Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Within The Range of Probabilities

I know how present conditions seem like the definition of uncertainty, but, as a friendly reminder, here's what we said back on September 29th (just off of this year's peak) about the then coming weeks:

Quote of the Day: Data Dependent


I couldn't agree more with Bloomberg Market's Anchalee Worrachate this morning. In fact, it basically sums up how we approach the investment process (i.e., data dependent):

Monday, December 17, 2018

Read Between the Lines

While this is simply an observation, not a complaint, as the media is what it is, I never cease to be amazed at how the media can spin a headline to incite angst. Yep, angst sells!

Quote of the Day: Yet Another Sign???

The major averages had just struggled their way to the plus column on the morning when this headline hit the tape:

Chart of the Day: Again, Bearishness Can Be Bullish

Bespoke Investment Group echoes (with the data) what we've been saying herein about how bearishness among individual investors like we're seeing presently can be a bullish indicator:   emphasis mine... (and don't forget to watch this morning's video commentary)

A Quick Look at This Morning's Action, And The Characteristics of Market Bottoms (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Bonus Chart of the Day

Each week I track the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, across currencies, commodities and financial markets to get a feel for what some of the world's most sophisticated traders think of the near-term prospects for various asset classes.