Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Quote of the Day

Jack Schwager, in his instructive and comprehensive A Complete Guide to the Futures Market  makes the point that we've been stressing of late in client review meetings: That while our fundamental analysis says the overall setup remains bullish for equity markets, it's  only useful in terms of assessing the prospects for the intermediate and longer-term horizons. We should always expect frequent counter-trend moves and corrections even under the best of conditions. 

Friday, January 12, 2018

Inflation Update

In last night's post we featured December import and export prices and the Producer Price Index -- each missing expectations -- and reiterated our stance that it's simply a matter of time.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Despite the headline numbers, the market feels inflation coming...

We've been hinting herein that our view on inflation is that we're on the cusp. Not, mind you, remotely in the style of the late-70's/early-80s, but at a rate that jibes with an accelerating economy and an uber-tight labor market. 

This Week's Message: The Troubling Rumbling!

As we suggested yesterday, and in our year-end letter, the most troubling rumbling amid the presently bullish macro setup is the threat of U.S.-led protectionism. 

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

China's Dollars

Dow's down triple-digits as I type. Here's the headline:
"Dow falls 100 points amid concern China may stop buying U.S. debt"
Let me help you put that headline into perspective.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

The good news may be bad news, which, if it is, makes it good news!

Well, the good news is that analysts are absolutely giddy about the current earnings season! The bad news is that analysts are absolutely giddy about the current earnings season!

Monday, January 8, 2018

Things 'presently' look good, the world over...

The monthly Purchasing Managers Surveys are priceless when it comes to assessing global economic conditions. 

Here's why:

Saturday, January 6, 2018

PWA 2017 Year-End Client Letter

Part 1: What Makes Us Tick

2017 has been quite the year for the stock market! Predictions annihilated, records smashed, and headwinds bucked like they were never there. My, where to begin?

Friday, January 5, 2018

This Week's Message: We're in the minority on the dollar, again...

After just bombarding you with our lengthy year-end treatise, this week's message will be very short and sweet.

Here's part of an interoffice memo I sent this morning:

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Stat of the Day: We're hearing footsteps...

The results of December's Institute for Supply Management's 
manufacturing purchasing managers survey were released this morning. 

Given the macro backdrop we've been discussing herein, the above-consensus headline number -- and 14-year high for new orders -- should be no big surprise.

While this is of course very good news, one thing we're looking for in such releases is any whiff of inflation: Note the last line in paragraph 2:

Monday, January 1, 2018

Quote of the Day (Maybe the Year!)

So a young man says to me over the weekend "they say Apple is going down. What do you think?" I explain why I never listen to "they". I then offer up an alternative scenario and escape the conversation without making a recommendation. A minute later I overhear him complaining to my son Nick (we're between basketball games), "your Dad always answers my questions like an attorney!"