In Friday's morning note I closed my opening muse on the employment setup with the following:
"You see, ADP released their jobs report on Wednesday and it came in at +742k, so that's a head scratcher. And, digging into this morning's number (well, borrowing from Peter Boockvar's digging), the selective shutdowns of auto factories (due to lack of semiconductors), temporary jobs plunging 111k, and the construction trade coming in with zero net new hiring -- as lumber, and apparently workers, are hard to come by, at least with reasonable price tags -- explains some (but not enough) of this morning's surprise...
And, lastly, I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions from this tidbit:
Well, economist Peter Boockvar (borrowing from him once again) got his hands on this chart comparing the on vs off unemployment benefits for folks who live in Pennsylvania. I suspect "your own conclusions" more or less comport:
"Don't trust your intuition or what you think is true. These will be biased by your experiences, environment, and political persuasion. If you don't have data, you don't have knowledge." --Euan Sinclair
I couldn't agree more!
Have a great day!