Friday, May 14, 2021

Macro Update: Rising Tide, One-Time Incentives, Hedging Ag and the Inflation Risk of Populism (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Morning Note: The Uncertainty Spawned by the (perceived) End of Uncertainty

U.S. retail sales were released this morning and, as you might expect, folks are now spending less on stuff and more on stuffing their faces, in public places that is...

Thursday, May 13, 2021

This Week's Message: Our Present Inflation Narrative -- and the Potential For Something 'Long-Term' Special In Commodities

One of the late great economist Milton Friedman’s oft-quoted assertions is:

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"

Morning Note: A Quick Technical Look at Tech

In that there's a deep read (our main weekly message) coming your way shortly, I'll keep this morning's note brief and to the point.

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Morning Note: Heed Your Seeing Eyes and Your Soaring Grocery Bill

We've talked about the base-effect distortion of the latest data when compared to where we were a year ago. So, sure, when we look at year-on-year CPI north of 4% (core [ex-food and energy] at 3%) no sweat. Ah, but month-over-month? Of course that's meaningful.

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Morning Note: Markets Own the Fed

The NFIB Small Business Survey was out this morning and, as I'll bet you suspect, optimism's up among the companies who employ more than half the U.S. working population. And, nearly more than ever, they'd love to be employing even more. 

Monday, May 10, 2021

Small Shift In Our Core Allocation...

FYI We made a modest core allocation shift this morning in portfolios large enough to hold our remaining position in FXY (Japanese Yen). The move speaks more about the relative attractiveness of Mexican equities than it does about any serious lack thereof for the yen. 

It makes for a tax-efficient (in non-retirement accounts) rotation as well.