Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Morning Note: Toppy Phenomena

Asian equities traded mostly higher overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green. Europe's doing well as well, with 13 of the 19 bourses we track up as I type. U.S. major averages are reflecting newfound optimism that a stimulus deal will happen by the end of the day (decent [but not guaranteed] bet I suspect): Dow up 206 points (0.73%), S&P 500 up 0.70%, Nasdaq up 0.42%, Russell 2000 up 0.26%.

Monday, October 19, 2020

Morning Note: The Prelude (well, reminiscent of a past prelude)

Asian stocks traded mostly higher overnight, with 12 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green. Europe, not so much this morning; 11 of the 19 indexes we follow are trading lower as I type. The U.S. major averages, trading on virtually nothing (for the moment) but the prospects for fiscal stimulus, have been all over the place as today's session gets underway. At the moment: Dow down 24 points (-0.06%), S&P 500 down -0.13%, Nasdaq down -0.25%, Russell 2000 up 0.44%.

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Random notes from our research thread...

Being surrounded by what I feel blessed to say is an amazing support team allows me to spend most of my time deep in the weeds of markets and of macro conditions.

Saturday, October 17, 2020

Macro Update: Yep, Unprecedented...

I'll let JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon set the stage for this week's macro update:
“The word unprecedented is rarely used properly. This time, it’s being used properly. It’s unprecedented what’s going on around the world, and obviously Covid itself is a main attribute. The economy would be in shambles without the safety net of the CARES Act. In a normal recession unemployment goes up, delinquencies go up, charge-offs go up, home prices go down; none of that’s true here. Savings are up, incomes are up, home prices are up. So you will see the effect of this recession; you’re just not going to see it right away because of all the stimulus.”

Friday, October 16, 2020

Morning Note: Financial Gravity Suspended

Friday is definitely on my top-7 list of favorite days of the week, as it's the day I score our macro index, so I'll be keeping this morning's note short and sweet.

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Morning Note: There's Absolutely A Market For Treasuries

Increasing covid case numbers and lack of agreement on US fiscal stimulus has markets in a risk-off mood round the world. All but two of the 16 Asian equity markets we track closed lower overnight. Europe -- seeing rising covid numbers and proposing new lockdowns -- is red (19 of 19 markets we track) across the board. US major averages are all off this morning as well: Dow down 162 points (-0.57%), S&P 500  down -0.76%, Nasdaq down -1.19%, Russell 2000 down -0.66%.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

This Week's Message: No Hunch or Hyperbole

The treasury secretary told Bloomberg News this morning that:

"U.S. DEBT MUST BE DEALT WITH OVER NEXT 10 YEARS."

Yep.... hmm... well... uhhhh... yyyyeah... that's good. Because, well, here's how the future of Federal debt is shaping UP: