If you really think the current, or previous (if it's indeed over, which I dunno) correction is/was scary, horrific, terrifying or just plain bad, well, historically-speaking -- and to prepare yourself for the future -- you need to think again.
Saturday, February 17, 2018
Friday, February 16, 2018
Thursday, February 15, 2018
The National Association of Home Builder monthly sentiment index (January's results just released) -- one of the 79 inputs to our macro model -- suggests that while housing contractors are struggling with shortages of land and labor, they aren't sweating the prospects for higher mortgage rates in the least:
Circa 1923, the otherwise media-aloof Jesse Livermore confided in journalist Edwin Lefevre and gave the world what became in my view history's greatest written work on the stock market. Livermore's observations are as pertinent, and prescient, today as they were nearly a century ago.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Having spent nearly my entire adult life in the investment arena, I must tell you that I feel completely at home in the stock market. That is, on behalf of myself as an investor, and on behalf of my family's financial well being, there's virtually no amount of volatility that rattles me. And it's instructive for you to know why.
As I type Dow futures have dropped from +150 to -230. A 380 decline that began the minute the January Consumer Price Index came in at +.5% versus the +.3% consensus expectation. Yesterday virtually all of the experts were -- and clearly the "smart" money was -- betting it would come in below, at, say, .2%; thus quelling, for the moment, the market fears over higher interest rates. I sure saw it in rallying gold and bond prices yesterday, (bonds tanking [rates rising] as I type) and in equity futures this morning.
If you happen to be of the mind that somehow U.S. companies are getting a raw deal on the global stage, well, we're looking at the best bottom and top-line growth we've seen in many years and, ironically, the companies whose earnings and revenues come mostly via foreign customers are the cheif difference makers. I.e., they're seeing markedly better results than those whose earnings come primarily from within (although the latter's ain't nothin to sneeze at either!). Of course the weak U.S. dollar certainly hasn't hurt: