Thursday, December 13, 2018

Quick Note on Present Conditions: A Market in Limbo

As I type the Dow and the S&P 500 are barely clinging to gains this morning, while the Nasdaq Comp is down .27%.

As we've stated multiple times herein over the past few months, current  macro conditions do not allow us (so to speak) to move to a markedly defensive posture within client portfolios -- despite the presently heightened level of downside volatility. In other words, general conditions suggest that stock price action presently deviates from fundamental reality.

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Brief Note On This Morning's Action

As I type, Dow futures are, once again, pointing to a 300+ point jump at the open. While the Charlie Brown risk is still huge, there is -- at this very early point in the trading day -- a hint that the headline support may be a bit better in the near-term.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Bonus, And Untimely, Quote of the Day

The market is sending a clear signal (as this morning's 470 point Dow decline [+370 to -100] attests) that the time for public browbeating is over, and that serious negotiations that lead to a lasting solution need to begin.

Quote of the Day: EXACTLY!

Institutional investor hall of famer Richard Bernstein, in a CNBC  interview this morning, perfectly echoes what we've been preaching here on the blog:

Quick Note On This Morning's Action: Legit or Lucy?

Dow's up 300+ as I type on news that China is considering lowering its tariff on U.S. made automobiles from 40% to 15%.

Monday, December 10, 2018

Video Commentary: A Brief Look At Today's Action

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Data of the Day

So here's the thing about this idea that we should coerce U.S. and foreign companies to "bring those jobs to America". America doesn't need them, literally! We currently have 1 million more job openings than we have people seeking work to fill them. 

Quote of the Day

There's clearly concern factored into Japan's latest GDP number, yet there's optimism in the expectations captured by the surveys. Bespoke's assessment below speaks directly to my view of the potential of, and the risks to, the global economy going forward:  emphasis mine...

Quick Note on This Morning's Action

Dow's down nearly 500 points as I type. The session this morning has been all over the place. At one point the Dow was up high double digits, then meandered its way lower, accelerating the minute Britain's Teresa May began addressing parliament on her latest Brexit maneuvers.

Sunday, December 9, 2018

A Deeper Dive Into Current Conditions and the Longer-term Setup (video)

If you haven't already, be sure to read this week's message posted yesterday. This morning's video takes you on a deeper dive into current conditions and the general long-term setup:

Saturday, December 8, 2018

This Week's Message: Crazy Market

I'm thinking the below, from my response this morning (edited for your reading pleasure) to a client's email with the subject line "Crazy Market", could be instructive (particularly the last two paragraphs) to those of you who may be feeling (literally) the latest volatility:

Friday, December 7, 2018

Video Commentary: A Look At Today's Action

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

A Chart To Go With Our Quote of the Day

This goes with our earlier Quote of the Day:

Best Headline in Months

Best, most promising, newsflash I've seen in months:
"President Donald Trump has been consulting with his advisors to see if his trade policies are responsible for the volatility that has hammered markets in recent weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal."
I'm certain that, hopefully among others, Mnuchin and Kudlow are confirming the President's fears. Navarro, on the other hand, has made a career out of being clueless on trade and the markets. Hopefully the President will take to heart the former two's guidance... 

Quote of the Day: It's All About Noise and Reaction

I noticed (awhile after the fact) in this morning action precisely what Bloomberg's Arie Shapira noticed:

What's Inspiring This Morning's Action? And Charts of the Day: Technical Green Shoots

Yesterday, Fed Chairman Powell sounded an optimistic tone on the economy -- on the labor market in particular. Today's jobs and hourly wage numbers came in shy of expectations, which some would say inspired the early 140+ point rise in the Dow. If that's the case, traders quickly woke up to the fact that while the numbers missed expectations, they were anything but weak, and, therefore, they offered virtually no incentive for the Fed to not hike a quarter point week after next. 

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Video Commentary: A Brief Look At Today's Action

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Quote of the Day: The Sky Is Not Falling

Bloomberg Markets reporter Anchalee Worrachate makes some sense:

Chart of the Day (What We Expected)

Yes, a 1,500 Dow point decline in two trading days is dramatic. But if you've been with me here are on the blog, you'll recall that roughly 3 weeks ago I suggested that at least a test of the October low was highly likely. I pointed again to that likelihood last evening.

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Video Commentary

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Bonus Quotes of the Day

The President really needs to walk this one from this morning back:

On This Morning's Selloff (makes perfect sense)

The Dow's down 700 points as I type. If you'll recall there was a day last week when the Dow closed up 600 points. Such is the market during volatile periods.

Quote of the Day

The following from Econoday's commentary on yesterday's release of the November Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (along with other data points) speaks to why we presently remain relatively growthy in our sector weightings (green highlights), and yet to the concerns we've been expressing herein and why we may find ourselves shifting to a somewhat more defensive posture in the months to come (yellow highlights):

Monday, December 3, 2018

Quick Thought On The Weekend's Big News

The Trump/Xi meeting happened over the weekend, and they did call a truce. What I can confirm from the commentary (there’s been notable differences between China’s and U.S.’s official responses, and Trump’s comments thus far conflict with both) is that there’ll be a 90-day delay in tariffs on new items, and no increase in existing tariffs, pending further negotiations.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

This Week's Message: Wild Week Coming

The coming week is bound to be a wild one for the markets: Fed Chair Powell reports to Congress on Wednesday and we get the November jobs number on Friday. And while either, or both, could indeed shake up the market, both, in terms of potential impact, utterly pale in comparison to the Trump/Xi meeting happening today. 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Underneath Today's Rally

Today's monster rally was the biggest in 8 months. Here's my take:

Virtually without exception you'll find the media's explanation to be that today's move was entirely about Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating that rates are sitting "just below" what the Fed presently deems neutral. That would be the rate consistent with present economic conditions; i.e., a fed funds rate that would stick for awhile (no further hikes in the near-term offing).

Monday, November 26, 2018

Quote of the Day: "Tariffs Are Bad"

Notes from the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey released this morning speak volumes about why we said at the beginning of the year (and have stressed repeatedly since) that protectionism is the looming threat that could put our bullish thesis to the test:

Saturday, November 24, 2018

This Week's Message: Gloom is Good

In last Monday's post I wrote:
"Sometimes immediate conditions are such that the would-be buyers decide to sit on the sidelines for days, weeks, even months, waiting for things to shake out a bit -- and waiting for the average investor to panic."
Yes, a classic characteristic of a stock market bottom is that ultimate capitulation when the last holdout seller -- typically the individual investor -- succumbs to the pain, and the recency bias, and turns his/her shares over to bargain hunters who suffer not the affliction of believing that what's occurring today will occur forever.

Friday, November 23, 2018

Chart, and Message, Of the Day

As we anticipated, and have expressed herein, the Dow is highly likely to, at a minimum, test its recent intraday support level. Today it came within a hair:

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Well, We Told You So!

We're generally not ones to say "we told you so", but today's worse than expected durable goods orders report is consistent with our somewhat party-pooping post back on July 27th, when that whopping 4.1% second quarter GDP number was announced.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Video Commentary: The Correction For What It Is -- For Now

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Bonus Quote of the Day

While White House Econ Adviser Larry Kudlow tried his best this morning to talk up the market by talking up the U.S. economy, he clearly didn't give traders what they wanted.

Quote of the Day

Today's quote below (from Bespoke's morning message) nicely follows yesterday's quick thought:

Quick Market Update, and Chart of the Day

If you've been with us consistently here on the blog, this morning's selloff should come as no big surprise. In last week's video I suggested that the near-term technical setup suggested that a test, and possible breach, of the recent low was very much in the cards.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Charts of the Day: Consumers Are Keeping Current

As we stress herein ad nauseam, in our view the key to long-term investment success is to allocate in accordance with general conditions. Therefore, the majority of our research time is spent assessing the present state of macro affairs.

Being that consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of the U.S. economy, we are keenly interested in the fiscal health of the American spender.

Quick Thought

I recall earlier this year, during a period when virtually every dip in stocks was getting quickly bought, pushing the major indexes past prior highs, a friend commented to me how he comforts his wife when she's nervous about a big down day: He'd say "Honey, I'll betchya it'll snap right back up tomorrow", and he told me he was virtually always right.

Quick Note On This Morning's Action

Here's the last paragraph to this week's message; posted Saturday:

Saturday, November 17, 2018

This Week's Message: Seeing Some Stress, Seeing Some Strength, Seeing More Near-Term Uncertainty

We absolutely have our concerns over the present trajectory of the global economy. However, as our direct experience, as well as our study of economic/market history, instructs, long-term trends are forever interrupted by counter-trend fluctuations. 

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Market Commentary (video included)

So when will the market calm down? Is this a correction or the beginning of a bear market? If the economy's so good, why is the market so bad lately?

Three very good questions that we can address by answering a single, simpler, yet deeper, question:

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Quick note on today's action...

Headline reads: 
"Dow turns negative, giving up 200-point gain, as Apple rolls over"

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Bonus Quote of the Day: Consequential (on trade) Conflict in Washington

Last post for today:

Per the below, there's serious (and consequential) conflict on trade going on in Washington.

Quote of the Day

Yes, that elephant in the room we talked about in our weekly message  is absolutely the issue:  emphasis mine...

Be Careful What You Ask For!

If you're at all inspired by the politically-popular (in some circles) notion that China's economic pain (say, when -- due to U.S. tariffs -- producers en masse move their manufacturing facilities elsewhere), somehow equates to U.S. industry's gain, consider the following:

Monday, November 12, 2018

Quick Note on Present Conditions

Personal circumstances do not allow me to flood your inbox as I typically do during volatile periods, however I was able to perform our weekly macro analysis over the weekend.

Quote of the Day: 'Maybe' A Silver Lining

Stock index futures were in good shape this morning (Dow future up triple digits) until this showed up in the Wall Street Journal (Dow future down triple digits):

Saturday, November 10, 2018

This Week's Message: A strong finish is in the historical cards, but there's this issue...

History favors the odds of a strong 6 weeks to come, particularly in that this is an election year. 2018, however, has an issue coming to a head that can -- good or bad -- make its year-end one to remember...



Save for communications, and despite Friday's ugly session, every major sector made up some technical ground last week, which makes sense given the unsurprising mid-term election results and the -- until yesterday -- somewhat friendlier rhetoric around foreign trade.

If you followed, and, worse yet, believed the financial headlines over the course of Friday's trading session you might've gone from feeling concern over a heating economy (the producer price index [reported 5:30 a.m. pt] was way hotter than economists expected) and, therefore, Fed rate hikes galore, to, by the afternoon, all out angst over a weakening global economy, as that then became the reason du jour.

Frankly, in my view, both narratives essentially focus on the cart, while ignoring the elephant-sized horse pulling it along. 

While I'm certainly not the only observer who sees the present core issue as being the U.S./China trade dispute, for whatever reason it pretty much remains, again, the elephant in the room that folks who should know better seem content to tiptoe around. And as my metaphors suggest, if indeed inflation and global growth are legitimate worries (they indeed are), well, you might imagine how a protracted trade war can only make matters worse. Much worse!

As for Friday morning’s rhetoric, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro made the rounds, fielding questions on the latest U.S./China trade developments. Two headlines summed up his message:
"White House Trade Adviser Navarro Says China Deal Will Be On Trump's Terms, Not Wall Street's"
And:
"Peter Navarro Blasts China and Wall Street Globalists"
Of course his statements exacerbated an already weak trading session.

I think Peter's a bit peeved at a market that he clearly does not understand. Here's me quoting him, and exposing his naiveté, in my March 20th blog post:
“I don’t think there’s anybody on Wall Street that will oppose cracking down on China’s theft of our intellectual property.”
Wanna bet, Peter?
Honestly, I agree with the sentiment of his March statement; let's crack down on intellectual property theft, but let's not do it by implementing an asinine (tariff) scheme that history has proven over and over again hurts the U.S. economy at every conceivable rung!

As for Friday's outbursts, well, okay, the China deal will be on the President's, not Wall Street's, terms, but make no mistake my dear friends, Wall Street will judge it based on what it portends for the economy. And as we've learned over the years, nothing can lay waste to a political career like a weak economy and a bear market in stocks.

So I'll taunt once again (can't help it); wanna bet, Peter?

And as for the political football term "globalist", which by some miracle gains negative traction in this great melting pot of the world, well, when you consider that so many iconic U.S. companies generate better than half of their revenue from outside our borders -- i.e., from where the remaining 96% of our human family lives -- it's probably not a term/concept we should be at all railing against.

Here's a video we shot back in July of 2016 that we'd like all of our clients to watch (again) -- part one (3 minutes) in particular. Virtually all of the return, valuation, etc., comparisons that I illustrated in part 2 are as, if not more, pertinent today than they were 2+ years ago. 

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Checking One Headwind Off Our List

Assuming sufficient races are decided, by this time tomorrow we will have crossed one market headwind off of our list. Judging by yesterday's and today's action, market players in the aggregate are comfortable with a Democrat-led House and a Republican Senate. As you know, polls strongly favor that outcome.

Sunday, November 4, 2018

This Week's Message: Last Week's Medley and the Short-term Character of the Stock Market

I knew I was active herein last week, but (just counted), geeze!, 15 posts... yeah, that's a bit much. But, you know, it was a crazy week and it's tough to stay quiet when I know that the media is killing itself to grab the attention of our clients with all manner of noise and, often, hyperbole.

Friday, November 2, 2018

Unfortunate -- for really short-term bulls -- Headline of the Day

This one (just released), plus the one we featured earlier this morning, was good for a 530-point plunge in the Dow (from last night's futures trading to this moment):

Bonus Quote of the Day: The Expansion Has Legs

As clients and regular readers know, our assessment of conditions instructs that -- barring a protracted trade war -- the present economic expansion has legs.

The Economist agrees:    emphasis mine...

Good job: America’s labour market

Jobs are plentiful, as today’s figures on non-farm payrolls from the Bureau of Labour Statistics should confirm. ADP, a company that publishes its own estimates a couple of days before the BLS posts official numbers, tends to track the official numbers reasonably well. On October 31st it estimated an increase of 227,000 jobs, though some of that strength may be because last year’s employment was depressed by hurricanes. The trillion-dollar question is how long these good times can last. The ratio of prime-age employment to population was 79.3% in September, still a full percentage point below the level seen in 2009. That suggests there is still scope for a hotter economy to draw more people into the workforce. And although it looks likely that average hourly earnings growth will top 3% for the first time since 2009, that is not strong enough to think that this recovery is anywhere near its last gasps.

Quote of the Day: Apple's Other Announcement

Per my earlier post, Apple's feeling some pain this morning due to its decision to no longer report iPhone unit sales in its quarterly numbers. Thing is, per the snip below, there were two changes to the company's plans for reporting the internals going forward: Along with the notably negative iPhone decision, the company will also be disclosing the costs borne within its ever-growing services division. 

Not So Hugely Positive News, But, Actually...

Just crossing the wire:

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Should We Worry About Apple?

I purposely jumped onto the Apple earnings call a half hour late this afternoon so as to miss Tim Cook and company tell the world how phenomenal last quarter's numbers were. Not that they weren't wonderful, in fact they were, it's just that that's not where I find value in listening in on earnings conference calls. What I am interested in is the Q&A. That's where, through their demands for explanation and clarity, the blokes who get paid the big bucks to know what's what with a company express their concerns.

More Hugely Positive News

Futures were looking ugly this evening after Apple posted stellar numbers, but a conservative outlook, and a heads up that they won't be reporting iPhone unit sales numbers going forward (I have thoughts on that that I may follow up with in another post). But then the following hit the wires: 

Hugely Positive Headline

While the cynic would say that the below is simply an attempt to engineer a pre-midterm election market bounce (Dow was up 20 before the headline, up 203 as I type), it absolutely does speak to how the equity market is influencing the discussion. 

Manufacturers Still See Expansion, But (and that's a hugely concerning "but"!)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) monthly surveys are hugely telling about the state of the economy; they are important constituents in our PWA Macro Index. Readings over 50 denote economic expansion.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

The Fed's On The Right Track

As you may know, we believe that the Fed -- while causing consternation among politicians and some players in the market -- is on the right track. This morning's release of the Employment Cost Index (ECI) confirms our view.

Thoughts On Foreign Equities

I'm thinking my reply to an emailed question on Monday regarding foreign exposure would be instructive.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

About Today's Rally

Two things about today's rally in stocks:

Hold Your Horses Folks

Stocks are staging a bit of a comeback this morning that might (big "might") actually stick for a day or two.

Regular readers know that I remain bullish longer-term, but notably skeptical shorter-term on the path for equities. That said, in the very short-term it wouldn't surprise me to see the market sustain a brief rally.

Monday, October 29, 2018

When will it end, and is this a good time to buy?

My reply to an emailed question this morning states our current view in a nutshell. 

My friend inquired as to when I thought this downdraft would end, and if this is a good time to buy.

Here's my reply:

All you need to know about his morning's selloff

The following CNBC headline is all you need to know about this morning's selloff. 

The market tanked instantly (giving up a 280-point Dow rally) upon this hitting the wires:

Quote of the Day and This Week's Message

Bloomberg Market's Kyoungwha Kim's view of present market and economic conditions is right in line with our present assessment. 

Friday, October 26, 2018

Thursday, October 25, 2018

The Character of Today's Bounce (video)

What volume said about today's action, and some commentary on underlying conditions.

The "Best" Move

Had a nice email conversation with a dear old friend yesterday. One of the questions he asked me was if, in light of the huge hit to recent paper profits, I saw any point in exiting the market with what recent (let's assume he means that which was accumulated in the latter half of last year) profit is left, "even for yourself".

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

So Now What?

Here's from our September 29 blog post:
"The next few weeks (leading into mid-term elections), are, at best, likely to see a notable pickup in volatility. At worst, a pullback in the mid-single to low-double-digit % range."

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Market Commentary: This is What Needs to Happen (video)

This morning selloff is of course no surprise, and, thus, no worry to regular readers/viewers. But, just in case, here's a brief reminder:

Monday, October 22, 2018

Another Note on Financials

Here's Bloomberg Markets this morning on the financial sector, with my comments italicized in red added:

Way Too Soon To Buy China's Bounce!

Chinese stocks just turned in their best evening in years! And while there was globally good news to be found in So. Korea's October-so-far export numbers, China's rally was all about positive/calming jawboning by the powers that be. Unfortunately, history shows us that big bounces are most common during decidedly down markets, and, yep, they're generally sparked by the promises of panicky politicians.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Quote of the Day: This Is What We're Talking About!

We recently (multiple times) cited the risk to forward earnings outlooks due to U.S./China trade relations as being a huge near-term headwind.

The following is what we're talking about: 
 emphasis mine...

Headline of the Day

This is the kind of headline that'll likely lead to some upside volatility:

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Chart of the Day: Expect a Test

Yeah, a test of the recent low (normal btw) -- at a minimum -- is highly likely. At least that's what the graph I marked up last evening points to.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Note On the Financial Sector

My reply to an inquiry last evening regarding the somewhat surprising lackluster of financials this year, and on the impact of rising interest rates:

Bonus Quote of the Day: Irrefutable Wisdom

Here's the irrefutable wisdom of a well-economically-tutored acquaintance of mine:

Quote of the Day: THE Headwind

Per last night's video commentary, there's reason to doubt the "good news" of yesterday's bounce. This morning was already looking a bit ugly, but on the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross headline regarding trade negotiations with China below, things got notably uglier.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Did Today Offer Up The All Clear Signal? (video)

So was today's strong rally the all clear signal? Well, it may very well have been; it was certainly impressive, as my comments in the video regarding breadth suggest. But when we consider the existing headwinds and the inconclusiveness (too soon to tell) of our volume study, I dunno...

Quote of the Day: Again, Be Careful What You Ask For!

We've stated a number of times herein that the somehow popular in some circles notion that the U.S. is "winning" when the world's second largest economy appears to be "losing" is, to put it mildly, grossly mistaken.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Quote of the Day: What it Takes

Yep, pull backs and corrections are never fun, particularly if you're constantly monitoring your portfolio. Thing is, they're part and parcel to the business of investing -- there's simply no escaping them. If you find yourself stressed every time the market takes a multi-point dip, you might want to sit yourself down and come to terms with reality. Do you want to spend the rest of your life emotionally at the mercy of the market? If you determine that there'll be no peace for you while the market's in apparent turmoil, then you must do yourself a favor and either get out of the market altogether, or sell down to a point that you can emotionally manage. 

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Analysts Not Liking the Earnings Prospects for Financials and Materials, and That's a Good Thing!

Financials and materials are currently two of our top three sector weightings. As it turns out, Wall Street analysts are, on balance, presently not with us on those two picks. And, guess what, that's a good thing.

This Week's Message: Should We React?

Statistics such as the ones below provided by Bespoke Investment Group speak to why long-term investor-types tell you to never to sell into the kind of plunge stocks experienced last week.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Quote of the Day: A Billion Bucks and Tens of Thousand of Jobs (just one company)

While not all clients and regular readers totally agree with me on the tariff topic, they do know exactly where I stand. Which is with Ford's Jim Hackett and United Technology's Gregory Harris:

Friday, October 12, 2018

Inflation Expectations Rising Among Businesses

Businesses (and they should know) see inflation rising going forward. Which supports the Fed's current stance, and, all else equal, bodes poorly for bonds and utilities, and well for financials (read higher interest rates) going forward:

Don't Call Your Friends Over Just Yet

As I type the Dow's up 300+ points, Nasdaq's up 2%, S&P 500's up 1.3%; very nice rally! Question is, should you believe it?

Thursday, October 11, 2018

What's 'Actually' Going On, minute by minute (video)

Watch this video if you're thinking too much about the market this week.

Looking at the volatility, and knowing how traders think, I planned to do a quick video for you this morning, but then I remembered I did one with the same message earlier in the year, just as, we know now, the market was bottoming after a 10+% dip.

Correcting the Narrative

You're hearing in the media -- not just from the President, but from no small number of market actors as well -- that the Fed essentially gets the blame for the latest turmoil in the markets. This morning's bounce in the pre-market on less than expected inflation news may embolden that narrative. While, in fact, it debunks it. 

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Market Commentary: Underneath Today's Selloff (video)

You may find my comments on rotation (in the back half of the video) particularly interesting.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Touching Base

To help you keep the latest in perspective, recall the note I sent to you last week, when the present decline was just getting underway:    emphasis mine this morning...

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Outlooks Challenged (right out of the gate)

In this week's message we said the following about a potential headwind developing from forward outlooks this earnings season: 

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Ceding Influence to China

While I know I am somehow at odds with a few of my friends, colleagues and clients on the U.S.'s present positioning among its global partners, I suspect we can all agree (that is, if we are "all" paying attention) that while the U.S. pulls in, China is reaching out, big time.

Saturday, October 6, 2018

This Week's Message: Rough Road Ahead, Amid Still Bullish General Conditions

The ugly short-term setup exhibited in our last analysis played out as odds indicated, as equities tumbled to close the week.

This week's analysis, while nuanced as discussed below, shows near-term conditions only getting worse.

Here's last week's chart character and volume snapshot (right 2 columns):   click any insert below to enlarge...



Here's this week's:


Unlike the previous week, however, overall ETF flows to U.S. equities didn't confirm the ugly volume trends depicted in this week's charts, as U.S. ETFs, in the aggregate, saw net inflow.

Although, zeroing in sector by sector, last week's fund flows indeed confirm most of what the present charts indicate (right column is weekly flow):

On a positive note, per the above, retail and financial stocks, while experiencing net outflows on the week, saw strong reversals (one-day net inflows) on Friday (center column).

Bucking the weekly negative trend were communication services and industrials:

Long-dated treasuries saw investors screaming toward the exits:

I'm near-term bearish, intermediate-term neutral, long-term bullish on tech:

As I've been reporting the past several weeks, the internals for tech have been growing more and more suspect. Plus, my intermediate-term macro thesis does not allow for tech to continue the strong leadership it exhibited last year, and so far in 2018; with or without a protracted trade war. Per last week's action, it looks as though the "smart" money is beginning to agree. I.e., last week's drubbing of the tech sector (tech down 2.2%, vs financials, industrials and materials; up 1.6%, 0.68% and down 0.5% respectively) made perfect sense to me.

Non-US remains a mess, as, clearly, global growth has slowed and the world stresses over the threatened, and now occurring, disruption of long-held trade arrangements and strongly-rooted global supply chains.

While headline data suggest that the U.S. economy has remained immune to tariff effects thus far, our deeper analysis suggests otherwise, per my macro notes following the excerpts below.

I sympathize with the following published yesterday by Bloomberg:     emphasis mine...
Global manufacturing is growing at the weakest pace in almost two years and exports shrank last month for the first time since 2016. “The U.S. may be booming but the global economy is starting to slow,” said Janet Henry, chief economist at HSBC Holdings in  London.
The trade war is raising the biggest red flag. In the past few weeks alone Panasonic Corp., Ford Motor Co. and BP Plc have all highlighted the dangers of the escalating tensions, and those worries are starting to filter through into the broader economy.
Emerging market stresses from Argentina to Turkey, political uncertainty in the U.K. and Italy, and rising oil prices are among the other threats. While there’s no sense of growth coming to a halt, the crystallization of risks means the synchronized expansion of last year is a fading memory.
HSBC this week lopped its forecasts for 2019 world growth, mainly prompted by a downgrade for emerging nations struggling with the rising dollar. 
“About 50 percent of the value added that’s in Chinese exports to the U.S. comes from the rest of Asia,” said Fabiana Fedeli, global head of fundamental equities at Robeco. “Clearly other countries will also be impacted if the trade war continued to escalate.”
The confluence of factors may be enough for the IMF to trim the forecasts it’s maintained so far this year for the world economy to expand 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019. The fund will update its World Economic Outlook from Bali on Oct. 9. It hasn’t revised projections down for a year ahead since October 2016.
.... even the U.S. may not be immune. Recent data showed the trade skirmish shaping up as a clear drag on growth last quarter, prompting economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Amherst Pierpont Securities to pare their estimates for expansion.
Macro Readings:

Our PWA [Macro] Index sank 9.53 points to a yearly low of 28.57. The financial markets subindex was the culprit; plunging 41.61 points to a net score of -9.53, with the following 8 (of 23) data points deteriorating on the week:

  • Individual Investor Bullish Sentiment sprang to 45.7% (we consider 50+ to be dangerously optimistic on the part of the predominantly untutored, emotional, reactionary and inexperienced individual investor community). 
  • The VIX Curve moved from positive to neutral as volatility spiked markedly during the second half of last week. 
  • The Put/Call ratio (option trader sentiment reading) sprang 20 bps to 0.84. 
  • The consumers staples/discretionary ratio turned notably in favor of consumer staples. 
  • Overall breadth plunged (accounting for 4 of the 8 lower readings), with the S&P 500's advance/decline line rolling over, its % of members trading above their 50-day moving average falling below 50% (49.2), and sector readings showed marked deterioration among the cyclicals (save for energy). 
On the bright side, the economic subindex actually gained 4 points, as auto sales improved in September (moving to neutral on our chart, from negative), the chemical activity index, after flattening for a stretch, resumed its positive trajectory, rail traffic turned higher in similar fashion, and the Citi U.S. economic surprise index moved into neutral territory (from negative). Two readings detracted from the subindex's overall score; they were, Global PMI falling for the 4th straight month to a still expansionary 52.8 (moving from positive to neutral), and Citi's Japan economic surprise index moving from neutral into negative territory.

Summary:


Presently the market is facing headwinds from multiple fronts:

1. While Q3 earnings reports will reflect the strong profits that come with strong business conditions, I expect that they will be marred notably by uncertain outlooks due primarily to global trade concerns, which will exacerbate the otherwise typical inflation concerns that accompany a mid/late-stage economic expansion.

2. Rising inflation, as noted in #1.

3. An appropriately hawkish Fed (read rising interest rates).

4. Iran sanctions taking effect on November 4th, thus hampering the distribution of the world's fourth largest store of oil reserves. I.e., higher prices at the pump are likely during the coming holiday shopping season.

5. Uncertainty over mid-term elections.

6. Coming to terms with a slowing global economy and the inevitability/realization that the U.S. is in no way immune to the conditions impacting the other 96% of the world's population.

7. The real potential for further deterioration in U.S./China trade relations.

All of the above said, while our macro index is plumbing new 2018 lows, it still presents a scenario where odds favor continued expansion over recession going forward. Presently 49% of its components read positive, 20% negative and 31% neutral; with 53% of this week's negative readings occurring within the financial markets subindex. I..e., recent equity market volatility -- as opposed to current economic weakness -- has much to do with the overall index hitting this year's low.

The begging question -- for the experienced long-term investor -- of course being, will a near-term uncertain investing environment ultimately drag the economy into a recessionary state, or will generally strong economic conditions ultimately pull the market further into all-time high territory?

The receding conditions illustrated by our macro index that have prevailed since its peak on January 15 have (until, as noted above [and last week], very recently) had little to do with stock market conditions, and lots to do with the rising headwind against global trade flows. It appears as though, finally, investors are taking note of those risks; which is what we've suggested from the get-go is needed to inspire all sides to come to the table with the aim of hashing out a legitimate, working "solution".

Our analysis says that there remains ample time (ample conditions, that is) for a treaty to be fashioned and for stocks to resume their bull market march, which, therefore, dictates that we stay the course with our generally growthy sector weightings for the time being.

Just how long conditions will support such a thesis, as well as our present allocation strategy, of course remains to be seen. Which is why we perform our analyses religiously, week in and week out, and remain open to all possibilities.

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Touching Base

Away from the office currently, with spotty connection, but wanted to pop in, in light of today’s market action.

Clients and regular readers should not be surprised, nor should they expect that one day’s volatility will remedy the near-term imbalances we’ve been taking note of lately. 

Here’s from this week’s message:
The next few weeks (leading into mid-term elections), are, at best, likely to see a notable pickup in volatility. At worst, a pullback in the mid-single to low-double-digit % range.“
What ultimately counts, general conditions, clearly point to higher interest rates, but low odds of near-term recession. In fact, higher rates, at this juncture, confirm the presently positive longer-term setup. 

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

American Industry In Good Shape; From The Horses' Mouths

September's results for the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing and Services Sector Surveys are out, and, clearly, american industry is presently in very good shape. 

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Makes Me Shudder, A Little...

When discussing the prospects for inflation this morning, Fed Chair J. Powell said the following:
"... many factors, including better conduct of monetary policy over the past few decades have greatly reduced, but not eliminated, the effects that tight labor markets have had on inflation."

Monday, October 1, 2018

Chart of the Day: I Like Our Present Mix

Referring to last week's action, in this week's message we said:
"Blame the rout in materials and industrials on heightened trade risks."

The Ultimate Lesson In This Morning's News

Looks like NAFTA (under a new name) is going to survive after all. Canada and the U.S. have reportedly come to terms that will have the trilateral agreement survive, after a fair bit of tweaking. Not to throw a wet blanket on the good news, but, well, looking into the details, let's just say it's a real head-scratcher. 

Saturday, September 29, 2018

This Week's Message: Rough Market Currently

This week's message to clients is my weekly note to our staff and associates. If you like getting into the weeds, by all means take it all in, if you prefer to cut to the chase, feel free to skip to the summary.

Overall, a rough week last week.

While the S&P 500 only declined 0.53%, there was some technical damage done sector by sector.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Oops! So Far Tariffs Are Accomplishing The Opposite of Their Intended Goal

International Trade in Goods 
Released On 9/27/2018 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-72.2 B$-72.1 B$-70.8 B$-72.2 B to $-69.0 B$-75.8 B
Exports % change-1.7 %-1.6 %-1.6 %
Imports % change0.9 %0.7 %

Highlights
Amid the unfolding of tariff effects, exports are moving in the wrong direction and
look to be a big negative for third-quarter GDP. The nation's trade deficit in goods
was a whopping $75.8 billion in August with exports down 1.6 percent for a second
straight month.

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Scratch Last Week's China-May-Be-Taking-The-High-Road Message

In a blog post last Thursday I quoted the following from a Bloomberg Economics article:
"China is planning to cut the average tariff rates on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month, two people familiar with the matter said, in a move that will lower costs for consumers as a trade war with the U.S. deepens."

The Fed Move, The Current Setup, and "THE" Risk Going Forward (video)

As the whole world expected, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by .25% today and signaled that there's another coming in December and 3 more next year. Their commentary was very upbeat and, to my surprise, stayed completely out of the political fray; making no mention of tariff risks.

Today's Log Entry: Tech Holding Up

Every now and again, when I feel it would be instructive (or at least interesting) for readers, I'll share a market log entry on the blog. Here's this morning's:

Monday, September 24, 2018

Quote of the Day: A "High Visibility" Selloff Would Help End the Trade War

Bloomberg's Economics Team shares our view that it may indeed be a notable rough patch for stocks that ultimately brings the trade war to a close.

Chart of the Day: Welcome To The Worst Week of the Year

Stock market seasonality is never an investment theme, and it can be a most difficult thing to trade.

With that out of the way, if this week turns out "bad" for stocks, know that that (last week of Sept. down) has consistently been the case (bigtime!) over the past 10 years. And of course the previous nine were not saddled with trade wars, etc.:

Take a look:   click to enlarge...

Bonus Message of the Week: Why We Remain Sanguine (for now)

Are you wondering why, amid our constant warnings of rough patches and ultimate trade war casualties, we remain relatively sanguine, and, thus, growthy in our equity allocation?

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Quote of the Day: Always Govern Yourself by Conditions, Never By Fears!

If we're right, and a "rough patch" is on the near-term horizon (what an easy "prediction" to make! I mean, there's never not a forthcoming market rough patch; the question is when), the following is timely:

This Week's Message: I Repeat, Expect A Rough Patch!

In our September 10 message we said to "expect a rough patch". Here was our reasoning:

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Leading Indicators Paint a Presently Nice Picture

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators is featured in our PWA [Macro] Index. Bloomberg explains why:

Now This is Interesting, And Encouraging!

The following speaks to possibly two things: One being tactical, the other being simply good economics:

CFOs Are Fretting Over Trade

So why do we continue to pound on the trade topic while stock traders seem to remain sanguine? Well, if you missed it, please view this week's video and you'll understand why we believe that focusing primarily on underlying conditions (which include underlying market technicals, as well as the macro environment) is the most prudent way to approach the business of investing.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Quote of the Day: There'll Be A Negotiated Solution, But How Much Pain in the Meantime -- and After?

G.W. Bush Administration Assistant Trade Representative (now Asia Society VP) Wendy Cutler perfectly states the present state of trade affairs:

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Investing With A Conditions Orientation (video)

The PWA Index today consists of 84 economic, economic and market sentiment, credit and equity market data points.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Monday, September 17, 2018

Quick thought on today's tariff and Apple news...

