Friday, June 14, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

Broadcom’s forecast downgrade, due of course to trade war concerns, has tech selling off a bit this morning. China’s very weak industrial data from last night has the market jittery as well. Not helping matters, ironically, is decent U.S. industrial production and retail sales (both data points released this morning). The latter challenges the notion that the Fed needs to step in and cut interest rates right here.

Thursday, June 13, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

The major equity averages are rallying at the open this morning: The S&P future contract, while already in the green, popped higher on the higher than expected weekly jobless claims number; i.e., bad news remains good news for now, as it bolsters the case for Fed easing going forward.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Must Watch 2-Minute Video Clip

In a Bloomberg interview this morning, hedge fund legend (trust me, this guy more than deserves the label) Paul Tudor Jones pretty much echoes what we've been preaching herein for months (although we're more certain on the recession risk):

Here's a clip:

This Morning's Log Entry

Last week’s rally carried through Monday and into the morning on Tuesday; turning around intraday and closing lower. This morning the Dow and S&P are floating around break even, while the Nasdaq is off .22%.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Video Commentary on the Latest Action

In today's video commentary I dig, frankly and directly, into current market and economic conditions.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Monday, June 10, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

The no-tariff news on Mexican goods has the market continuing last week’s rally this morning.

I have to admit that I’m a bit surprised that we’re looking at these levels at this juncture. The underpinnings of the latest rally are anything but fundamentally positive.

Saturday, June 8, 2019

This Week's Message: All We Can Be Certain Of, For the Time Being

Question: Which of the following two hypothetical headlines would make you feel better about the present state of the U.S. stock market?

Friday, June 7, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry: The Problem With "Playing With The Bank's Money" Given Present Conditions

This morning’s disappointing jobs report confirmed two things that I already knew, tariffs are doing a real number on the economy and we’ve entered a bad-news-is-good-news (bad news means the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate) period for stocks; the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are all positive in the futures session as I type.

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Brief Commentary on the Latest Action (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

This Morning's Log Entry

As I type equity futures are moving nicely into the green, after trading lower for most of the evening. From Europe, Trump stated that he could add tariffs to an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods when the time is right, but added that China, and Mexico, really want to make a deal. The hint of deals, as opposed to the threat of more tariffs, is what traders keyed on this morning. 

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

Yesterday’s huge rally speaks to traders’ faith that the Fed can cure all economic ills. Problem is, it can’t. But my how it can spark a rally with the merest hint of a rate cut; particularly when the economy is slowing, but not yet in recession mode; which is my current assessment.

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

End of Day Wrap Up (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Brief Commentary on the Latest Action (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Monday, June 3, 2019

Wall Street Waking Up

In yesterday's log entry (posted herein this morning), I suggested that Wall Street is finally coming around to our way of thinking.

Just got a little more evidence of that from this evening's Asia edition of Bloomberg's Markets Live Blog:

Latest Log Entry

6/2/19 Sunday 

This week’s PWA Index came in at a low expansion reading of 10.59. While consumer data is holding up okay, industrial data is waning, and while the financial stress index on balance is okay (+40), spreads are moving in the wrong direction.

U.S. Manufacturers Feeling the Pain of Protectionism

While not quite as threatening as this morning's manufacturing PMI release, ISM's manufacturing survey for May also came in below expectations.

My highlights below of the report's featured responses sum up the long of the short of it:

No Surprises Yet In This Morning's Data

This morning's release of May's manufacturing purchasing managers survey (performed by Markit) should come as no surprise. The 50.5 reading (below 50 denotes recessionary conditions) screams to the impact tariffs are beginning to have on the U.S. economy.

Quote of the Day

We'll be taking a deeper dive into general conditions here on the blog this week, in the meantime macro strategist Cameron Crise pretty much says the short-term like it is: