Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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  1. Thanks for this great video Marty. Pelosi is definitely unique in her own way. She did it in 1991 and she did it again in 2022. I actually like that she stands up against autocracy and speaks what she believes in (that is as far as I like her). For the market, it is complacent with the Fed interest rate hikes. Gold price has not yet rolled over despite continued interest rate hikes. We are technically in a recession by definition of having two(2) consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The White House and the Fed may not want to acknowledge that and perhaps even try to put a spin on it. And finally, I agree that the market may fall another 15% sometime in the 4th quarter of this year.

    1. You bet Sam! With regard to gold, it tends to correlate with different setups at different times. At times it appears to be all about the direction of the dollar, at other times it's about being a "safe haven", at others, and apparently of late, it's about real interest rates (emphasis on "real"). I.e., interest rates can be high relative to recent trends, but if inflation runs even higher you have negative real rates, which can be very bullish for gold. Going forward, given the debt backdrop and the globally pernicious nature of a strong dollar, it would make sense to see a trend in lower real yields, along with a weakening dollar. For the first time in a very long-time, we are longer-term constructive on gold right here. But, as you suggest, I do expect lots of chop in the metal for the time being. With regard to recession, as I'm sure you know, it will not show in the history books unless the NBER declares it to be. Their definition is not the technical definition, although it's very rare for one to occur (by their definition) without it coinciding with 2 back-to-back contracting quarters.

  2. Got it. Thanks for the information.