Saturday, August 13, 2022

Quote of the Day: Not yet ready to get "all in constructive."

As you've no doubt gathered from the recent messaging herein and, especially, on the videos, we see odds favoring (but never guaranteeing, mind you) yet another leg lower for the current bear market.

Friday, August 12, 2022

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Correction, at the 7:54 mark I said "oversold", meant "overbought."

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: How to View Inflation Right Here

Dear Reader,

Your inbox is about to get a reprieve, as I'll be on vacation next week. Now, while much of my time will be spent floating down Montana's Madison River with two close friends (one I've introduced to subscribers via my most-popular ever blog post, which, ironically, is not about markets), I can't guarantee, should the spirit, and the markets, move me, that I won't pop in a time or two (I'll effort not to) with something I feel compelled to express.

And here's this morning's note:

This week has been virtually all about inflation. As we suggested (i.e., the obvious), inflation was clearly peaking, leaving only the question of speed and magnitude of the coming deceleration. Keep in mind PWA is firmly in the structurally-higher inflation camp going forward. 

Thursday, August 11, 2022

Charts of the Day: Again, Hmm....

Here's yesterday's "Charts of the Day:"

Interesting, while equities are partying this morning (as we expected, at least initially, if inflation came in under expectations), long-term treasury prices (first chart), after an initial surge, seem to have a different take (they will drop when long-term inflation expectations increase), as do inflation swap spreads (they will rise when inflation expectations increase [2, 5 and 10-yr featured])... Hmm....

Morning Note: Doesn't Pass the Smell Test

Last night's internal market log entry: 
8/10/2022

The SP500 has seen an impressive ramp back to 4,200, on really strong breadth, no less. One might conclude that this is the makings of a new bull market. 

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Charts of the Day

Interesting, while equities are partying this morning (as we expected, at least initially, if inflation came in under expectations), long-term treasury prices (first chart), after an initial surge, seem to have a different take (they will drop when long-term inflation expectations increase), as do inflation swap spreads (they will rise when inflation expectations increase [2, 5 and 10-yr featured])... Hmm....




Morning Note: Inflation, and Our Messaging, Highlights

July's CPI confirms that inflation remains at consumer-crushing levels. However, for a kneejerk market (SP500 futures up 1.75% as I type [45 minutes before the open]), it's all about expectations, and this morning's report came in a bit lower than consensus:

Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Recession or No Recession, both pose a challenge for stocks...

Last night's entry to our internal market log:
8/8/2022

Oil looks interesting here after the recent comedown. Brazil looks historically attractive going forward. Metals and miners are poised to be high-probability winners for years to come. And while we can argue on behalf of a strong dollar persisting a bit longer, the setup, in my view, for the next several years lends itself to an on-balance weakening trend. Hence, cheaper and higher yielding (than US) non-US (EM in particular) equities in general look long-term relatively attractive going forward.

Monday, August 8, 2022

Morning Note: Still All About Positioning...

Per our latest video commentaries, the resiliency in equities of late smacks more of positioning than it does some sustainable sea change that would have us turning net bullish on the market's go-forward prospects from here.

Friday, August 5, 2022

Chart of the Day: Bears Hanging In...

In this morning's video I mentioned that today's rally off the lows, amid what had to be -- based on the character of the recent rally -- the last thing the bulls would've wished for (today's employment report), could've to no small degree been the result of some serious short-covering. If, that is, it didn't all get taken out during last week's rally.

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Do Fight the Fed -- Or -- Come Hell or High Inflation

"Don't fight the Fed" has been the market mantra for as long as no doubt many a trader can remember. I.e., you may see nothing but dread when you look out across the macro horizon, but if the Fed's easing (cutting interest rates and purchasing bonds) buy stocks, with both fists!

Thursday, August 4, 2022

Morning Note: The Veering Path -- And -- Above All, Stay Patient -- And -- Be Popper's "Rationalist"

You may have noticed that, when I suggest that inflation is coming off the boil, I often make it a point to remind the reader that we are structurally bullish on inflation over the long-term from here. 

I.e., nothing with regard to our thesis has changed since I penned the following back on May 7th of this year:

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Cautious Optimism Re The Consumer

At first blush, this is a shocking headline

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Morning Note: The Market's (maybe) Misinterpreting the Fed -- And -- "Nobody Wants to Work Anymore", a not-so historically-uncommon gripe...

As we've been stating for weeks, while our long-term structurally higher (than the past several decades) inflation thesis remains intact, the post-covid surge was/is in the process of peaking and rolling over -- although, ultimately, settling in at a level notably above the Fed's 2% target (in the absence of a deep, protracted recession, that is)...

Monday, August 1, 2022

Morning Note: Notable Improvement in Equity Market Conditions, But....

Our own Equity Market Conditions Index (EMCI) showed marked improvement throughout July.

Here are the highlights: