Thursday, January 17, 2019

Charts of the Day: Unequivocally Bullish Action

In a Tuesday blog post I offered up the following:
While the trading off of the December 24th low has indeed been bullish (late intraday buying, rallying amid bad news, strong breadth, etc.), I want our clients to understand (if not expect) that a testing of that Christmas Eve low remains a distinct possibility. Although, again, the action of late has been encouraging...
Should the bulls succeed 2600, 2630 (where the next resistance line meets the 50-day moving average [green line]) will be the next big test.

2018 Year-End Letter, Conclusion

Link to Part 1  (What Makes Us Tick)
Link to Part 2  (General Conditions)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Steep Corrections During Expansions)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Financials and Industrials)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Technology)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Materials and Energy)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Cons. Discretionary & Comm. Svrcs.)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Healthcare and Cons. Staples)
Link to Part 3, Sectors  (Utilities and REITs)
Link to Part  (Bonds and Gold)
Link to Part 5  (The Dollar)
Link to Part  (Global Investing)

In our 2018 year-end message we've presented what we believe to be the characteristics of good portfolio managers. We've expressed the sense of security we gain in the understanding that while not all good investments make money, if we strive to make only good investments the odds are strongly in our clients' favor over the long-term. We highlighted the whys and wherefores of our present sector and regional weightings. We shared our views on the importance of maintaining a global investment mindset and we expounded on why we think that many currency traders once again may be on the wrong side of the dollar going into 2019.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

U.S. Housing Not So Bad

Whether we're talking the stock market or economic indicators, we are forever looking at how prices/activity responds to the overall character of the news related to a given market or to a given segment of the economy.

Quote of the Day: The ECB "has the [Eurozone] market's back"

In our 2018 year-end letter's section on the dollar I pointed to low expectations for the Eurozone economy leading to a softer European Central Bank, and how that, along with low relative valuations for Eurozone equities and our view that recession risk for now remains low, makes for a bullish setup for the region's stocks, as well a bearish one for the U.S. dollar (a bullish scenario for equities the world over).

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Chart of the Day: Don't Break Out Your Rally Hat Just Yet!

As I illustrated for you over the weekend, 2600 on the S&P 500 stands to be a tough technical level to beat in the near-term.

2018 Year-End Letter, Part 6: Global Investing

Other than updating the accompanying charts, and my closing comments, there's really no improving on our 2017 letter's section on global investing. Ironically, as I type here today, Brexit remains an issue (mentioned in the 2016 must watch video), and while Italian banks aren't as forefront as they were then, the new populist Italian regime definitely is (although they did finally come to terms with the EU recently on what initially was an utterly ridiculous budget proposal).

If there's been a common theme over all the years we've been blogging, and, for that matter, managing money, it's that the world is a very big place, and the U.S., in terms of its share of the world's human capital, is a very small place. While we can debate the causes of the miracle that makes the home of a mere 4% of the world's population the far and away world's largest economy, we can't deny the fact that the human race is becoming more connected by the minute and, thus, the nations and institutions that embrace the interdependence that this global connectivity breeds -- while successfully navigating the at times turbulent geopolitical waters -- will prosper the most in the decades to come.