Friday, January 24, 2020

The Fed-Put Narrative, And My Problem With It

The overwhelming thesis among credible market actors is that the rally in stocks from September of last year to now is entirely about Fed liquidity and global central banks’ risk-aversion. And that there remains a very solid central bank put (with a strike price just a hair below current levels) that essentially pushes the next bear market past the foreseeable future, and that every dip remains a buying opportunity.

Macro Update

Just finished our weekly macro scoring session. Here's a recap:

Thursday, January 23, 2020

More On The Corporate Debt Mess

Here are some snips from a Bloomberg article this morning titled CLOs Are Packed With Loopholes that screams the risk we've been identifying herein for months in the corporate debt space.

Hard to fathom that a mere 12 years after the bursting of the greatest credit bubble in modern history we're seeing similar shenanigans playing out once again:

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Risky Private Equity/Lending Setup (1-minute video clip)

We've been illustrating herein ad nauseam the risks we're seeing throughout the corporate debt space. 

A dive into the private equity universe is telling!

Here are the highlights from a January 16 interview with Dan Rasmussen, hedge fund manager specializing in levered small companies and high yield bonds.

This Week's Message: Simply Not Willing!

Getting a lot of feedback lately from clients who have taken note of what they view as a decidedly bearish shift on my part over the past several months.

Well, I definitely get that, however, when we look at our target core mix of assets, while indeed it has a more defensive tilt than we've maintained over the past 10 years, it's clearly not outright bearish.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Quote of the Day -- Possibly Of The Year!

If Guggenheim's Scott Minerd is anything, he's objective. He's never one to sensationalize or to wed his ego to his thesis. While he and I haven't always been on the same page over the years, I've always viewed him as being thorough and thoughtful in his approach to markets, and, therefore, credible.

Eerie Calm Currency Markets

During Doubleline Capital's recent "Round Table Prime" session -- which brings together a tight group of credible market actors to discuss the state of the global economy and markets -- the firm's founder, and largest bond manager in the world, Jeffrey Gundlach made a point that jibes with my Sunday morning commentary: