Quick Pre-Holiday Update

The stock market keeps on rolling; although not quite recapturing the trend line it dipped below last week. That said, I think we can make the dashed line below (see chart) the new uptrend line for now. The negative momentum divergence (panel 2), and present overboughtness (panel 3) make this a still dangerous-looking short-term setup:

Bonus Quote of the Day

Many times over the years, herein and in video commentaries, we've touched on the signals inherent in overall volume (total shares trading hands) relative to price action. 

Quotes of the Day: Timeless -- And Very Timely -- Wisdom!

The following excerpts from the greatest investing book ever written, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, speaks volumes about where we find ourselves today. Clients will know exactly what I mean:

This Week's Message: Carefully Rising To The Challenge

I gotta hand it to the bulls, the equity market (on the surface* [see supplemental charts below]) remains the definition of resilient! Of course, as we've been stating from the moment we became guarded, it would/will be positive trade news that keeps the market afloat.

How To Crunch The Jobs Data

As we've stated herein, we're paying very close attention to the U.S. employment picture, as it's our view that a rolling over of the labor market will be the straw that ultimately breaks the back of the economic/stock market bull camel; now on its longest-ever journey.

A Contrarian's Dream!

I totally get why traders are bullish right here, but man it's getting awfully crowded on the bull's side of the boat!

One of our weekly to-dos is to track futures speculators' positioning among various currencies, commodities and stock indices.

Headline of the Day: The Fed Sees Trouble Brewing

In a review meeting yesterday my astute client stated that he agreed with our assessment of conditions and was happy to play defense for the time being, but struggled with why the market continues to hold up.