Morning Note: Not A Good Look....

Suffice to say that while yesterday's rally was very impressive, the underlying picture -- technically speaking -- remains concerning. 

Charts of the Day: Commodities Traders Need Far More Convincing...

Just a quick note on today's J. Powell press conference.

While stocks rallied on Powell poopooing a .75% hike at a future meeting and on the Fed delivering half the expected monthly balance sheet reduction (for the moment), as for the goal of taming the hottest inflation in 4 decades... umm, well, have a look at today's moves in:

Market Snapshot (video)

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Morning Note: A Dose of Reality -- And -- Zero Wiggle Room

So, you bet, a 12.4% year-to-date decline in the S&P 500 and a 19.5% year-to-date hit to the Nasdaq is nothing so sneeze at. I mean, I'm sure folks are feeling it, particularly those who thought they were playing it "safe" with the old tried and true 60 (stocks)/40 (bonds) mix. That last one (using Blackrock's 60/40 ETF as our proxy) is down 10.5% on the year so far.

Morning Note: So Now You Know

So, when you think about the big event of the week -- the Federal Reserve May Policy Meeting -- going on today and tomorrow, what you're thinking about is the institution's impact on financial conditions. Are their policies fostering loose and easy conditions (plenty of liquidity and low interest rates), or tight conditions (low, or less, liquidity and rising interest rates)?

Quote of the Day: Growth Down, Inflation Up

The fiscal response to Covid shattered all historic norms and established precedent, and, therefore, foments expectations of reactive relief measures (read support checks, etc.) whenever the populace experiences heightened pain.

Morning Note: Commodities Continue to Correct, But the Long-Term Setup Remains Extremely Bullish!

Global equity and commodity markets are starting off what will be a tense week (at least until Wednesday when the Fed wraps up its May policy meeting) on the back foot. China's PMI's (Purchasing Managers Indices) weak readings are exacerbating global demand fears.

Coincidentally, I, among other things, once again touched on China in our internal market log over the weekend. 

Here are a couple snippets: