, US equity market breadth, market sentiment and credit market conditions.