Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


Morning Note: The Fed's Fine Fix

This from Bespoke Investment Group's note this morning says lots about the present setup:

Emphasis mine...

"Yesterday, WMT had its largest one-day decline since the 1987 crash and now TGT is on pace to do the same. The experiences of both companies further reinforce the point that we are operating in one of the most complicated macro environments that any company or investor has had to deal with. Few companies are so entwined into so many aspects of the US economy as WMT and TGT, and their logistics and supply chain operations rival or exceed those of most other companies. If they're having these types of issues keeping up with the rapidly changing environment, who isn't?"

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Morning Note: Just Assessing Probabilities

This morning's rally in stocks should come as no surprise if you've been with me on the recent videos. Short-term technical patterns have been pointing to the potential for a strong oversold rally.

Here's yesterday's entry to our internal market log:

Monday, May 16, 2022

Morning Note: "A Key Risk?"

"The bottom line? Supply chains and inflation remain in flux, but there are signs that these issues could start to work themselves out in the second half. If they do, a less hawkish FOMC could be the market surprise for the second half. A key risk, though? Economic activity remains strong, but there are legitimate signals that demand has peaked."

Let that -- from Bespoke Investment Group's weekend note -- sink in "A key risk, though? Economic activity remains strong"... 

Friday, May 13, 2022

Our Fear/Greed Indicator Is Reading Green...

In Monday's morning note I made the case for a potential "oversold bounce" in the stock market this week. I mentioned the possibility again in last evening's video commentary. 

Morning Note -- And -- Economic Update (video)

Per last evening's look at the short-term S&P 500 setup (video featured below), a relief rally is certainly in the cards right here. As I type, equity market futures are confirming that notion. Whether or not it sticks, well... of course that remains to be seen.

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Market Snapshot/Reality Check (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


Morning Note: Be Patient, But Only When.........

So, while yesterday's release of the May CPI number came in hotter than the equity market (actors in the aggregate) had hoped, and than economists had forecast, this morning's PPI (Producer Price Index), came in on the nose of consensus expectations (up 0.5% month-over-month versus 1.4% the previous month). In terms of market reaction, zilch! S&P 500 futures were down 0.85% coming into the number, they're down 0.76% as I type (2 minutes ahead of the open).

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Morning Note: Timidity...

While listening to Bloomberg live this morning to catch the March CPI number, and the market's response, an interview with former Federal Reserve Board member Bill Dudley captured my attention.

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Morning Note: "Ironically"

Yesterday's (and overnight in the futures market) rally in treasuries (yields lower) comports with the notion we explored yesterday; that softer than expected inflation data (CPI due tomorrow) could inspire an oversold bounce this week (but don't hold your breath).

Premarket action (a rally) in equities suggests traders may be sniffing that potential out. 

Monday, May 9, 2022

Market Snapshot/Reality Check (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


Morning Note: Maybe An Oversold Bounce in the Offing, But Still An Otherwise Messy Setup...

An oversold bounce makes some sense this week, but nothing here looks like a bottom's forming...

Here's from Saturday's entry to our internal market log:

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Quote of the Day -- And -- Asleep at the Wheel?

Way back in 1984, on the day after my 21st birthday, I had what it took to get hired at the firm now known as The Principal Financial Group. That is, I had a pulse...

Friday, May 6, 2022

Economic Update and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


Morning Note: No Bad News on Jobs, So No Good News for Stocks

US stock futures popped a tad higher at 5:30am pt when the jobs number was released. While the number -- the establishment survey number -- came in at 428k, which was 58k higher than expected, the month-on-month hourly earnings miss (.3% vs .5% expected), the household survey number showing a loss of 353k jobs and revisions (establishment survey) totaling -39k for the prior 2 months, had, I suspect, the market thinking maybe there's less inflationary pressure percolating in the jobs setup.

Thursday, May 5, 2022

Pondering...

Just kinda sitting back this morning and pondering the market mood...

Thinking about clients; thinking about what they're thinking about the market...

Morning Note: Not A Good Look....

Suffice to say that while yesterday's rally was very impressive, the underlying picture -- technically speaking -- remains concerning. 

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Charts of the Day: Commodities Traders Need Far More Convincing...

Just a quick note on today's J. Powell press conference.

While stocks rallied on Powell poopooing a .75% hike at a future meeting and on the Fed delivering half the expected monthly balance sheet reduction (for the moment), as for the goal of taming the hottest inflation in 4 decades... umm, well, have a look at today's moves in:

Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


Morning Note: A Dose of Reality -- And -- Zero Wiggle Room

So, you bet, a 12.4% year-to-date decline in the S&P 500 and a 19.5% year-to-date hit to the Nasdaq is nothing so sneeze at. I mean, I'm sure folks are feeling it, particularly those who thought they were playing it "safe" with the old tried and true 60 (stocks)/40 (bonds) mix. That last one (using Blackrock's 60/40 ETF as our proxy) is down 10.5% on the year so far.

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Morning Note: So Now You Know

So, when you think about the big event of the week -- the Federal Reserve May Policy Meeting -- going on today and tomorrow, what you're thinking about is the institution's impact on financial conditions. Are their policies fostering loose and easy conditions (plenty of liquidity and low interest rates), or tight conditions (low, or less, liquidity and rising interest rates)?

Monday, May 2, 2022

Quote of the Day: Growth Down, Inflation Up

The fiscal response to Covid shattered all historic norms and established precedent, and, therefore, foments expectations of reactive relief measures (read support checks, etc.) whenever the populace experiences heightened pain.

Morning Note: Commodities Continue to Correct, But the Long-Term Setup Remains Extremely Bullish!

Global equity and commodity markets are starting off what will be a tense week (at least until Wednesday when the Fed wraps up its May policy meeting) on the back foot. China's PMI's (Purchasing Managers Indices) weak readings are exacerbating global demand fears.

Coincidentally, I, among other things, once again touched on China in our internal market log over the weekend. 

Here are a couple snippets: