Thursday, June 24, 2021

Morning Note: It Can Pay to Raise Interest Rates, for Some Countries

As we've reported, lip service aside, U.S. central bankers (as a voting majority) have zero desire -- or room, frankly -- to tighten monetary conditions for far into the foreseeable future.

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

This Week's Message: More On Inflation, On China-driven Inflation and A Few Timely Portfolio Tweaks

Gotta stick with the inflation theme, as, like I keep saying, getting that one (essentially the dollar) right over the next few years will we suspect be key to investment success.

This chart of the US Dollar Index will look familiar to video watchers:

Morning Note: Groceries

Quick note this morning; saving the good stuff for our main weekly message (coming today or tomorrow).

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Morning Note: Appropriately Careful Right Here

Given last week's selloff -- sparked by what, in reality, amounted to utterly benign lip service (though sufficient to trip a few trading algos into sell mode) to those who believe the Fed should essentially do their job and allow interest rates to do their job with regard to rising inflation -- markets are a little on edge this morning awaiting J. Powell's testimony before the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. 

Monday, June 21, 2021

Morning Note: What Is Virtually for Certain

Last week, the worst since last October for the Dow, saw stocks jittery out of the gate -- rightly so as it turns out -- then fold after the Fed announced that 2023 will likely see the beginning of a campaign to wean the economy off of what amounts to a negative (adjusted for inflation) interest rate regime.

Imagine the disruption in those asset markets folks -- by design -- thought were immune to consequential losses due to the promise of perpetual central bank support. Well, as you noticed, several asset markets just gave us, and the Fed, a sneak preview.

Saturday, June 19, 2021

Macro Update: Housing Headaches, Crowded Commodities, and the Reality of the Interest Rate -- and Currency! -- Setup (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Friday, June 18, 2021

Morning Note: The Punch is Spiked, The Market's Addicted

Friday's our deep-dive day around here, and given the week we've had I'm anxious to get to the scoring of our index, checking correlations, assessing the technicals, yada, yada -- and getting back to you with our weekly macro update. Soooo, this morning's note's going to be short and sweet.