Overboughtness + Extreme Sentiment = Trouble, Some Housing Data, Shipping, Retail Sales, yada yada (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Late-Cycle Dynamics, Retail Sales Surprise, AI Priced for Perfection, And, Again, the Yen

Small Caps Rally!!!

The action over the past week in the equity market has been extraordinary… Well, okay, I’ll just say it’s been unusual (at least seemingly, until you scroll further), to put it mildly.

It certainly bolsters the bull’s narrative that this historically-bifurcated market (the 10 biggest SP500 stocks doing ~80% of the year-to-date heavy lifting, the remainder utterly languishing) will be remedied via the rest of the market playing catch up.

Inflation Cools/Markets React, Stretched Sentiment, Fed-Cut Market Implications, Small Caps & the Yen (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Weekly Highlights: The Fed, Small Cap Prospects, The Yen, And a Critical Macro Thesis

Fed's Getting Worried

From Powell’s comments to congress today – it appears as though the Fed is beginning to fret recession risk right here:

Quote of the Day: The Difference Between Investing and Speculating

Suffice to say there's historic speculation priced into today's US equity market.

Definition: 

A Suspect Service Sector, Signals In the Jobs Report, September Rate Cut Likely, Market Implications, yada yada (video)

Dear Clients, here's another very important update on overall conditions to take in when you have a few minutes!

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Your Weekly Highlights (important stuff!)

Among the many things that have that tech bubble smell, the present valuation gap between US equities and the rest of the world is like nothing we've seen since then.

US (SP500) price to sales ratio in white, Developed Foreign Markets orange, Emerging Markets blue... Red arrow at the tech bubble peak:

And here's the actual performance for each from the tech bubble peak to the real estate bubble peak (US stocks returned essentially zero during that period):