Morning Note: Will Wall Street Get What it Wants?

I couldn't agree more with the first line in the following quote.

"Wall Street forecasts what it wants, it doesn't forecast necessarily what's going to happen.  

Now, sometimes, what it wants happens and their forecasts are prescient. 

What Wall Street wants right now is lower interest rates. 

They want lower rates because they see 5% money market rates as competition for the stock market."  

--Jim Bianco

Stock Market Snapshot: Not What An Early-Stage Bull Market Typically Looks Like (video)

Dear Clients, here's a very brief, yet important, assessment to be sure and take in.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: The 'F' Word -- And Your Weekly Results Update

If you're getting tired of hearing about inflation, or the potential lack thereof going forward, sorry, this will be a top topic of discussion for I suspect many years to come.

As for the time being, recent "hotter" than expected CPI and PPI -- potentially PCE this week -- notwithstanding, I do believe that before the current cycle runs its ultimate course, those who, on behalf of their stock positions, pray for dis(or de)flation will indeed see their prayers answered in the affirmative.

Thing is, beyond the knee-jerk rally that'll no doubt come on "cooler" inflation data and sweettalk from the Fed, there's, alas, that 'F' word that'll ultimately be rolling off the tongues of many a Wall Street analyst, economist, market guru, yada yada!

Pockets Of Strength, What the Fed -- Despite Their Panicky Impulses -- Hopes to Avoid, and Ubiquitous Copper (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Game Still On For AI Stocks, And An Overall Equity Market, Yields and Dollar Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: While Some Key Conditions Improve, Leading Indicators Still Warn, And Healthcare Well-Positioned

The following from BCA's narrative around this week's US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) release should sound very familiar to clients and regular readers:

"Indeed, the US economy has been robust and the data do not point to an imminent recession. Financial conditions have eased, home prices have risen and consumer sentiment has rebounded. All these factors are supporting economic activity.

However, our base case remains that a recession is likely in late 2024 or early 2025. Beneath the surface of the resilient labor market, some of the leading indicators are weakening. Similarly, default rates on credit cards and auto loans have risen and the tailwind from excess pandemic savings is fading.

Stock Market Snapshot and a Look at NVDA's Technical Setup (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.