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Here are a few key highlights from our recent messaging herein:
This Tuesday:
"...another way to view the present setup would be to recognize that -- while stocks look [to perhaps put it mildly] expensive -- bonds are beginning to look pretty (historically-speaking) cheap. Hence, my comment that, while it may still be a bit early, we'll definitely be eyeballing duration going forward."
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In last week's video update I suggested that we're keeping a very close eye on "duration," implying that assets that respond most-positively to falling rates have our attention, although we’re not yet adding to any, right here...
Here's your weekly sector, region and asset class results update:
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Call it, per Bloomberg's Michael McKee, "a unanimous hawkish pause." Yep, no rate hike at yesterday's Fed meeting, but threats of one by year-end, and projections that show monetary policy staying yet tighter for longer than they thought last time they told us what they thought.
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For this morning's message we'll start by reposting Friday and Saturday's video commentaries... Both of these are we think very timely and should be viewed by anyone who’s at all interested in the current risk/reward setup for markets, and in what the latest consumer data say about the present stage of the economic cycle:
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Here's the opening to a post I penned back on April 20, 2020:
"Keynes suggested circa a century ago that trading (as opposed to, I'll say, investing in) markets is not about assessing fundamentals, it's about what traders think other traders are going to do. And for the more savvy traders, it's about what they think other traders think other traders are going to do."
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A few key highlights from our latest messaging herein:
The signs for the global economy sent out by the "first mover" among the economic indicators - the sentix economic index - point to a further downturn and a strengthening of the economic downturn forces. The situation in Germany remains particularly precarious. Here we are measuring the weakest situation values since July 2020, when the economy was slowed by the first Corona lockdown. Germany is also weighing heavily on the economy in the euro zone as a whole. The recession is progressing.
But even for the USA, which has so far held up well and defied the restrictive FED policy, the economic data are falling markedly. The tipping point of a global recession is less distant than one might think.
Clients, if you haven't taken in Friday's video commentary yet, please do... I think it does a nice job describing a few of the drivers of our present assessment and overall allocation... I'll include the player at the very bottom of this note.
The following from the widely followed/highly respected Sentix September Economic Report comports with our current view of overall general conditions:
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9/6/2023
Today’s action in US equities screams to the still-prevailing “soft-landing” market mood… I.e., bad news is viewed as good news, because, presumably, any weakness will not land us in recession, and (or perhaps because) it’ll inspire the Fed to ease policy.
So, when this morning’s ISM Services Survey came in better than expected, stocks immediately sold off (red circle below):
As we've been pointing out during client portfolio review meetings of late, beyond whatever's left in the current cycle (our view is that odds lean toward another round of turbulence along the way), we see a number of what we believe to be very exploitable themes.
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