Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Quote of the Day: Harmful Noise...

Was chatting with a friend today about the general uselessness of mainstream financial media. I got to thinking that Taleb was more to the point in his epic book The Black Swan: Not only is the noise useless, in an investment context, it can be quite harmful (emphasis mine):

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Quote of the Day: We're all human...

Every now and again a client will ask me to comment on a doom and gloom scenario some famous (because he/she showed up somewhere in the mainstream media) person -- whom they've never heard of -- put forth in an interview, or infomercial, they just exposed themselves to.

Friday, November 25, 2016

This Week's Message: Bonds' Painful Lesson...

Being that bonds have not been a feature of our clients' portfolios for quite some time, I've not been compelled in quite some time to make them a topic herein. But with the dramatic drubbing they've taken of late (chart), I thought I'd go there this week. Plus, if this keeps up -- which it'll have to for awhile -- we might, after a long hiatus, find ourselves actively pursuing bond market opportunities on behalf of our clients...

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Quotes of the Day: The Euro Zone setup looks good to me...

These two Bloomberg headlines from this afternoon speak to the positive setup I see for much of our non-U.S. exposure:

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Bonus Quote of the Day: The Market and New Presidents

Bespoke Investment Group took a look at how the past elections of new American presidents impacted stock market returns between election night and inauguration, and over the ensuing 4 years. As you can tell below, there's nothing to go on. Which is a very good thing, because making bets on single events, no matter how big/important they may seem, is akin to believing that a slight breeze can determine the direction of a herd of elephants. Which would be a good way to get yourself trampled:

Quote of the Day: The Definition of Good Investing

Gregory Morris, in Investing with the Trend, perfectly defines "good investing":

Monday, November 21, 2016

Market Commentary: Sentiment's Up! -- And -- Chasing Losers (video)

A very short week (in the office) for me, so here's your one video commentary for the week. I make a few points that I'd like all of you clients out there to take in...

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Marty

Click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen...

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Quote of the day: Crowds keep it simple, and extreme...

Gustave Le Bon, in his 1895 classic, The Crowd, spoke to why I pay close attention to the prevailing investor sentiment:

Friday, November 18, 2016

This Week's Message: The Economy's Looking Up

It's commonly said in my world that bear markets are things of recessions. And that, barring the occasional correction that dips below 20%, has been my experience. Therefore, along with the trends file that I share with you on occasion, I maintain what I call my "Macro Indicators" file, which I update every Wednesday. There's where I track what I believe to be much of the most relevant economic data (what I don't track in the MI file I catch in my monthly trends file) that allows me to maintain a feel for where we are in the economic cycle. With all the hoopla around the election and what may or may not be to come, this week I thought -- via my macro file -- I'd force our focus onto what's presently going on under the surface.

Now that I have you all excited about the rest of this message, my challenge is how to copy and paste all of the charts, etc., without you scrolling down and shouting "MARTY, YOU'VE GOT TO BE *!#%^G KIDDING ME!" at your computer screen.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Quote of the day: The Secrets of Investing

Ben Carlson offers the insights he gained from The Evidence-Based Investment Conference held in NYC this week. Here's a snippet:

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Quote of the day: Careful What You Ask For

Those of you who know me know that I am a passionate advocate for free trade. I often stress herein the importance of global capital flow.

Today's TV Segment (video)

This morning Joey and I discussed the surprise market reaction to the election results, and the prospects going forward.

Click here to view...

Friday, November 11, 2016

This Week's Message: Circus Trump

Make no mistake dear reader, this is not me being political, and it's certainly not me not intending to exploit the opportunities that lie ahead. In fact, the overall setup for stocks remains quite positive in my view. This is simply me pointing out the risks...

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Market Commentary: Election Night (video)

Quote of the day... The Business Cycle or the Politician?

From Bespoke Investment Group's end of day commentary:
Over the longer term, we’re big believers that the Presidency (or Congress) is much less important than the business cycle and other economic factors when considering US stock market returns.
I wholeheartedly agree!

Sunday, November 6, 2016

October Was, To Say the Least, Ugly! So what does that suggest for November?

Per below, October was a really rough month for investors across virtually all asset classes:     click to enlarge...

Friday, November 4, 2016

This Week's Message: What the "Smart Money" is Betting On... And... Investors' View of Their Post-Election Prospects

I've used a number of different illustrations over the years to explain why I place so much emphasis on sentiment when we're talking the near-term prospects for the stock market. More recently I've described how when the majority of market players fear losing, they're generally out of the market. When the circumstance(s) they fear either concludes or doesn't actually occur, they're left huddled on the fear side of the boat realizing that it didn't sink after all. Then they either have to fish for a whole new Titanic-esque story, or scurry to the other side (the fear of losing out side) of the boat. Moving from the fear of losing to the fear of losing out means buy stocks.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Quote of the Day: The Powerless (compared to government) Rich

Sure, rich folks, like all folks, are capable of doing bad (as well as good) things. However, their power to do bad things to citizens at large doesn't remotely compare to that of government (not to say that all things government are necessarily bad). 

Borrowing today's Quote of the Day from Don Boudreaux's Quotation of the Day

Market Commentary: The Bull/Bear Battle Ground (video)

Wednesday, November 2, 2016



Life as we know it will change forever if ________ wins next Tuesday! Yep, it's over if  _______ becomes President! This once great nation, if not the entire planet, will descend into ruin if ________'s policies are enacted! Yep, you better watch the World Series finale tonight, because if _______ wins the election, this'll be last one you ever get to enjoy. Hell, we'll be lucky if the NFL gets to finish its season. Easter will be cancelled, forget about next year's vacation, and Christmas, well, there's no way! Forget about telling your kids or your kids' kids to get a college education, there'll be no use! Besides, the money you've invested on their, not to mention your own, behalf will be zeroed out under a _______ presidency! Famine will spread like wildfire! Wildfire will spread like wildfire! Good Lord! We'll be doomed!!

Do All-Time Highs Mean New Lows are a Coming?

A trader friend of mine reached out to me in July asking what would be the best thing to short, given that the Dow and the S&P 500 finally eclipsed the all-time highs that they inched into back in May 2015. My friend's assumption was that the mere fact that new highs were reached virtually had to lead to something, well, messy. With I'm sure much more charting and narration than he needed, I illustrated why I wouldn't short this market.