Friday, March 30, 2018

Quote of the Day -- And -- Protectionism is a Bipartisan Affliction...

Last Tuesday we explained why the market aggressively sold off (after opening with strong momentum following Monday's 660 point rally in the Dow) on news that Washington was about to take serious measures to limit foreign capital investment into the U.S. economy. 

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

More On Why We Like Financials Right Here

On March 13th we devoted our weekly message to why we like financials right here. Sharing our view of a given sector's prospects serves to accomplish two aims: One, it helps clients understand what they see us doing within their portfolios and, two, it can offer some insight into general economic conditions -- as each sector's prospects are largely dependent upon the macro setup.

The Trade Deficit Was Perfect Last Month!

Now hear me out, I'll keep it short:

While this morning's trade report provides yet more fuel for the Administration's fire (the "deficit" came in above consensus expectations), I would argue that it was actually a very bullish report and totally supports Washington's ambitions going forward.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Quotes of the Day: Can't Have It Both Ways!

From the get go, we've expressed our concerns with regard to the risk of the Administration making good on what many thought was mere protectionist rhetoric; while all along acknowledging that its other ambitions, like tax reform and deregulation, had absolutely moved the business sentiment needle in a positive direction. And the latter is no small deal when it comes to the economy. I.e., when producers and consumers feel good about their lots, they become very stimulative economic agents.

Like I Said, Still in the Woods!

Like I suggested this morning, we're still very much stuck in the short-term woods. Here's the latest out of Washington:

This Week's Message: Rally Makes Sense, Not Out of the Short-Term Woods, and Long-Term Continues to Look Good...

In Saturday's blog post we said that the backdrop for equities is such that if the U.S. protectionist push 
"doesn't get drawn out long enough to crack the general setup we'll see a sharp rally in stocks, likely to new highs." 

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Headlines of the Day: Mnuchin Looking To Calm Markets Come Monday

While the market's understandable tanking last Thursday and Friday -- along with the accelerated selling right at the close for the week -- bodes bearish for tomorrow morning, here are a couple of news items that could offer stocks a respite: