Per today's chart, commodity cycles tend to be long-term affairs:
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Friday, February 26, 2021
Our proprietary macro index continued its upside breakout this week, adding 8.17 points to its overall score, which now sits at +14.29:
Massively oversold treasuries are rallying, yields tanking (whew!) mightily, as I type this morning. And, therefore, after their mini bloodbath, interest rate sensitive tech stocks are rallying nicely as well.
While that's enough to goose the major averages (Nasdaq and SP500 in particular), given its heavy representation therein, tech is pretty much all that's working this morning.
Thursday, February 25, 2021
Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Imagine, after being locked down now for nearly a year, the historic economic bounce we're going to see once -- when things really open up -- all of that pent-up consumer demand is unleashed!
Throw in a few trillion of fiscal, and monetary, support, and, my goodness, stocks have got to absolutely soar!
Tuesday, February 23, 2021
This morning I copied and pasted into our internal research thread a blurb that mentioned a just-placed $30 million 3-day bet on Tesla call options with a strike price of $700...
Here was Nick's response:
Monday, February 22, 2021
Hmm.... We know there are a couple $trillion worth of government gifts coming, including $1,400 direct to the person checks. And we know there's $3 trillion more coming relatively soon, in the form of infrastructure spending.
Now that's the sort of news that had markets screaming higher last year, in the face of a global pandemic, no less.
Friday, February 19, 2021
In technical analyst jargon, our macro index has (per the graph below) broken through resistance (up 6.12 points this week) and successfully tested that line (now support) over the past three weeks, in continuation of the uptrend off of its June 2020 low.
I.e., the macro backdrop looks encouraging, and, purely technically speaking, it may indeed have legs (although failed breakouts are common, regardless of the asset/index being analyzed):
Deere knocked earnings out of the park (we like industrials right here!) and global manufacturing PMIs showed encouraging improvement overnight. "Stimulus" by the boatload is on its way and the new treasury secretary keeps saying that we simply can't go too big on government spending going forward, "now's the time!"
Thursday, February 18, 2021
Man, the irony, for the moment, is thick...
Aside from the disappointing jobless claims number this morning, the outlook for the economy is borderline giddy -- yesterday's retail sales number (yes, those $600 stimulus checks got spent), and the projected GDP bounce to come (off of a ghastly year-ago low of course), has Wall Street salivating. Yet, stocks are looking more and more fragile as the days wear on... Hmm...
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Just a quick note this morning; our main weekly message coming your way later today...
So, way stronger than expected retail sales reported for January, and, well, stocks are taking a hit this morning... Yep, stocks are trading these days on the prospects for stimulus, and good news of course doesn't stimulate the need for stimulus... I've seen this before, by the way...
Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Sunday, February 14, 2021
Just a little thinking out loud... well, on my keyboard... this morning...
Now, don't get me wrong, this market has momentum, more stimulus is coming, the service sector will bounce back, the Fed will suppress the yield curve if/when interest rates get out of hand, and so on... Therefore, trying to time the end of this mania is a fool's errand...
Friday, February 12, 2021
Thursday, February 11, 2021
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
Tuesday, February 9, 2021
Clearly, judging by the latest price action, traders/investors anticipate great things from the great amount of continued government stimulus to come.... Plus, and this is a big plus, it's going to be so great that they see it ultimately sparking a not-small amount of inflation in the process.
Saturday, February 6, 2021
Friday, February 5, 2021
Finally, after 15 months without a positive overall score, our proprietary macro index peeked its nose above the zero line this week, albeit barely, coming in at +2.04:
Thursday, February 4, 2021
Sitting here, sifting through the plethora of data, etc. I've accumulated over the past week for the purpose of penning this particular message, I find myself needing to reiterate that (as long-time clients and readers know) I'm anything but a gloomy Gus by nature. It's all about how the pieces (from economic data, to Fed policy [and practice], to valuation, to the fundamental and technical setups across major asset classes, to sentiment, and so on) all presently fit together.
Wednesday, February 3, 2021
Tuesday, February 2, 2021
Monday, February 1, 2021
Sliver is all the rage this morning, as the retail trader -- specifically the one who chats on Reddit and trades, or used to trade, on Robin Hood -- is, either through his/her own perceived genius or, ironically, through the discrete egging on by elements he/she is otherwise committed to destroying, is attempting to squeeze the price of the metal (and the funds that track it) higher, and themselves richer in the process.