The Fed 'Potentially' Adding Insult to Injury -- And Your Weekly Macro Update

In this week's video prelude we'll explore last week's inflation numbers, the latest action in oil and its rocky relationship with interest rates, and, among other things, an under-the-surface look at what's really troubling markets of late.

The Problem

My schedule today only allows for a quick pre-market note... So just quickly touching base on this morning's CPI report and my thinking around the whole inflation conversation.

Immediately upon the report coming in hotter than expected stocks went from nicely green to notably red in pre-market action... Tech and financials look to be taking the brunt of the hit so far... Precious metals getting pretty well hammered.

Fed funds futures immediately went from essentially pricing in no rate hike at this month's meeting, to a 50/50 chance... A December hike fully priced in.

In terms of the inflation problem itself, while we think higher (than recent years') inflation is a structural reality going forward, at the moment we see it as a supply problem much more so than a demand problem, which, therein, lies the problem.

I.e., the Fed speeding up the tightening of financial conditions by raising short-term interest rates is taking aim at demand (which, btw, is the only target they have -- as they can't print oil, for example, and they can't reduce trade barriers [read tariffs]).

So, while you'll hear commentary aplenty about how the Fed needs to get more aggressive, watch what happens to inflation expectations, and ultimately the near-term numbers, when a durable Middle East solution is found and if/when trade tensions seriously ease.

The former (in terms of safe passage of oil tankers) being an inevitability over coming months, the latter is less certain.. In either case the precise timing is up in the air.

Stay tuned, I'll have much more for you over the next few days.

Why the Ecoonomy's OK Despite Consumer Surveys & Other Serious Stuff

Definitely a must-watch video for clients!

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Businesses Steady, Households Strained*

Week of October 5, 2026

Unreal That the S&P Hit an All Time High Yesterday, Literally Unreal (video)

Dear Clients, here's another (this one's short) video we'd like you to be sure and take in.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Twists and Turns

Per yesterday's video, September was the first truly ugly month for markets since March... But now we enter a period that, even during past mid-term election years, tends to be a very good stretch for asset prices.

Of course this year's setup has more to contend with than simply domestic politicking!

For the moment, save for a yet-unconfirmed attack on an Aramco oil facility, the latest (weekend) news flow has been notably tame, relatively-speaking.

As I've pointed out, the US administration is in the eleventh hour if it intends to pull a few market levers to catch a wealth-effect edge heading into election day.

Scott Bessent taking the treasury bond buyback to its stated upside limit last week, plus Europe's giving the nod to the US's request to unleash a meaningful amount of diesel (in particular) reserves suggests that they've yet to give up on juicing market forces to perhaps sway the on-the-fence voter come early November.

Perspective on September's Swoon (video)

Dear Clients, please be sure to take a few minutes and take this one in.  Thanks!

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

We Remain Uber-Bullish On Gold (Long-Term)

Gold has been interesting to track of late... It's a not-small position for us that, since we added it, has been very profitable to own -- until this year, that is, and certainly until the past month or so.

GLD YTD: