Stock market seasonality is never an investment theme, and it can be a most difficult thing to trade.
With that out of the way, if this week turns out "bad" for stocks, know that that (last week of Sept. down) has consistently been the case (bigtime!) over the past 10 years. And of course the previous nine were not saddled with trade wars, etc.:
Take a look: click to enlarge...
Monday, September 24, 2018
Sunday, September 23, 2018
If we're right, and a "rough patch" is on the near-term horizon (what an easy "prediction" to make! I mean, there's never not a forthcoming market rough patch; the question is when), the following is timely:
In our September 10 message we said to "expect a rough patch". Here was our reasoning:
Thursday, September 20, 2018
So why do we continue to pound on the trade topic while stock traders seem to remain sanguine? Well, if you missed it, please view this week's video and you'll understand why we believe that focusing primarily on underlying conditions (which include underlying market technicals, as well as the macro environment) is the most prudent way to approach the business of investing.