Friday, August 5, 2022

Chart of the Day: Bears Hanging In...

In this morning's video I mentioned that today's rally off the lows, amid what had to be -- based on the character of the recent rally -- the last thing the bulls would've wished for (today's employment report), could've to no small degree been the result of some serious short-covering. If, that is, it didn't all get taken out during last week's rally.

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Do Fight the Fed -- Or -- Come Hell or High Inflation

"Don't fight the Fed" has been the market mantra for as long as no doubt many a trader can remember. I.e., you may see nothing but dread when you look out across the macro horizon, but if the Fed's easing (cutting interest rates and purchasing bonds) buy stocks, with both fists!

Thursday, August 4, 2022

Morning Note: The Veering Path -- And -- Above All, Stay Patient -- And -- Be Popper's "Rationalist"

You may have noticed that, when I suggest that inflation is coming off the boil, I often make it a point to remind the reader that we are structurally bullish on inflation over the long-term from here. 

I.e., nothing with regard to our thesis has changed since I penned the following back on May 7th of this year:

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Cautious Optimism Re The Consumer

At first blush, this is a shocking headline

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Morning Note: The Market's (maybe) Misinterpreting the Fed -- And -- "Nobody Wants to Work Anymore", a not-so historically-uncommon gripe...

As we've been stating for weeks, while our long-term structurally higher (than the past several decades) inflation thesis remains intact, the post-covid surge was/is in the process of peaking and rolling over -- although, ultimately, settling in at a level notably above the Fed's 2% target (in the absence of a deep, protracted recession, that is)...