Monday, June 24, 2019

Data of the Day

Not that we needed any, but here -- out this morning -- is yet more support for our thesis that the trade war needs to end sooner than later:   emphasis mine...

Is Trump's Approach Strategy or a New Standard? The Answer Is Ultimately Everything for Markets

The G20 meeting happens later this week and virtually all that matters this go-round is the Trump/Xi summit.

Clearly, Trump pushed too hard against a China that early-on seemed desperate to give all but the farm to end the trade war. 

Saturday, June 22, 2019

This Week's Message: There May Be A Game-Changer on the Horizon!

I'm hitting again this week on a theme I've presented herein a number of times in recent years, but, make no mistake, this one's indeed worth hitting again!

While we can use charts and data till the cows come home to form our hypotheses, history (if we bother to look) reminds us that there's often more going on than meets the eye. 

The market was barreling into all-time-high territory in 1995, while the economy was beginning to show some serious cracks.

Watch this classic CNBC video clip:

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Video Commentary on the Latest Action

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Quick Thoughts on the Fed Meeting

The Fed did about all the market could ask for this morning. No cut in rates (that was too much to ask), but acknowledgement of heightened risks and the willingness to cut rates later if need be.

Two things:

What CFOs Worry About

Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and CFO magazine conduct the Global Business Outlook by surveying CFOs of companies and subscribers of CFO magazine around the world every March, June, September and December.

This Morning's Log Entry: Is the first rate cut a sell-the-news or buy-the-news event?

A number of credible analysts have been making the case that Fed rate cuts are not necessarily good for stocks, specifically the first cut in a series of cuts. They claim that the data say that investors should buy stocks on the third or fourth cut in a series, but not the first.