Friday, February 21, 2020

Brief note on today's action, and on our core mix...

As I type the Dow's down 186 points (0.64%), the S&P 500 is down 0.78% and the Nasdaq Comp is down 1.19%. 

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Macro Update

All of this week's data reports that flow to our proprietary macro index have been released, allowing me to score our index a day early. Just finished, here's a recap:

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Quote of the Day: Amazing!!

Last Sunday afternoon I said to Nick; "let's see what happens when Apple cuts its outlook because its prize [growth] market is for all intents and purposes on lock down." 

Ironically, the announcement came Monday (Presidents' day) afternoon, and, lo and behold (tongue in cheek), the stock gaped down roughly 4% (that's nothin based on the news) at the open on Tuesday. However, by today's (Wednesday's) close it was back to within a buck of its pre-warning price. Amazing!!

Chart of the Day: Retail Mortality

So I totally get what Amazon does to the brick-and-mortar retail space, but still, given the presumed strength of the consumer, there has to be more (perhaps the corporate debt reality I keep pounding on herein) to what you see below than simply online shopping.

This Week's Message: The Secret Sauce

No kidding, it absolutely makes some sense to us that amid what you already know about the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy, as well as the frightening data points charted for you below, that global stocks are holding near their all-time highs and may (as in maybe) very well continue right on through them in the weeks to come. 

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Bonus Quote of the Day: When Most People Are Wrong...

The key Marks refers to below requires a constant deep dive into the state of general conditions, an understanding of crowd behavior, and patience:

Quote of the Day: "Every Decade or So"

Market extremes seem to occur "every decade or so". Hmm....
 “Buy low; sell high” is the time-honored dictum, but investors who are swept up in market cycles too often do just the opposite. The proper response lies in contrarian behavior: buy when they hate ’em, and sell when they love ’em. “Once-in-a-lifetime” market extremes seem to occur once every decade or so...
--Howard Marks