While inflation (CPI) came in a bit hotter, month-on-month, than economists expected, based on the reaction (lack thereof) in rates (actually dropped a bit), the street feared worse.
Monday, April 12, 2021
Things I suspect will heat up as we move into the week... Q1 earnings reports will of course garner much attention, however, CPI, retail sales, regional manufacturing surveys and fresh housing data will be keenly focused on as well.
Sunday, April 11, 2021
Friday, April 9, 2021
With all due respect to any conspiracy theorists out there, it's been my all-too-often observation/opinion that conspiracy theories are, again, all-too-often, about outcomes that simply don't comport with the theorist's preconceived notions.
Thursday, April 8, 2021
Once again, in little more than a decade, the powers that be have facilitated the privatization of gains (subprime corporate debt buyers made great hay while the makin was good), and the socialization of losses (stuck the taxpayer with the garbage when the risk came home to roost).
So, think of the wife as the taxpayer, think of the husband as the Fed, think of the bottles as all of the insolvent debt that the Fed effectively removed from the hedge fund and private equity firms' portfolios -- and placed onto the taxpayer's -- and think of the cream as all of the stimulus:
Yesterday I pointed to the dangerous level of giddiness presently displayed among the investment advisor crowd. Well, this morning the AAII's weekly individual investor sentiment survey results were posted, and, well, investors are not heading my advice (I subtitled yesterday's post "Never Party With Investment Advisors").
Wednesday, April 7, 2021
This Week's Message: Levered Blow-Ups are Seldom One-Offs, Naked Swimmers -- And -- Never Party With Investment Advisors!
In our portfolio call this morning, Nick and I found ourselves discussing the recent plunge of ViacomCBS stock as a result of the imploding of a ridiculously leveraged (read greedy) hedge fund (Archegos), which ostensibly threatened the solvency of more than one of the global financial institutions that provided the leverage. Credit Suisse, for example, will bleed a few $billion, while, not to mention, its head of risk management lost her job over the debacle.
Like I keep saying, there are too many similarities between today and the early 2000s to sit back and accept the "it's different this time" mantra coming from Wall Street.
Now, indeed, perhaps it is (different this time), but even the present-day arguments in that regard are eerie echoes of the tech-inspired mantra of the late-90s.
Fiddling around with graphs this morning, something's jumping out at me...
Tuesday, April 6, 2021
In Friday's video I mentioned how stimulus checks over the past year have coincided with spikes in auto sales.
Well, per economist Dave Rosenberg, there are two sides to that aggressive-stimulus/get-people-borrowing-and-spending coin:
Monday, April 5, 2021
In Friday's video macro update I suggested that the negative correlation (of late) between stocks (tech in particular) and higher interest rates might -- in light of Friday's big jobs number -- be put to the test this week.
Saturday, April 3, 2021
While discussing markets, economies and general setups with the board of an institutional client last week, I was presented the ever-pressing question asked of those of us who've managed a few market rodeos in our day, “roughly when do you expect the market to roll over?”
Friday, April 2, 2021
Big 8-point jump in our macro index this week!
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Thursday, April 1, 2021
"The one thing us old-timers can rely on is that history shows that (i) there are no new eras, (ii), anything that can’t last forever will not, (iii) excesses are never permanent and (iv) resolve and discipline always win out over the extreme emotions of fear and greed. Paste that to your wall."
Yeah, I'm an old-timer...
So, let's get yesterday's news out of the way...
Proposed: $2.25 trillion on infrastructure over 8 years, with another $1 trillion trailer to come.