Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Morning Note: Beware your predictions...

While inflation (CPI) came in a bit hotter, month-on-month, than economists expected, based on the reaction (lack thereof) in rates (actually dropped a bit), the street feared worse. 

Monday, April 12, 2021

Morning Note: The Fed Strives to Weaken the Dollar, And for "Good" Reason

Things I suspect will heat up as we move into the week... Q1 earnings reports will of course garner much attention, however, CPI, retail sales, regional manufacturing surveys and fresh housing data will be keenly focused on as well. 

Sunday, April 11, 2021

Positioning Technical Updates (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Friday, April 9, 2021

Macro Update: Asset Bubbles Abound, However...

While our macro index's overall score didn't budge this week (remaining at +18.37), the number of positive inputs did rise to 45% of the total, negatives also rose, to 27%, neutral inputs declined to 28%.

Morning Note: "The Game is About Preservation of Capital"

With all due respect to any conspiracy theorists out there, it's been my all-too-often observation/opinion that conspiracy theories are, again, all-too-often, about outcomes that simply don't comport with the theorist's preconceived notions.

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Once Again, Privatizing Gains While Socializing Losses

Once again, in little more than a decade, the powers that be have facilitated the privatization of gains (subprime corporate debt buyers made great hay while the makin was good), and the socialization of losses (stuck the taxpayer with the garbage when the risk came home to roost). 

So, think of the wife as the taxpayer, think of the husband as the Fed, think of the bottles as all of the insolvent debt that the Fed effectively removed from the hedge fund and private equity firms' portfolios -- and placed onto the taxpayer's -- and think of the cream as all of the stimulus:

Morning Note: One Thing That Never Changes

Yesterday I pointed to the dangerous level of giddiness presently displayed among the investment advisor crowd. Well, this morning the AAII's weekly individual investor sentiment survey results were posted, and, well, investors are not heading my advice (I subtitled yesterday's post "Never Party With Investment Advisors").

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

This Week's Message: Levered Blow-Ups are Seldom One-Offs, Naked Swimmers -- And -- Never Party With Investment Advisors!

In our portfolio call this morning, Nick and I found ourselves discussing the recent plunge of ViacomCBS stock as a result of the imploding of a ridiculously leveraged (read greedy) hedge fund (Archegos), which ostensibly threatened the solvency of more than one of the global financial institutions that provided the leverage. Credit Suisse, for example, will bleed a few $billion, while, not to mention, its head of risk management lost her job over the debacle.

Morning Note: Risk/Reward Setups -- And -- When We Crowd Together

Like I keep saying, there are too many similarities between today and the early 2000s to sit back and accept the "it's different this time" mantra coming from Wall Street.

Now, indeed, perhaps it is (different this time), but even the present-day arguments in that regard are eerie echoes of the tech-inspired mantra of the late-90s.

Fiddling around with graphs this morning, something's jumping out at me...

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Quote of the Day: Two Sides of the Borrowing/Spending Coin

In Friday's video I mentioned how stimulus checks over the past year have coincided with spikes in auto sales.

Well, per economist Dave Rosenberg, there are two sides to that aggressive-stimulus/get-people-borrowing-and-spending coin:

Morning Note: A Lot of Positive Priced In

In last Friday's macro video I pointed to the huge spike in the purple line below:

Monday, April 5, 2021

Morning Note: Robin Hood feeling some pressure...

In Friday's video macro update I suggested that the negative correlation (of late) between stocks (tech in particular) and higher interest rates might -- in light of Friday's big jobs number -- be put to the test this week.

Saturday, April 3, 2021

Quote of the Day: The Problems With Easy Solutions

While discussing markets, economies and general setups with the board of an institutional client last week, I was presented the ever-pressing question asked of those of us who've managed a few market rodeos in our day, “roughly when do you expect the market to roll over?”

Friday, April 2, 2021

Macro Update (video)

Presenting this week's macro update via video... I touch on what has our index pointing up, on the details of this morning's jobs report, on our overall thesis and on how we're expressing it in our core allocation...

Big 8-point jump in our macro index this week!

Here are the details:


Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Thursday, April 1, 2021

Quote of the Day: "excesses are never permanent" -- and -- "resolve and discipline always win out"

From economist Dave Rosenberg's morning note:
"The one thing us old-timers can rely on is that history shows that (i) there are no new eras, (ii), anything that can’t last forever will not, (iii) excesses are never permanent and (iv) resolve and discipline always win out over the extreme emotions of fear and greed. Paste that to your wall." 

Yeah, I'm an old-timer...

Morning Note: Don't Be Fooled By All the Fun! Unless of course you love risk...

So, let's get yesterday's news out of the way...

Proposed: $2.25 trillion on infrastructure over 8 years, with another $1 trillion trailer to come.