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Thursday, April 17, 2025
Careful What You Ask For & Gold Getting Stupid (video)
Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Quotes of the Day
Following up on Wednesday's post where I suggested that the Fed will step in, as aggressively as needed, should the credit market "need" it.
Here's Peter Boockvar suggesting that -- from the horse's mouth -- that's all (or the first) we should expect, at the moment:
The 2025 Concern(s)
4/11/2025
As/if the data worsen, and the market continues to wane, the inflection point for the administration to do a dramatic turn in rhetoric and start talking up great conversations and trade deals in the works may come sooner than later.
The 2025 concern is the potential for negative momentum (recession risk) to gain steam and, thus, see that typical 40+% (recession) hit to equities before it's over.
Along the way we’ll no doubt see some massive rallies, that -- if indeed this is a bear market -- will sadly suck in unsuspecting fomo-(fear of missing out)-ridden retail investors... Only to break their hearts during the next leg down.
Sunday, April 13, 2025
Tariffs, Stress, Sentiment, and The Go-Forward Probabilities (video)
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Wednesday, April 9, 2025
What Really Went On Wednesday (video)
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Monday, April 7, 2025
What Typical Bear Markets Look Like (video)
Yet another must-watch for clients!
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Sunday, April 6, 2025
Recession Odds Rising, And Rallies (likely head fakes) 'Ultimately' In the Offing (video)
FYI: I shot this video Sunday afternoon as equity and commodity futures were tanking, and as treasuries and the yen were rallying... Who knows where markets will be by the time you clients receive the link... In the long-term scheme of things, and for our purposes, it (short-term volatility) makes zero difference... Our goal here (in these video updates) is to simply keep you abreast of our thinking as present conditions play out, and to have those of you who watch this stuff daily gauge your expectations accordingly.
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