Quote of the Day

Nassim Taleb in his excellent book Antifragile stresses the point that I constantly stress herein about the market (did just yesterday in fact):

In the complex world, the notion of “cause” itself is suspect; it is either nearly impossible to detect or not really defined— another reason to ignore newspapers, with their constant supply of causes for things.

Quote of the Day: What the tape is 'presently' telling...

Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, echoes the last sentence in my morning blog post:

The long-term bullish case is still intact. The bumpy policy road was expected with Trump in charge. Investors are betting once Trump is done pleasing his base with executive orders, he'll become the dealmaker-in-chief on taxes and infrastructure and the other market-pleasing policies. Krinsky says the tape is telling you this much.

"The evidence for a meaningful top is lacking," wrote the technical analyst. "We would welcome any weakness as a buying opportunity, rather than viewing it as the start of something bigger."

The Administration's 'Market' Faces Face-Off

As I've suggested here a number of times since the election, from an economic/investment standpoint, the new administration wears two distinct faces.

Its pro-market face expresses a desire to deregulate industry, demystify the corporate tax code and rebuild some infrastructure. Its anti-market face expresses a contempt for existing trade agreements and a defiance of international protocol.

Quote of the Day: Declining Bullishness is Bullish

Like the folks at Bespoke Investment Group, I feel better about the market when the majority of individual investors don't:

While consumers continue to feel more and more positive about the economy, the post-election jump we saw in bullish stock market sentiment has faded quickly. This week’s AAII bullish sentiment reading of individual investors dipped down to 31.58%. It has now given up nearly all of its post-election bump. As we always mention, this constant skepticism about the market from individual investors is actually a good thing for the long-term health of stocks in our view.

In case you missed it, here's the link to my January 14 post, where I dug into the topic. Here's a snippet:

Fascinating! In all nine instances when bullishness was reaching its lows -- and yes it was indeed low in those instances (under 40%) -- the market was either beginning. or in the midst of, an impressive upward run. So, apparently it does indeed pay to be the contrarian -- just more so when the crowd's the most gloomy.  

Thinking on Protectionism

Aside from the monster problems with protectionism (like the hit to our small local businesses who employ 2/3rds of our workforce, and exist largely because you and I can buy items from countries who produce them the cheapest [saving money with which to lavish onto our local employers] -- not to mention the subtle robbing of our ability/freedom to do business wherever and with whomever we choose), it threatens the stories behind the headlines below (save for the last one). Stories, by the way, that (save for the last one) not only make America richer, they make it safer. Per (it's believed) Frederic Bastiat:

Where goods don't cross borders, soldiers will.

This Week's Message: Should You Fade the Rally?

I've been asked a few times lately if, from a trading (as opposed to a long-term investing) perspective, I'd fade this rally. Meaning, at these levels, could a trader make money betting on a fall?

The thing about the market is that it can fall from any height, be it Dow 20,000 or Dow 2,000. And whether it hits that level from above or below doesn't help us all that much in terms of guessing where it goes from there.

Quote of the Day: "I Ain't Worried"

Douglas Merlin Carlson -- the man famous for his Rustic Rub seasoning -- shared his sage wisdom with me today:

I ain't buyin', I ain't sellin', so I ain't worried about it!