Monday, February 22, 2021

Morning Note: So What's Up With Stocks?

Hmm.... We know there are a couple $trillion worth of government gifts coming, including $1,400 direct to the person checks. And we know there's $3 trillion more coming relatively soon, in the form of infrastructure spending. 

Now that's the sort of news that had markets screaming higher last year, in the face of a global pandemic, no less.

So what's up with stocks?

S&P 500 Feb 8 to this morning:

Well, as we've been warning ad nauseum, this...

10-year treasury yield:

Not that the signing of said stimulus bills won't send stocks soaring once again -- just sayin... among other things, rising interest rates pose a serious headwind.

Stay tuned...

The Asian session was ugly overnight, with 12 of the 16 markets we track closing notably lower.

Europe's is only better in terms of the degree of declines this morning, with 16 of the 19 bourses we follow trading lower as I type; roughly a third I'd say notably.

U.S major averages (save for SP500 EW) are also in the red (tech especially) to start the day: Dow down 62 points (0.20%), SP500 down 0.64%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.18%, Nasdaq down 1.63%, Russell 2000 down 0.14%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 7.35%. VXN (Nasdaq 100 i.v.) is up 8.72%.

Oil futures are up 3.09%, gold's up 1.43%, silver's up 2.20%, copper futures are up 1.41% and the ag complex is up 0.72%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is down 0.26%.

Led by oil services, energy, miners, silver and gold, but dragged by the likes of emerging market equities, tech, utilities and healthcare, our core mix is up 0.07% to start the day.

Please pardon my cynicism:
"It is the nature of the politician—intentions notwithstanding—to attempt to fix the things that bring pain to his constituents. Like the overprotective parents who can’t bear to witness their child suffering the normal pains of life, who carefully arrange the child’s experiences, who provide for every whim, who fill life’s potholes before the little angel can lose a step, and who ultimately deliver an emotionally anemic adult void of any real-life problem-solving skills. One who sees government (as he did Mommy and Daddy) as the answer to all the world’s challenges. This surely describes the incubation of many of today’s politicians."

--Yours truly 

Have a nice day!

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