Sunday, March 17, 2024

Economic Update: Problematic Inflation, Some Important History Of Our Assessment, And A Quick (important) Stock Chart Update (video)

Attention Clients, while all of today's video analysis is timely, please be sure to watch from the 6:45 mark on, where I chart our assessment alongside the equity market over the past few years... I.e., while we've generated positive returns even as our recession light remains lit, the current macro backdrop, and, not to mention, history, virtually demands that -- while we'll continue to seek out and exploit value where we find it -- we stay broadly diversified, liquid, and hedged against the potential for something swift and meaningful to the downside, at least for the time being. 

But first, a timely quote from an investing great:
“The desire for more, the fear of missing out, the tendency to compare against others, the influence of the crowd and the dream of the sure thing—these factors are near universal. Thus they have a profound collective impact on most investors and most markets. This is especially true at the market extremes. The result is mistakes—frequent, widespread, recurring, expensive mistakes.” —Howard Marks
Thanks so much! Marty

Note that, where (at the 6:12 mark) I say "staples were ramping up" heading into, and during, past recessions, sends an incorrect message. They weren't, per se, ramping up during recessionary periods, they were just substantially outperforming (at times losing significantly less than) discretionary stocks.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

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