Sunday, March 18, 2018

Headline of the Day: Bitcoin a serious threat, not! -- And -- Blockchain itself, however, is another proposition altogether.

From day-one, when anyone asked me how I felt about bitcoin I'd reply, "I absolutely love the concept, but fuggetaboutit if you think it's going to take over the world. I mean, imagine the threat to the global monetary system. The powers that be will have nothing of it, I promise."

Saturday, March 17, 2018

We Still Think the Market's a Bit Behind the Inflation Curve

On balance, last week's economic data releases were decent; better than decent when we look at consumer confidence, jobs-related data and industrial production. We're seeing virtually no signs presently of any heightened risk of a near-term recession; which is of course what we're forever on the watch for as we consider our equity exposures.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Don's Mom

The mother of the best economist I know passed away on this day in 2008. The tribute he penned to her a decade a go is timeless, and most inspiring. 

We Had A Huge Trade Surplus In January!!

Wow! We had a huge trade surplus in January!

Well, not by popular definition, but certainly by your investment consultant's 😇.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Why Media Headlines are Virtually Worthless

Now, it is true that the Dow is down over 100 points as I type. And it is true that retail sales unexpectedly dropped last month (something we'll dig into and apply to our model). However, does the message implied by the following headline paint an accurate picture of this morning's move in the Dow?

Data of the Day: Small Business Owners Continue to Like What They See

Small business is the employer of U.S. citizens, and, thus, the internals of the National Federation of Independent Business monthly survey account for 3 (of the 49) inputs to the economic component of our macro index. 

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

This Week's Message: Why We Like Financials Right Here -- And March Trends

This week we raised our financial sector target weighting to 18% (from 16%) of equities, making it our single heaviest position (previously tied with materials and industrials [still at 16% each]). Here's why: