Saturday, March 24, 2018

Quick Thought On Near-Term Prospects For The Market

Here's a snippet from this morning's entry to our internal log. In essence, it's what I'm thinking about the immediate market impact of recent events, as well as the near-term prospects for equities: 
The global economy is exhibiting across the board health that it hasn't seen in years, and it's so welcomed by the world that there's very little stomach for unnecessary politically-inspired turmoil. The backdrop for equities is such that if this (the multiple [NAFTA, steel/aluminum tariffs, China tariffs, etc.] trade disputes) doesn't get drawn out long enough to crack the general setup we'll see a sharp rally in stocks, likely to new highs. 
Seasonally-speaking we're in about a 5-week window for a monster rally; meaning, traders are fully aware that March and April are historically the two best months of the year for stocks. The late-January/early-February correction was perfect timing; meaning, it was a breather that would've provided a huge springboard heading into the March/April period. The tariffs have effectively cut the legs (the springs) right out from under the market...
That said, as long as this nonsense doesn't persist long enough to do real damage to general conditions (first via a depreciation in business sentiment), we can be in the middle of what is seasonally-speaking a typically rough time for the market (May to November) and still see a substantial upside move; it just won't be as easy and straight as it would've been had it occurred, say, within the next 1-4 weeks.
Without near-term resolutions the market will likely trade in volatile fashion (with a downside bias), while we continue to closely monitor macro conditions.


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