This Week's Message: Just Ain't Feeling It

With a consistent slew of decent enough data releases (not too hot [to embolden the Fed] and not too cold [to worry about recession]), with a start to the earnings season that has thus far seen 72% of S&P 500 members beat bottom line expectations, with relatively (or perhaps ostensibly) positive headlines around ongoing U.S./China trade negotiations, with Brexit now on hold till the fall, and with a presidential impeachment seemingly off the table, one might think that the U.S. stock market would be barreling through last September's all-time highs. 

Goldilockish Data

My overall assessment of today's U.S. data releases is that -- from an equity market perspective -- one almost couldn't ask for more. I.e., the numbers are good enough to imply that recession risk remains notably low, but not so good as to suggest that the Fed needs to cool things off by raising interest rates anytime soon. Call it Goldilockish...

Here's my rundown:

#1 Corporate America Worry

Indeed -- as some friends and colleagues have stressed to me in response to my persistent whining over the perniciousness of protectionism -- tariffs may very well be simply the negotiating tool of choice by the Trump Administration. Nevertheless, per the 54-second clip below, JP Morgan's chief quantitative strategist agrees that they pose a "headwind" (in my view THE headwind) and finds them to be literally the number one "discussed topic" (read worry) among corporate America. He also stresses, as our analysis suggests, that good things are likely to happen if/when that headwind abates (provided general conditions hold up in the meantime):

This Morning's 2nd Log Entry

Forgot to touch on the health care sector earlier...

Clearly, health care stocks are doing a number on the major averages of late.

This Morning's Log Entry

This morning's log entry only reflects my view of the short-term setup. For a deeper dive, and insight into what guides our allocation decisions, be sure to watch my latest video commentary (if you haven't already):

4/17/19 Wednesday

This Morning's Log Entry

Premarket:

Futures are pointing to a strong U.S. open this morning after an impressive overnight rally in China and positive earnings reports in the U.S. premarket; 9 of the 10 companies reporting exceeded earnings estimates, with the 10th meeting expectations.

Weekend Log Entry

Once again, I offer up my very short-term (inexhaustive, and always subject to abrupt change) assessment with some reservation. I.e., there's no trading advice herein, and you have to consider the following within the context of our exhaustive longer-term assessment. With the latter in mind, in case you missed it, be sure and watch last weekend's video commentary. 

I think the most you can glean from the following is that we're in for a pickup in near-term volatility:

4/13/19 Saturday

Near-term positives: