Friday, September 10, 2021

Quick Macro Update

Well, this'll likely be the last you'll hear from me for the next week or so. Heading out soon for my annual trek to Montana to do a little fly fishing with a buddy and my dear friend Matt, the fishing guide whom I introduced you to a few years ago. I believe that blog post holds the all-time record for most hits. Linking it to last September's rendition. Note that this year I'll be out of the office Monday through Friday.

As for our weekly macro analysis, I'll keep this one brief.

Morning Note: Unsavory

As we've stressed herein over the past year, the present state of financial markets, by itself, does not allow the Fed to get, let's say, consequential, in terms of combating inflation going forward. 

Thursday, September 9, 2021

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

This Week's Message: Unique to Our Lifetimes -- And -- No, Inflation's Not So Concentrated...

Eight times each year each Federal Reserve Bank interviews key business contacts, economists, analysts, etc., in their respective districts to assemble what we can view as a real-time general conditions snapshot for the U.S.

Morning Note: Too Much Prevention??

I ran across the following Robert Oppenheimer quote while listening to a recorded lecture yesterday and got to thinking about how the desperation of policymakers, elected and appointed, to circumvent the painful (yet essential) stages of cyclical economic and market phenomena grows -- as do the tools they bring to bear -- with each cycle:

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Morning Note: Belaboring the Labor Topic

This morning's action in treasuries, and the dollar, has me belaboring just a bit the labor topic (touched on it here, here and here Friday and Saturday). 

Saturday, September 4, 2021

Quotes of the Day: Sticky or Not...

We touched on employment conditions yesterday (here and here), and, again, I'm in the camp that believes the latest is not about a slowing economy at this point, it's about the obvious:

Friday, September 3, 2021

Macro Update: Terrible Auto Sales, Disappointing Jobs Number, Weakening Consumer Confidence, But Context Right Here is Key! (video)

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Morning Note: Jobs Number Missed, But Don't Hold Your Breath

Generally-speaking, the initial market reaction to a bit of news or data doesn't always end up reflecting what ultimately becomes the, let's say, enduring market reaction. This morning, however, with regard to the July jobs data, I think the market's impulse is on the money.

Thursday, September 2, 2021

Morning Note: "Good decision processes" are key...

There's virtually nothing in the morning data worth getting excited about. Jobless claims were a bit better than expected, the trade balance was as well, auto sales were abysmal but there we're talking lack of inventory, unit labor costs were up (productivity down) but there we're talking increased working hours, factory orders were a hair better than expected and the final durable goods number shows a 1% month-on-month decline. One could make a stink over European producer prices popping by 2.3% month-on-month, but no, as I type our Eurozone ETF is right there with the S&P 500 this morning, up a smidge.

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

This Week's Message: The Trade That Keeps On Ticking -- And -- Status Quo Bias

The trade that keeps on ticking is large cap U.S. growth (read big tech). And the latest data, frankly, couldn't offer more support.

Morning Note: Coming Off the Boil -- And -- A Pet Peeve

Global PMIs overnight confirmed that economies are indeed coming off the boil. Whether it's a natural come-down from what we'll deem an overdose of government stimuli or it's more about the delta variant, or a bit of both, remains to be seen.