Charts of the Day: Lumber and Housing; Interesting...

While it's way premature to call an end to the recent housing "boom", the latest action in lumber and housing sentiment is getting interesting.

Macro Update: Another Step Back, Quashing Crypto?, Commodity Dip-Buying??, and Not Buying the Bullish Dollar Signal (video)

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Morning Note: Math Tools and Risk Models Don't Do the Trick

Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation bested expectations; up 0.7% month-on-month -- that's not a little. And while the debate -- transient vs structural inflation -- will rage on for months to come, suffice to say that higher prices look to be hanging around awhile.

Morning Note: The Economy, and Costs, are Looking Up -- And -- The Global disOrder

The second reading of Q2 GDP came in unchanged at +6.4%, the GDP Price Index, however, was revised up. No surprise, right? I mean, you've been out and about...

This Week's Message: Bullish Technical Setup, But....

I can make my main point this week by going heavy on visuals, light on verbs.

For starters, let's scroll through some technical indicators we've been tracking for years.

Morning Note: Sentiment Signals From the Futures Markets

Our weekly assessment of futures speculators positioning offers up sentiment indications, across asset classes, among traders sophisticated enough to play in that space. As I perform the exercise I typically make notes along the way on the positioning, and/or change thereof, of key indices, commodities and currencies and interpret what that says about what these folks are thinking/anticipating.

Morning Note: Beware the Investing Einstein

While (per yesterday's note) China attempts to clamp down on metals prices, it appears ready to support its notably underperforming (ytd) equity markets. China's CSI 300 Index was up 3.2% overnight. 

Morning Note: China Passing the Buck

I mentioned in last week's macro update that Chinese authorities are presently focused on/concerned over the rising price of industrial metals. Clearly, per the weekend news, that is indeed the case; China's National Development and Reform Commission warned commodity firms that they've "zero tolerance" for hoarding or monopoly behavior. 

Macro Update: Minor Step Back, Commodities Correcting, Biased Analyses, the Fed's Fix, and a Brief Technical Analysis (video)

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Morning Note: Operative Words

This morning's schedule has me keeping our opening note short and sweet. This week's meaningful macro update will arrive in your inbox later today.

Morning Note: No "Shrinking Back" -- And/Or -- No Stopping This High-Speed Money Train

There's no doubt that the following quote from the April Fed Minutes (released yesterday) had much to do with yesterday's volatile session in equities:

This Week's Message: It's Way Different This Time -- Except When it Comes to Share Buybacks...

For this week's main message I'll point to two of the developments that are influencing our present macro thesis, then share some key highlights from our latest messaging.

Morning Note: No Rush to Rescue Us From Inflation

While commodities (save for gold [which one might argue is a currency]) are (unlike yesterday) not showing any immunity to this morning's dip in equities, for the moment we'll attribute these inevitable down moves to profit-taking after what I'll call a massive, unsustainable runup -- as I've been pointing out/anticipating in recent videos.

Morning Note: Blame it on Wood, Why Folks Own(ed) AT&T -- And -- Yes, Geopolitically-Speaking, It's Different This Time

In yesterday's morning note I featured my weekend comment regarding the positioning of speculators who trade lumber futures:

Morning Note: Futures Traders Remain Bullish on Commodities, Skittish on Stocks

Each week we review and record key (to us) components of the CFTC's commitment of (futures) traders report.

Macro Update: Rising Tide, One-Time Incentives, Hedging Ag and the Inflation Risk of Populism (video)

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Morning Note: The Uncertainty Spawned by the (perceived) End of Uncertainty

U.S. retail sales were released this morning and, as you might expect, folks are now spending less on stuff and more on stuffing their faces, in public places that is...

This Week's Message: Our Present Inflation Narrative -- and the Potential For Something 'Long-Term' Special In Commodities

One of the late great economist Milton Friedman’s oft-quoted assertions is:

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"

Morning Note: A Quick Technical Look at Tech

In that there's a deep read (our main weekly message) coming your way shortly, I'll keep this morning's note brief and to the point.

Morning Note: Heed Your Seeing Eyes and Your Soaring Grocery Bill

We've talked about the base-effect distortion of the latest data when compared to where we were a year ago. So, sure, when we look at year-on-year CPI north of 4% (core [ex-food and energy] at 3%) no sweat. Ah, but month-over-month? Of course that's meaningful.

Morning Note: Markets Own the Fed

The NFIB Small Business Survey was out this morning and, as I'll bet you suspect, optimism's up among the companies who employ more than half the U.S. working population. And, nearly more than ever, they'd love to be employing even more. 

Small Shift In Our Core Allocation...

FYI We made a modest core allocation shift this morning in portfolios large enough to hold our remaining position in FXY (Japanese Yen). The move speaks more about the relative attractiveness of Mexican equities than it does about any serious lack thereof for the yen. 

It makes for a tax-efficient (in non-retirement accounts) rotation as well.

Morning Note: Trust your intuition on the jobs report, but don't on investing...

In Friday's morning note I closed my opening muse on the employment setup with the following:

It's the Thought That Counts (SNL, Musk, Dogecoin, Dotcom)

I recall sitting in the audience at a money manager conference, circa 1999, in, if I recall correctly, Chicago. The place was abuzz with conversations about the tech sector. One of the featured speakers was the lead manager of a fund with "net" in its name (the name's been changed at least three times since). Its inception was August 1996 -- at the market peak in March 2000, the fund was up nearly 1,000%.

Macro Update: Excess Liquidity, Rising Commodities, and Market Extremes (video)

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Morning Note: It's a "Taker's" Market -- And -- The cost of short-term thinking...

Well, hmm... that didn't go well!

I'm referring to this morning's jobs report. The expectation was for north of 1 million jobs "taken" (typically, the term is "created", but we have a huge number of openings and, thus, eager employers, so I'll call it a "taker's" market right here). The actual number came in at 266k...

Surprise Quote of the Day

I must say, it's encouraging, although I must say surprising, to hear anyone at the Fed warn of what we've been pounding the table on herein for far too long now:

 

Morning Note: Is good news really good news? Depends on what you're after... Or on what's moving markets...

So the latest jobless claims number came in way better than expected; under $500k for the first time since Covid first struck. That's some good news, right?

This Week's Message: The Circle (Cycle) of Life (Economy), Charts That Trouble Me -- And -- Key Highlights

If it were up to my lovely wife, mosquitoes would be eradicated from the face of the Earth. Of course she knows, though I remind her every time she says such things, of the great circle of life -- that mosquitoes are an essential food for certain animals that are essential food for other animals that are essential food for other animals, and so on. And, of course, that we are essential food for mosquitos. 

Morning Note: Reactions

While, as to be expected, Janet Yellen quickly walked back her "interest rates may need to rise, if" comment that shook tech stocks (in particular) yesterday, the market's instant reaction to her comment, and her ultimate reaction to the market's reaction, speaks to two things.

Morning Note: The Nerve!

So I ask my friend who's in the car business: "When those stimulus checks come out, do you get busy?"

He says: "Yeah! Those are down payments."

Morning Note: Rampant Optimism -- And -- Always Ask, "What Could Go Wrong?"

A number of global Manufacturing PMIs (Purchasing Managers Indices) were released overnight and this morning and, make no mistake, optimism is rampant throughout much of the world. 

Quote of the Day: A 'New' Dependence on Non-US Actors...

Michael Kao of Akanthos Capital Management expressed what I view to be a spot-on concern (or irony) in a recent RealVision interview.