Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: No Tailwind From Good News....

From yesterday's note:

"As for this morning's data releases, three things of note: "Headline" retail sales for August came in above expectations (although, "core", not so much), which supports our mild-recession thesis, but of course doesn't quell concerns over inflation... Same can be said about a weekly jobless claims number that came in lower for the 5th straight week..."

Morning Note: The Retail Investor Force

 I expressed the following in yesterday's morning note:

"...we've come full circle. Globalization has, at least politically-speaking, run its course -- while wealth and income inequality have reached historic proportions. Therefore, the kinds of labor/consumer-friendly, protectionist, inflation-stoking policies that predated Volker, Regan and Thatcher are resoundingly back in vogue."

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Icing on the Cake

So, yesterday delivered the worst day for the S&P 500 since June 2020... That has to be a monster setback, right? 

Well, not to downplay the pain, but that -4.32% move took us merely back to last Tuesday...

Morning Note: Interesting Action

Yesterday's action was interesting from the get go... Not so much the follow-through from Friday's rally, but the fact that the VIX (tracks the implied volatility price in SP500 options) stayed notably bid start to finish.

Let's compare yesterday's action in the VIX (bottom panel, SP500 on top) to Friday's...

Morning Note: Beyond CPI

Markets will be intently focused on tomorrow's CPI report... Anticipation of a softer-than-forecast reading coming off of uber-bearish investor sentiment (along with a large net short position among SP500 futures speculators, and options dealers positioned to provide some oomph should the index push above 4,000) combined last Friday to offer up a preview of what to expect should, indeed, August's inflation come in the least bit cool. Of course a hot reading would likely inspire the opposite.