Thursday, July 19, 2018

Today's Data Support Yesterday's Message On Housing, And An Important Note Regarding the Fed

Yesterday we reported on weak data from the housing market and suggested that -- while we are indeed taking note -- factors other than waning demand may be the culprits.

This morning's data releases support that notion:

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Housing Headwinds

While June's homebuilder sentiment survey (released yesterday) was just fine with an overall score of 68 (above 50 denotes optimism), last month's housing starts and permits results (released this morning) were anything but!

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Trade Deals Going On Everywhere! Well, almost everywhere...

Ironically, the threat of a global trade war is inspiring trade deals across the globe. Sadly, however, the traditional U.S. leadership in such agreements is missing.

Monday, July 16, 2018

Headlines of the Day: The Consumer's Still In Very Good Shape

The following headlines from this morning speak to what we're seeing in the consumer components of our macro index:

The Markets Hold Great Sway Over the Political Powers That Be

We've maintained that the saving grace for the market when it comes to the threat of a global trade war is the market itself.

This morning's news with regard to oil makes our case. Here's the headline:
Oil Falls 3%, Below $69, As Treasury Says Importers May Get Leeway to Buy Iranian Crude, Despite Sanctions

This Week's Message: General Setup Remains Constructive, But There's Undue Risk Resulting From Trade Disputes

The following are highlights from our weekly market and economic analyses:


The overall short/intermediate-term setup remained mostly unchanged last week across the cyclical sectors. The one exception was energy recapturing its 50-day moving average. Financials, industrials and materials continue to score poorly, while tech, consumer discretionary and now energy receive the highest possible scores.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

The Two Forces Changing Everyday Life for the Better!

I'm always a bit perplexed when I hear folks lament the ills of modern society. They tell tales of a hollowed out middle class and of increased poverty at home and abroad. All the while I know that they, in their own communities, see what I see as I meander along the trails in my own neck of the woods; which vividly illustrate for me that while life in 21st Century America ain't perfect, it certainly ain't all that bad either.