Chart of the Day: Welcome To The Worst Week of the Year

Stock market seasonality is never an investment theme, and it can be a most difficult thing to trade.

With that out of the way, if this week turns out "bad" for stocks, know that that (last week of Sept. down) has consistently been the case (bigtime!) over the past 10 years. And of course the previous nine were not saddled with trade wars, etc.:

Take a look:   click to enlarge...

Bonus Message of the Week: Why We Remain Sanguine (for now)

Are you wondering why, amid our constant warnings of rough patches and ultimate trade war casualties, we remain relatively sanguine, and, thus, growthy in our equity allocation?

Quote of the Day: Always Govern Yourself by Conditions, Never By Fears!

If we're right, and a "rough patch" is on the near-term horizon (what an easy "prediction" to make! I mean, there's never not a forthcoming market rough patch; the question is when), the following is timely:

This Week's Message: I Repeat, Expect A Rough Patch!

In our September 10 message we said to "expect a rough patch". Here was our reasoning:

Leading Indicators Paint a Presently Nice Picture

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators is featured in our PWA [Macro] Index. Bloomberg explains why:

Now This is Interesting, And Encouraging!

The following speaks to possibly two things: One being tactical, the other being simply good economics:

CFOs Are Fretting Over Trade

So why do we continue to pound on the trade topic while stock traders seem to remain sanguine? Well, if you missed it, please view this week's video and you'll understand why we believe that focusing primarily on underlying conditions (which include underlying market technicals, as well as the macro environment) is the most prudent way to approach the business of investing.