Economic Update (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

SP500, NDQ100, Apple, Msft, Gold, Ag Snapshot (video)

Correction, I mentioned that the Nasdaq 100 has just completed the best quarter since Q2 2020, which is the case, but then I confused myself, and no doubt the viewer, and referenced the 2000 tech bubble bursting... In reality, the current Q1 rally echoes, in terms of gain, Q1 of 2000, just before the bottom fell out... Hence my confusion... Sorry about that...

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: "A Vector of Vulnerability"

I featured the following chart in Tuesday’s must-watch video titled 7 Indicators That Warrant Caution Right Here.

Senior Loan Office Survey (SLOOS), % of firms that are tightening their lending standards:

By the way, the above was the picture before the world knew the banking sector had issues.

I.e., this was/is not-insignificant support for our go-forward recession thesis (red-shaded areas on chart highlight past recessions)... Wouldn't surprise me if those lines go even higher when the latest survey results are released.

SP500, Nasdaq 100, Apple, MSFT, Gold and Ag Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Yesterday's video "7 Indicators That Warrant Caution Right Here" in case you missed it:

7 Indicators That Warrant Caution Right Here (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Scenarios

In the following, economist Diane Swonk does a nice job of pondering present-day economic possibilities:

"Been thinking about scenarios that could erupt as a result of the period of high volatility and uncertainty we are in.

Humbled by the vast number of outcomes in a chaotic cycle.

More I read, the more I am humbled. Some scenarios float to the top: 

Economic, Stocks, Gold and Ag Snapshot (video)

Correction/clarification: At the 12:20 to 12:58 mark, where I mention moving from a labor friendly regime to a capital friendly regime, I actually meant the other way around; moving from a capital friendly regime to a labor friendly regime. Where I mention 130% debt to GDP ratio for the US, I was referring only to government debt (which, by the way, was ~116% of GDP in the early/mid 40s).

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.