Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Morning Note: Giddy Media, But Not Over Gold -- And Your Weekly Results Update

Fascinating: The media, and Wall Street, are giddy over bitcoin nearing all time highs, and over the S&P 500 (I'd say "stocks" but the majority of stocks are clearly not there) at all time highs, while nary a mention of gold punching its way into never-before-seen territory.

Of course that, all by itself, has to have gold bulls feeling very good about their positioning right here.

I.e., long-term tops typically do not occur when upside breakouts go unnoticed -- suggesting that the asset in question remains under-owned.

The following, on the other hand, is the sort of signal you look for when you're concerned that present levels may be dangerously over-owned:

H/T Peter Boockvar

The above said, while long-term we are fundamentally very bullish on gold, we do expect it'll see its fair share of volatility as the present cycle (now late-stage) plays itself out.

Stay tuned...

Here's your weekly Sector, Region and Asset Class Results Update:

Asian equities were red overnight, with 11 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Same for Europe so far this morning, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow trading down as I type.

US equity averages (save for SP500 EW) are lower to start the session: Dow by 108 points (0.30%), SP500 down 0.40%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.19%, Nasdaq 100 down 1.10%, Nasdaq Comp down 1.08%, Russell 2000 down 0.13%.

This morning the VIX sits at 13.96.

Oil futures are down 0.30%, nat gas futures are down 0.16%, gold's up 0.80%, silver's up 0.35, copper futures are down 0.05% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 1.07%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.11%.

Among our 36 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and money market funds), 22 -- led by AT&T, GDX (gold miners), LTPZ (long-term inflation protected treasuries), XLE (energy stocks) and GLD (gold) -- are in the green so far this morning... The losers are being led lower by XLK (tech stocks), DBA (ag futures), XLC (communications stocks), PHO (water infrastructure stocks) and EWM (Malaysia equities).

"...people do not deploy the powerful human intellect to dispassionately analyze the world, but rather to rationalize how the facts conform to their emotionally derived preconceptions."

--Bernstein, William J.. The Delusions of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups

Have a great day!

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