Saturday, January 20, 2018

The Eagle

As we ponder this weekend the market implications of all things political, I thought I'd offer up the analogy we've been using during client review meetings. 

With few exceptions, and at times with virtual incredulousness, clients are asking about (commenting on) the record heights the stock market continues to mount. Here, metaphorically, is how we explain it:

Thursday, January 18, 2018

This Week's Message: Still Not a U.S.-Only Phenomenon, Options Traders Are Betting On Volatility, Macro Trends Remain Bullish, and Some Important Stuff Going Forward

As good as it feels to credit one's favored factor(s), development(s), person(s) or political party, the truth is that the market dynamic you and I are presently experiencing is a global affair. 

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Quote of the Day

Jack Schwager, in his instructive and comprehensive A Complete Guide to the Futures Market  makes the point that we've been stressing of late in client review meetings: That while our fundamental analysis says the overall setup remains bullish for equity markets, it's  only useful in terms of assessing the prospects for the intermediate and longer-term horizons. We should always expect frequent counter-trend moves and corrections even under the best of conditions. 

Friday, January 12, 2018

Inflation Update

In last night's post we featured December import and export prices and the Producer Price Index -- each missing expectations -- and reiterated our stance that it's simply a matter of time.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Despite the headline numbers, the market feels inflation coming...

We've been hinting herein that our view on inflation is that we're on the cusp. Not, mind you, remotely in the style of the late-70's/early-80s, but at a rate that jibes with an accelerating economy and an uber-tight labor market. 

This Week's Message: The Troubling Rumbling!

As we suggested yesterday, and in our year-end letter, the most troubling rumbling amid the presently bullish macro setup is the threat of U.S.-led protectionism. 

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

China's Dollars

Dow's down triple-digits as I type. Here's the headline:
"Dow falls 100 points amid concern China may stop buying U.S. debt"
Let me help you put that headline into perspective.