Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Chart of the Day: Are the latest gains "durable"?

In our client review meetings these days I of course expound on much (the good and the bad) of what you've read herein, and when it comes to the historic chasm that separates current stock prices from underlying fundamentals I typically declare that the major averages would need to decline by easily two-thirds (a bit more than the '08 experience) to catch down to present reality. 

This Week's Message: This Ain't About Capitalism...

As I've suggested herein of late, it's not a stretch to surmise that the near-term path of least resistance for the stock market is most likely higher (not a prediction mind you!).

Morning Note: "Obvious Things"

Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with 9 of the 16 markets we track closing lower. Same for Europe this morning, with 9 of the 19 bourses we follow currently in red. U.S. major averages, save for the Nasdaq, are giving a little back so far this session; Dow down 176 points (0.58%), S&P 500 down 0.27%, Nasdaq up 0.13%, Russell 2000 down 0.53%.

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Morning Note: Gold's Woes, and a couple tweaks...

Positive vaccine news, improving global data, political certainty and an incoming US treasury secretary with a penchant for easy money has stocks in rally mode this week. 

Monday, November 23, 2020

Morning Note: How To Tell Good From Bad Economists

Optimism pretty much reigns globally this morning, as positive news on Astrazeneca's vaccine added to recent promising reports from Pfizer and Moderna, and the readings from purchasing manager surveys (PMIs) say business, particularly among global manufacturers, is picking up notably, as are costs, per our view on inflation going forward.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Macro Update: A Little Something for Everybody

I've been hinting that many of what we deem to be pertinent data points have been flashing threatening signals of late. However, per this week's analysis, not yet to the point that has us lowering their scores.

In fact, thanks to an uptick in mortgage purchase applications (our only needle-mover this week), our overall score moved yet another notch closer to the green; this week we're at -4.08.

Morning Note: Careful What You Ask For!

U.S. stocks have found sanguinity at the open this morning, after getting rocked a bit overnight by news that the Treasury has no interest in expanding emergency assistance measures and asked the Fed to return all remaining funds to the government. Secretary Mnuchin's comment this morning that folks are misinterpreting the message I suspect helped calm the waters a bit.