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Thanks Marty! This video and your blog are very valuable. It is always interesting to analyze the timing of Technical vs. Fundamental. I was surprised to see a bounce back from Friday "Low". I do think the market always overreact and overanalyze of everything and there is a reason for it. I used to work for a trading company in Switzerland. I was told by a trader that the only way for them to make money is from a huge swing to either negative or positive direction. Friday was no exception that someone felt a bottom was reached. Who knows what will happen next week. But I do think there is some sort of temporary momentum going for the positive side. China can't shut down forever. Shanghai is slowly starting to emerge from a six-week lockdown. Anyway, thanks again.
ReplyDeleteThat's good feedback Sam. Yeah, a bounce here makes a lot of technical sense. The conditions that "typically" surround a durable bottom, however, have not been met, and, as I've been pointing out, the technicals (currently... assuming no recession) point to ~3,500 on the S&P. That said, as I also pointed out, a pop to as high as ~4,300 before we ultimately carve out a bottom wouldn't surprise me either... Bottom line, the market's dynamic, and so must be our analysis -- i.e., all of these assumptions are subject to change as things unfold...
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