A Weak Weekly Chart, CPI Watch, Apple Risk (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Nvidia Again, Sectors Warn, And Your Weekly Results Update

After a rough start to the year for equities, all it took was an announcement yesterday from last year's AI darling, Nvidia, of "new products" to set tech stocks afire, recapturing a little better than half of last week's losses for the sector.

As for Nvidia's technical setup, yep, that (green circle) is indeed a bullish breakout... Our momentum indicators (bottom 2 panels), however, call its sustainability into serious question:

Economic Update And A Look At Long-Term Stock Mkt Technicals (video)

I came across the following from premium research firm Variant Perception over the weekend. My personal observations over the past 4 decades has this resonating with me in a big way!

"The consensus view has a tendency to assume existing trends will continue and fail to anticipate the turning point. But that is exactly when you get the maximum disagreement between what people think will happen, and what actually does happen. It is here markets tend to have their most outsized moves, and the ones that are most beneficial for traders and investors to anticipate." 

 

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

The Character of a Last Leg Down, And a Quick Look at Stocks, Yields and the Dollar (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: When (if it's going to) Will the Services Sector Follow Manufacturing Into Recession?

While the sentiment among survey respondents wasn't all bad, yesterday's release of the December ISM Manufacturing Index says the US manufacturing sector remains in recession.

Here's from the report:  

Market Snapshot: Tough Setup (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Equity Market Conditions Don't Allow For Adding Risk Right Here

Here's the intro to our latest internal equity market conditions report, along with our US dollar snapshot:

12/31/2023 PWA EQUITY MARKET CONDITIONS INDEX (EMCI): -16.67 (+25 from 11/30/2023)

SP500 Index December 2023, +4.42%:

SP500 Equal Weight Index December 2023, +6.66%:

As we pointed out in November’s report, despite an overall deterioration in conditions, strong seasonality was such that a continuation of the then rally should come as no surprise.