Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Brief Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: The Tilt

While seasonality continues to support the bulls right here, one has to wonder if it can indeed hold up through Christmas -- given generally weakening conditions, souring consumer sentiment, and a Fed narrative that remains notably more hawkish than market actors, in the aggregate, seem to believe credible, on, say, a 7-month time horizon.

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Morning Note: Retail Sales, So Far... Meh

Before you go celebrating the higher (record breaking!) retail sales numbers for this holiday season vs last, know that we're talking nominal, as opposed to real, terms (i.e., not counting vs counting inflation).

Monday, November 28, 2022

Morning Note: VIX Approaching Interesting Territory

As I stressed in Friday's video (worth watching), while we're open to the notion that a new bull market is in the near-term offing, it's still not our base case, per the general conditions backdrop and the technical indicators I continue to illustrate.

Friday, November 25, 2022

Economic Update and Stock Market Snapshot: When Consumers Get Covid Relief out of Their Systems (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Chart and Quote of the Day: Recession Looms, However....

This week's "Flash" (preliminary) Composite Purchasing Managers reading dipped further into contraction territory, supporting our thesis that odds favor recession vs continued expansion in the coming months.


However, as I've stated numerous times herein, our current assessment is that any recession here would likely be mild, by historical standards -- due to existing and developing factors of both a domestic and an international nature. 

Wednesday's Wall Street Journal article titled Global Economy Slows, but Seems to Be Faring Better Than Feared agrees with our thesis... The areas I bolded will sound familiar to regular video watchers:
"Business surveys released Wednesday pointed to declines in output across the U.S. and Europe’s largest economies in November. But the figures and other economic readings pointed to a mixed outlook, with some parts of both economies continuing to show resilience despite high inflation and rising interest rates.

In China, the world’s second-largest economy, the outlook is highly uncertain as the country faces a surge in Covid-19 cases. Economists expect a rebound in growth next year as Beijing attempts to ease tough pandemic policies.

A tight U.S. labor market and still strong household balance sheets are supporting consumer spending, the economy’s main engine. A healthy consumer helped power retail sales in October and could keep the world’s largest economy growing at the end of this year. The U.S. outlook depends in part on how it weathers the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases aimed at cooling inflation that is running near a 40-year high.

Europe is experiencing less economic disruption from Russia’s decision to limit energy supplies than analysts earlier feared. Many households and businesses in the region are adapting by, for instance, cutting back on energy consumption, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. European governments also distributed larger-than-anticipated sums of fiscal support to households to help address rising energy and food costs, he added.

“We’re going to end up with more than 75% of the world’s economy actually doing pretty well,” Mr. Posen said. The U.S. and European Union “are likely to have relatively short, not terrible recessions and return to growth possibly by as early as the fourth quarter of 2023.”

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

The General Setup and a Brief Stock Market Snapshot (video)

This morning's message comes to you by way of video... My monologue on current conditions takes up the bulk of the presentation, although pay close attention to my volume analysis on the daily chart, as it presents a picture somewhat at odds with the price action of this very nice Q4 rally to this point.

All of us here at PWA wish you and yours the best of Thanksgivings!

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.