Quote of the Day (and our bottom line)

The following quote also rings true when it comes to investing:

"...in wars and policy making, generals and policy makers fight the last war, not the war of the future."

--Dirk Willer, Alex Saunders; Trading Global Macro Markets

It's been my experience over these past 4+ decades that investors and money managers in general tend to presume that the past is always prologue.

Now, that said, I do appreciate the Santayana quote “if you don’t remember the past you’re bound to repeat it.” However, more than just understanding what happened in the past, we have to understand the context, the macro environment, the policy incentives and constraints, etc., under which a given event(s) occurred to have any chance of placing legitimate odds on present day outcomes.

On that note, as I keep stressing, the present and go-forward macro regime is vastly different than the one that has occurred over the past four decades... Which, indeed, demands that we (PWA) forever identify where we are in the business and capital cycles, as well as in the slower moving macro and policy regimes that meander through time.

While our core allocation -- remaining notably diversified -- effectively captures our long-term thesis, we nevertheless expect quite the bumpy ride heading into 2027.

Bottom line:  Our patience (remaining non-reactive to short-term swings), while painstakingly assessing, and reflecting, long-term conditions and setups, is essential to our clients' long-term investment success.