Monday, October 21, 2019

Heightened Global Risk

Bloomberg opinion editors just penned a piece titled "The World Economy Is Stumbling Toward Disaster". And while the title is a bit much, I do sympathize with much of what concerns them.

Here are a few snippets, some will sound familiar to regular readers:   emphasis mine...

Quote of the Day

Hold this quote close as you consider the messaging herein of late regarding the under-the-surface pressures we're seeing, particularly in the corporate debt market, and as the equity market meanders its way further into history's longest expansion:

Market Update (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Friday, October 18, 2019

Quote of the Day: More Prudence Justification

As I intimated yesterday, the IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report is a robust, deep dive into what lies beneath the surface of the world economy. And, alas, as I also suggested, it more than justifies our currently guarded approach to the equity markets.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Quotes of the Day: Justifies Prudence

I'm currently poring over the just-released IMF Global Financial Stability Report, and the deeper I go the more confident I am that hedging our portfolios right here is the definition of prudence.

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Chart of the Day: One Really Good Reading, Amid Otherwise Uninspiring Data

On balance, today's data deluge wasn't much to write home about: Mortgage purchase apps were down 4% week-on-week, retail sales missed economists' estimates, business inventories slowed, the Fed's Beige Book (an anecdotal report comprised of inputs from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts released 2 weeks before each policy meeting) characterized economic activity as "slight to modest", and the Treasury International Capital Report showed foreign investors selling long-term U.S. securities in a big way in August (net -$41.1 billion).

Quote of the Day: This Is A Big Deal Folks!

Clients and regular video blog viewers have heard me say that, in a macro sense, our job here at PWA is to first assess probabilities in terms of the direction of the next 'big' move in financial markets and the economy, and, second, to maintain a firm handle on what lies beneath the surface in order to anticipate the depth and the length of that next big move.