Friday, April 16, 2021

Morning Note: Please Pass the Cake

Another short and sweet note this morning; our weekly macro update to follow a bit later today.

Bloomberg's "Macro Man" Cameron Crise pretty much says all one needs to say about the healthiness of present-day market action ("FOMC" being the Fed):
"Who needs themes these days when you can just buy anything and win? That seems to be the mantra of the marketplace these days, as the triumvirate of stocks, bonds, and commodities look set to all register positive returns for the second week in the row.

That sort of behavior is hardly unprecedented, mind you; it’s happened in 13 of the past 52 weeks, so 25% of the time. It’s a testament to the belief in reflation without consequences, I suppose -- in other words, that abundant, cheap money will deliver growth without any side effects. Something tells me that if the FOMC were running a health food company, their offerings would comprise chocolate cake and pork scratchings rather than kale salad and acai smoothies."

Asian equities had a decent session overnight, with 14 of the 16 markets we track closing higher, but in mostly muted fashion...

Europe's looking strong so far this morning, with 15 of the 19 bourses we follow trading nicely in the green...

U.S. major averages are mixed to start the session: Dow up 130 points (0.39%), SP500 up 0.15%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.24%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.11%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.16%, Russell 2000 down 0.15%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 0.18%. VXN is down 0.51%.

Oil futures are down 0.71%, gold's up 0.86%, silver's up 0.67%, copper futures are down 0.64% and the ag complex is up 0.17%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.11%.

Led by solar, gold miners, materials, Eurozone equities and Verizon -- but dragged by MP (rare earth miners), oil services, uranium miners, energy and base metals -- our core mix is up 0.28% to start the day.

In his post-Fed-life book The Age of Turbulence, Alan Greenspan warned:

"Big deficits have an insidious effect. When the government overspends, it must borrow to balance its books. It borrows by selling treasury securities, which siphons away capital that could otherwise be invested in the private economy."

His successors, on the other hand:

"Well, it's a big package, but I think that we need to go big now, and that we can afford to go big,"

--Janet Yellen 

Have a great day!

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