Commentators sound surprised by the fact that Apple traded lower today despite the rumor that some or all of its products may not be included in the tariffs that are reportedly to be announced any minute. Well, they shouldn't be...

This Week's Message: Staying the Course, But With a Watchful Eye


Despite a moderate pickup in the Financial Markets subindex, our PWA [Macro] Index declined 2.38 points to 42.36 (this year's lowest score) this week -- as the Economic subindex gave up a notable 6 points, with commercial and industrial loans seeing a large decline and rail traffic threatening to roll over. 

Friday, September 14, 2018

Bonus Quote of the Day: Target's targeting a strong holiday season!

Target says it's hiring more seasonal help this year than any traditional retailer ever has. And, of course, more folks receiving a paycheck just improves the prospects for strong Q4 consumer spending:

Quote of the Day: Echoes from the Consumer

The following from Bloomberg's commentary on today's stellar consumer confidence report echoes our assessment of present conditions:

Chart of the Day: This Week's Rebound

No additional commentary needed:  click to enlarge...

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Dealing With the Timing and Type of the Next Recession -- And -- Is There a Game Changer On the Horizon?

Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio has been making the rounds this week promoting his latest book Big Debt Crises (already can't put it down!).

Wow! What A Labor Market!

We can talk all day (sometimes I do) about how important the flow (through borders) of goods, capital and, yes, labor (people) is -- or we can simply look at the data:

Monday, September 10, 2018

This Week's Message: Expect a Rough Patch

This week's message is brief and to the point.

Taken from the summary of my weekly internal commentary after scoring our PWA index and assessing short and long-term technical market factors:

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Still Bullish On Financials, Less So On Tech

Clients know we continue to like financials right here. Despite their thus far lackluster 2018 results, the macro environment (save for one huge elephant [trade war] in the room) -- as well as the sector's own fundamentals -- screams in their favor. 

Friday, September 7, 2018

Near-Term Conditions

My parting note to a client this morning pretty much sums up all that needs to be said today about the near-term state of the market:

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Again, Like We Said

Tuesday we highlighted for you the ISM Manufacturing Survey; pointing out the resoundingly good present situation, and the ongoing concerns around the trade issue. 


This morning's release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) Survey also echoes the sentiment we expressed in this week's message

Why America Is Great and So Many Other Countries, Well, Aren't (Yet)!

I've made the case multiple times herein, and ad nauseam in client review meetings, that the miracle that a country housing merely 4% of the world's population commands far and away the world's largest economy has to do largely with its openness to foreign markets, to foreign consumers and to foreign investors. Of course I'm talking about the U.S.A..

The opposite of this phenomenon -- how a country that houses a massive 20% (nearly) of the world's population can remain mired in far too-much poverty, weak infrastructure and a general dearth of personal freedoms and opportunity -- has to do largely with its isolationist tendencies. Here I'm referring to India.

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Today's Log Entry: On Tech and Emerging Markets


Thought I'd share today's entry to our internal market log:

9/5/18 (Wednesday)

Tech is selling off markedly this morning, which makes perfect sense if we’re indeed entering a seasonal rough patch. Tech has had a huge year, leaving our higher conviction 2018 picks (financials, industrials and materials) in the dust -- relatively speaking.

Tech’s momentum of late has come from very good earnings (although our top picks have posted exceptional earnings results as well) and a political backdrop that, for now, has spared finished consumer tech products from the trade skirmishes. This sets up a virtual no-chance scenario for tech to continue to dominate for much longer from here, for two reasons: 

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Chart of the Day: F-Series Sales Say Good Things About the Economy

While the trend in overall auto sales the past few months has been nothing to write home about (now subtracting a point from our PWA macro score), Ford's F-Series truck sales have been nothing short of stellar.

While not itself a data point we score, we do acknowledge that -- being the preferred vehicle of U.S. small businesses (the employers of 2/3rds of American workers) -- F-Series truck sales results are in a real sense an economic indicator worth tracking.

Like We Said

This morning's release of the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Survey echoes the sentiment we expressed in this week's message

Saturday, September 1, 2018

The Truth Will (well, should) Set Trade Free!

In talking with some old friends (clients of roughly 20 years) yesterday about how technology, about how our ability to capture and assimilate data, and, thus, about how our systems, processes and approach to the markets have evolved over the years, I stressed how important it is that I be able and willing to transcend my moods, my fears, my whims, and, most importantly, my personal biases as I assess the facts and make investment decisions on behalf of our clients.

This Week's Message: Our Present Thesis

In last Thursday's blog post we pointed out how without the tech sector the S&P would have quite a ways yet to go to reach its January 26 all time high.

Drilling further down, we can see that without Apple and, to a lesser degree, Microsoft, even the tech sector itself would offer little to write home about:

Friday, August 31, 2018

Imagine Being 'Basically' (Competitively) Shut Out of Half of the Rest of the World's Markets!

Our (the U.S.) economy amounts to 24.3% of the world economy. Can you imagine a situation that takes us out of the trading mix (on competitively favorable terms) on 50% of the rest?

Well, frankly, you need to:

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Before You Get Too Enamored With the "New All Time High"

Before you get too crazy over the S&P 500 eclipsing its January 26 (all-time) high, recall that, per last week's video commentary, a more pertinent benchmark for diversified portfolios -- the NYSE Composite Index -- has a good ways yet to go:

China's Picking Up Where We're Presently Leaving Off!

Was talking with a friend yesterday about the ultimate (we're not nearly there yet) risk of the dollar losing its "world reserve currency" status if America truly adopts fundamentally less-global policies over the long-term.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Today's Economic Data Dump: Anything But Dumpy!

All we can say about today's economic data releases is that anyone who would suggest that the presently flattening yield curve points to severe risk of near-term recession is really -- for whatever  unsupported-by-the-evidence reason(s) -- aching for a recession. 

Here's our summary:

A Problem With Yesterday's US/Mexico Trade News

Well, there's a problem with yesterday's announced trade deal with Mexico. 

