Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Morning Note: Beware your predictions...

While inflation (CPI) came in a bit hotter, month-on-month, than economists expected, based on the reaction (lack thereof) in rates (actually dropped a bit), the street feared worse. 

Monday, April 12, 2021

Morning Note: The Fed Strives to Weaken the Dollar, And for "Good" Reason

Things I suspect will heat up as we move into the week... Q1 earnings reports will of course garner much attention, however, CPI, retail sales, regional manufacturing surveys and fresh housing data will be keenly focused on as well. 

Sunday, April 11, 2021

Positioning Technical Updates (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Friday, April 9, 2021

Macro Update: Asset Bubbles Abound, However...

While our macro index's overall score didn't budge this week (remaining at +18.37), the number of positive inputs did rise to 45% of the total, negatives also rose, to 27%, neutral inputs declined to 28%.

Morning Note: "The Game is About Preservation of Capital"

With all due respect to any conspiracy theorists out there, it's been my all-too-often observation/opinion that conspiracy theories are, again, all-too-often, about outcomes that simply don't comport with the theorist's preconceived notions.

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Once Again, Privatizing Gains While Socializing Losses

Once again, in little more than a decade, the powers that be have facilitated the privatization of gains (subprime corporate debt buyers made great hay while the makin was good), and the socialization of losses (stuck the taxpayer with the garbage when the risk came home to roost). 

So, think of the wife as the taxpayer, think of the husband as the Fed, think of the bottles as all of the insolvent debt that the Fed effectively removed from the hedge fund and private equity firms' portfolios -- and placed onto the taxpayer's -- and think of the cream as all of the stimulus:

Morning Note: One Thing That Never Changes

Yesterday I pointed to the dangerous level of giddiness presently displayed among the investment advisor crowd. Well, this morning the AAII's weekly individual investor sentiment survey results were posted, and, well, investors are not heading my advice (I subtitled yesterday's post "Never Party With Investment Advisors").