Morning Note: Stay tuned...

While we labeled the short-term technical setup for stocks "ambiguous," we noted that the technical setup for bonds, and for the dollar, leaned bearish for stocks, and, per yesterday's note, overall positioning suggested that traders were on-balance betting on further declines after last week's drubbing.

Well, the thing about positioning, particularly when it's notably off-sides, is that its unwinding can bring on quite the violent market reaction... This morning is no exception (monster rally!), for, as we suggested in yesterday's note:

History, and today's price action (except in the VIX), says CPI's coming in cool tomorrow (not a prediction btw)...

Fascinating action in stocks today! 

If you told me at the beginning of today's session that the VIX (tracks implied volatility in SP500 options contracts) was going to close up 9.51%, I would've guessed that stocks would take a significant hit on the session. I mean the two have carried a daily negative correlation coefficient this year of -0.8 (that's negative!).

Well, I would've guessed resoundingly wrong! The S&P 500 closed up 1.43% on the session!

Morning Note: The Bulls Need Inflation Cooling and Powell Cooing

This week will be, to put it mildly, interesting... CPI Tuesday, Fed decision and, most importantly, Powell's press conference Wednesday, and then the largest options expiration of the year come Friday... Oh, and not to mention, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England both hold their policy meetings on Thursday.

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot: Signals From the Dollar & Bonds

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: A Virtual Tossup for the Short-Term Equity Market Setup

Last evening's log entry:

12/8/2022

Tomorrow’s PPI number, and next week’s CPI print – while some of the data suggest they could very well come in soft – with regard to equities, it’s all about how they score relative to expectations, and the extent to which traders have price in the consensus bias ahead of time.

Morning Note: The Good Old Days

I'm having to stretch my thinking this morning to come up with something that isn't just a repackaged repeat of my most recent messaging... And, alas, it hasn't yet been a week since our last highlights-of-recent-messaging post... 

So, given some of the conversations I've been having of late with folks who seem gloom-ridden by the current state of political and geopolitical affairs, I'm thinking it's as good a time as any to offer up an essay I penned several years ago in an effort to shine some positive light on otherwise gloomy global setups.

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.