Sunday, August 26, 2018

This Week's Message: The Fed's Clearly Behind the Curve

If I had a nickel for every time I've read, or heard, an "expert" proclaim that the Fed is forever the culprit who brings on U.S. recessions, well, I'd have me some serious nickels.

Charts of the Day: Lots of stuff moving!

Whenever I find myself on the freeway I take visual note of what you might call the big-rig-to-regular-car ratio. When it looks to me like there's a disproportionate number of semis relative to Subarus on the road I'm thinking the economy's in pretty decent shape. And I've been seeing lots of trucks these days! 

Generally, I find that what my eyes tell me while driving is confirmed by my charts.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Bonus Quotes of the Day: Not 1974

Two things worth quoting in CNBC's article titled Stocks Fall As Worries About US-China Trade, Trump Legal Issues Dampen Investor Sentiment.

Market Commentary: Not Chasing the S&P (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Quote of the Day: Not Something to Celebrate

If there's one fundamental reality we all need to understand -- regardless of whether or not we agree with the present international trade track we're on -- is that it is NOT in any way good news for the world's largest economy that the #2 may be under some stress. 

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Bonus (and most important) Quotes of the Day: It's Definitely the Economy, However...

Larry Kudlow, President Trump's top economic adviser, nailed it this morning (to regular readers this should sound familiar):

Quote of the Day: U.S. Offerings Are Hugely Popular Elsewhere!

U.S. offerings are exceedingly popular in Asia -- the home of 4.5 billion potential customers (nearly 14 times potential U.S. customers!). 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

A VERY FOOLISH IDEA!!

In this week's message we reiterated our position that a protracted trade war "would indeed lead ultimately to a serious global recession."

Sunday, August 19, 2018

This Week's Message: Our Trade-Risk Rotation Theory

Clearly, recent technical trends favor the economically defensive sectors over the cyclical. We should view this as a legitimate red flag that the bull market may be moving into its later stages; as traders rotate (their buying) away from economically sensitive stocks to those that tend to fare better when expansions begin to peter out.

Friday, August 17, 2018

Is Tech Finally Giving Way?

Coming into this year our analysis of general conditions dictated that we maintain a moderate target weighting (presently 14% of equities) to technology. That's despite the huge momentum the sector had coming into the year, and our acknowledgement of the S&P 500's historically high weighting (presently 26+%) to the sector. We reference the latter because we recognized that we would likely under-perform the S&P should tech continue its epic run.

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Stat of the Day: Very Low 'Current' Recession Risk In This Consumer Driven Economy

While our PWA [Macro] Index has dropped from the low 80s to the low 40s (still a historically decent reading) during the course of this year, the driver of 2/3rds of U.S. economic activity -- based on his/her credit performance -- is doing just fine.
Here's Bespoke Investment Group on the subject:

Chart of the Day: No Pros When It Comes To tariffs!

Here's Bespoke Investment Group on the effect of tariffs on ironically the metals and mining industry group:
"You can say whatever you want about tariffs and the pros and cons on both sides of the argument, but with respect to the metals and mining companies, keep your ‘pros’ to yourself.  The group has been stuck in a downtrend ever since the topic of tariffs first came up, and it’s now basically in full flush mode."

Quote of the Day: Hoping Cooler Heads Prevail

We titled our August 11 blog post
"Hugely Broad Tariff Risk! But imagine the upside if/when cooler heads prevail..."
The Dow's up 324 points as I type, here's the story:

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Quote of the Day: Markets Will Fall Despite the Fundamentals

Ironically, given this morning's economic reports (they were net strong) and the drop in stock prices (as well as this year's overall lackluster results despite the strong fundamental setup coming in), last evening I found myself going over my old notes in Jack Schwager's instructive book A Complete Guide to the Futures Market.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Charts of the Day: Small Business Owners Feeling Good About Their Prospects!

Being that small businesses employ 2/3rds of American workers, we take the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly survey seriously.

Here are the three areas we track, updated this morning with July's results (note today's look versus heading into past recessions [red shaded areas]):   click to enlarge

Monday, August 13, 2018

The Week's Message: Near-Term Mixed

Here's the summary for our market/economic analysis for this week:


The Technicals (long-term trends)

Our long-term technical trend analysis remains notably bullish for the S&P 500. 

Saturday, August 11, 2018

America Prospers From A Prosperous China

In my August 6 blog post I made mention of the following recent commentary by the President:
Over the weekend he boasted that the U.S. market is "stronger than ever" and that Chinese stocks are "down 27%". The U.S. is therefore "winning the trade war."
After updating readers on the returns of U.S. stocks vs. Chinese stocks since the 2016 election (it's a dead heat by the way), I stated the following:

Hugely Broad Tariff Risk! But imagine the upside if/when cooler heads prevail...

UBS compiled its list of companies "most at risk from President Trump's trade war." 

I entirely agree that the present trend toward protectionism puts the listed companies at serious risk. But, my, we're only talking the tip of the iceberg here! 

Friday, August 10, 2018

Market Update: Why Shorts Have Been Losers This Year (video)

In this morning's video I update you on the state of the current market correction as well as general conditions:

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Chart of the Day: U.S. Government Borrowing -- and Foreign Investors Lending -- At Record Pace

Three key takeaways from the chart and highlight below:

Our Latest Log Entry: Washington's Pushing the Needle


Sharing the latest entry to our log:

8/7/18 (Tuesday)

The market continues to hold up remarkably well given the trade war threat, which I attribute 100% to favorable general conditions, as there’s absolutely nothing bullish in the prevailing rhetoric. 

My "remarkably well" comment notwithstanding, given the hugely strong setup coming into the year, the exceedingly positive Q1 earnings results, and I’ll say notably positive Q2 results, tax cuts, etc., the fact that the broad market isn’t up considerably more speaks to the ill-effects/uncertainty of protectionism.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Is Capitalism Only For the Elites?

Yesterday The Economist posed the following question to its readers:
"Is capitalism rigged in favour of the elites?"
 Its own Callum Williams set the stage for the debate with: