Understanding Your Account Statement: Specifically The Effect of the Options Hedge

Late summer of this year, after 10+ years of riding what is now history's longest bull market, our assessment of general conditions deteriorated to the point where we placed higher (though not overwhelming) odds of a bear market occurring over the coming 12 months than we had at any time since the beginning of the 2008 recession. 

This Week's Message: Debt, Jobs, Trade, Stocks and Our Core Strategy Going Forward (video)

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Beyond Santa

Make no mistake -- well, let's say there's very high odds that -- if the tariff increase on Chinese imports occurs as scheduled on December 15th, Christmas will be ruined for anybody counting on a Santa Claus rally in stocks. Therefore, given the amazing propensity for the powers that be to respond to the slightest hint of stock market stress -- and the fact that they have to agree with the above -- I place high odds on said tariff increase not occurring as scheduled. 

Bonus Quote of the Day: Feeling Like We're In The 11th Round

Jim Bianco, Macro Strategist with Bianco Research, is one of today's more sought after articulators  of the state of global general conditions. 

Today, RealVision posted an interview featuring Jim subtitled "How the Fed Effects Equities".

The quote below from the interview essentially echoes my message in yesterday's must-watch video: I.e., as recently as last year at this time our macro assessment had it that the economy and, thus, the stock market could withstand what ultimately morphed into a 20% correction that ran from early October to Christmas Eve. And that, presently, however, our assessment is notably less sanguine:

Quotes of the Day: Don't Be Silly!

Well, no surprises here; equity index futures are rallying pre-market on the following U.S./China trade news:

Market and Macro Commentary (video)

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It Would Be Crazy To.......

So stocks are selling off a bit this morning, following through a bit on Friday's selloff. Headlines suggest that it's because the President tweeted that the U.S. is going to tariff Brazilian and Argentinian steel imports, at least that was excuse number 1; excuse number 2 followed with another disappointing manufacturing ISM print.