Mixed Signals, Insider Selling, Two-Tiered Markets, and Diversification Is THE Key Right Here (video)

Clients, this one's a must watch, start to finish!

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

A Quick Look at Stocks, Yields, the Dollar, the Euro and the Yen (which we just added) (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: All Things Equal?

There's essentially very little to add this morning to our last two video commentaries.

In a nutshell:

1. Fed Chair Powell is comfortable setting market expectations at 3 rate cuts this year -- in essence dismissing the latest inflation data -- no longer, for the moment, concerned with an early 80s repeat... I will, however, add that not all on his team are on board, as we'll likely hear from some select commentary this week.

2. The economic data are improving, particularly in the manufacturing space -- notably reducing the odds of near-term recession -- i.e., likely, at a minimum, pushing the start-date further out.

3. Equity market technicals, and sentiment, point to increasing odds of an equity market pullback sometime over the next few weeks.

4. Given reduced recession odds, and an on-balance accommodative Fed, all things equal, odds would favor a buying of any decent near-term dip in equities.

5. #4 notwithstanding, there is large leverage (in the derivatives space in particular) underpinning these levels, which means a cracking of certain levels to the downside could indeed spark something far more meaningful than simply a buyable dip... That said -- and, again, all things equal -- odds favor #4.

6. We nevertheless -- given certain elements of the overall setup (present macro dynamics, risks highlighted above, historically high valuations) -- need to accommodate (via liquidity, diversification, and hedging) for the fact that, in markets, all things are indeed not always equal.

In case you missed them:

The Data Are Improving -- Implications, Considerations -- And Some Mixed Signals From the Earnings Calls (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

So What's Motivating the Fed Right Here? And What's Gold Signaling? (video)

This morning's analysis is nearly all narrative on what may or may not be behind the Fed's dovish tone amid reemerging inflationary forces, and on what gold's impressive rally may or may not be signaling.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Come Hell Or High Prices! And, Gold and Stocks Hit Highs Simultaneously -- That A Good Thing?

Stocks, at historically high valuations, seemed a bit jittery heading into yesterday's Fed rate decision and Powell’s press conference... And, per the below, rightfully so.

YTD % change in the price of a gallon of gas:

of a barrel of oil:

of a plateful of food:

and a copper pipe:

Morning Note: Boggles (and troubles) the Experienced Mind! And Your Weekly Results Update

So, the "magnificent seven" stocks that pretty much explain 2023's rally now represent a greater market cap than every equity market on the planet, save for only the US's:

The odds of this ultimately not ending well are, well... let's just say they're too high for comfort!

As is -- as we've been pointing out of late -- sentiment right here:

Economic Update: Problematic Inflation, Some Important History Of Our Assessment, And A Quick (important) Stock Chart Update (video)

Attention Clients, while all of today's video analysis is timely, please be sure to watch from the 6:45 mark on, where I chart our assessment alongside the equity market over the past few years... I.e., while we've generated positive returns even as our recession light remains lit, the current macro backdrop, and, not to mention, history, virtually demands that -- while we'll continue to seek out and exploit value where we find it -- we stay broadly diversified, liquid, and hedged against the potential for something swift and meaningful to the downside, at least for the time being. 

But first, a timely quote from an investing great:

“The desire for more, the fear of missing out, the tendency to compare against others, the influence of the crowd and the dream of the sure thing—these factors are near universal. Thus they have a profound collective impact on most investors and most markets. This is especially true at the market extremes. The result is mistakes—frequent, widespread, recurring, expensive mistakes.” —Howard Marks

Thanks so much! Marty

Note that, where (at the 6:12 mark) I say "staples were ramping up" heading into, and during, past recessions, sends an incorrect message. They weren't, per se, ramping up during recessionary periods, they were just substantially outperforming (at times losing significantly less than) discretionary stocks.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Valuations & Sentiment Paint a Precarious Picture For Stocks (video)

Dear Clients, in today's snapshot I touch on the typical, and historically-dangerous-to-chase, pull-forward nature of parabolic moves.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Patience, an "absolute must!" --- (a must-read post for clients!)

To be sure,

"if patience is a virtue in life, it is an absolute must in trading and investing."

--Randy Finney (technical analyst and trader)

If you tend to think of stocks and your long-term portfolio synonymously, well, if you're a PWA client, I'd say don't! But recognizing that Wall Street has done such a masterful job of engraining such thinking into investor-psyche, the following is intended for those who do.

Morning Note: Key Highlights

This morning's inflation data, in the aggregate, came in a touch hotter than expected, but not to the point -- at least in pre-market action -- to derail the equity market's expectation of a mid-year rate cut.

Meanwhile, here are a few key highlights from our latest messaging herein:

Economic Update: Amid Mixed Signals, Evidence of Weakness (in labor and credit in particular) Remains Too Much To Ignore (video)

Attention clients, please be sure and take this one in when you have a few minutes.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Strong bullish sentiment "hints at a top," although..... And a quick stocks, yields, dollar and gold update (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Manufacturing "Mini Upcycle" -- And -- Beware "The Other Side of the Parabola"

In our latest economic update I entertained the notion that the recent strengthening in manufacturing sector sentiment might prove to be a head fake.

On Monday, BCA suggested that that may indeed be the case:

A Check In the Magazine Cover Box, Some Mixed Signals, Stocks, Yields, the Dollar and Gold (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Giddy Media, But Not Over Gold -- And Your Weekly Results Update

Fascinating: The media, and Wall Street, are giddy over bitcoin nearing all time highs, and over the S&P 500 (I'd say "stocks" but the majority of stocks are clearly not there) at all time highs, while nary a mention of gold punching its way into never-before-seen territory.

Of course that, all by itself, has to have gold bulls feeling very good about their positioning right here.

I.e., long-term tops typically do not occur when upside breakouts go unnoticed -- suggesting that the asset in question remains under-owned.

The following, on the other hand, is the sort of signal you look for when you're concerned that present levels may be dangerously over-owned:

Economic Update: A Manufacturing Recovery or Head Fake? The Inflation Bugaboo And Some Telling Earnings Call Highlights (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Another Look At Wall Street's Hopes, A 3-Year Look At the Technicals, Some Data, etc. (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.