Saturday, July 24, 2021

Quote of the Day: We'll "be talking about big shovels"

Pulitzer Prize-winning author and economic historian Daniel Yergin is considered one of the world's most influential energy pundits. He was the featured guest in today's Smarter Markets podcast.  

As clients will note below, his commentary jibes to a virtual T with our long-term thesis (which we're expressing in our core portfolio) on the energy, and the mining, space:   

Macro Update: Conditions Continue to Wane (but no worries at this juncture) -- And -- "We're Not Very Correlated to the U.S. Market" Right Here... (video)

Bloomberg opinion columnist, Allianz Chief Economist, Ex-Pimco CIO and Queens College, Cambridge President Mohamed El-Erian is on the same page we are on inflation going forward:

"Inflation is not going to be transitory. I've been pretty certain in my mind about three prior calls (all were spot on). This is the fourth one."

"I have a whole list of companies that have announced price increases, that have told us they expect further price increases, and that they expect them to stick."

Among other things, I make mention of the latter in this week's video, below...

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Morning Note: Yeah, Inflation is a Thing Right Now...

Hmm... there are 9.2 million job openings in this country and new weekly unemployment claims are up 3 weeks in a row (419k reported this morning; 69k more than expected). Somethin ain't right... ?

Well, according to the Wall Street Journal:

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

This Week's Message: What's Happened to the Inflation Trade/Setup? -- And -- Today's Key Questions...

Clients and regular readers know that our overall macro thesis includes a view that has odds favoring inflation running "hotter" well into the foreseeable -- beyond the present "transitory" rise in prices that was inevitable given the dead-stop/fast-rebound (pent-up-demand) nature of COVID providing cover for the most aggressive fiscal and monetary action the world has ever seen (including, on the monetary side, an utter breaching of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 [forbids the Fed from buying corporate securities, which they did anyway], which of course, on top of taking personal incomes [via "stimulus" checks], in the aggregate, above prepandemic levels) -- takes the concept of moral hazard to a whole new level!

Morning Note: Builders Playing It Safe -- And -- "Resilience Lies in Expanding Our Awareness"

In yesterday's morning note I pointed to consumer sentiment around the present home buying impulse (non-existent) as an explanation for June's disappointing building permits number. In their evening note yesterday Bespoke Investment Group had the following take:

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Morning Note: It's the materials, but it's becoming the sentiment as well (in housing)...

Housing data (starts and permits) were out this morning, painting a mixed picture. Starts exceeded expectations by 53k, although May was revised down by 26k. Single family accounted for 1.13 million of the 1.643 million total.