Morning Note: Never Cut and Dried

While yesterday looked a lot like Monday in terms of the move (down) in the S&P 500, the signaling from some other asset classes was markedly different.

For example, Monday saw gold and treasury bonds get whacked every bit as much as stocks, while yesterday, as stocks continued to get shellacked, the 2 turned in nice gains. 

Morning Note: What a Difference a Data Point Can Make!

So, China ramps up its own breakout from covid restrictions and the ISM US Services Index comes in (yesterday) at a surprisingly optimistic 56.5 (above 50 denotes expansion)!

Morning Note: Equity Market Conditions Remain Negative

According to the latest scoring of our own Equity Market Conditions Index (EMCI), the go-forward equity market setup, while still net-negative, has improved a bit over the past month.

Here's the summary from our internal report:

Today's Log Entry

From our internal market log:

12/3/2022

The near-term outlook for equities has grown quite fuzzy… 

We anticipated the strong positive move off of the October low, but defined it as yet another bear market rally, doomed to die near the 200-dma and the bear market trend line… Which is precisely where the SP500 sits today.

Economic and Stock Market Update: Recession Risk Rising (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Key Highlights -- And -- November Wage Data

Here are some key highlights from our latest messaging herein:

Morning Note: Dovey

Last night's log entry:

11/30/2022

Fed-speak right up to the day before Powell’s Brookings speech today was explicitly about smaller (than 75 bps) hikes going forward, although with ultimately a notably higher terminal rate when it’s all said and done, and extremely low odds of a rate cut in 2023.