Saturday, January 30, 2021
Friday, January 29, 2021
Thursday, January 28, 2021
"Coming sure and fast, that profit of millions! But it never reached me. No; it wasn’t side-tracked by a sudden change in conditions. The market did not experience an abrupt reversal of form. Coffee did not pour into the country. What happened? The unexpectable! What had never happened in anybody’s experience; what I therefore had no reason to guard against. I added a new one to the long list of hazards of speculation that I must always keep before me. It was simply that the fellows who had sold me the coffee, the shorts, knew what was in store for them, and in their efforts to squirm out of the position into which they had sold themselves, devised a new way of welshing. They rushed to Washington for help, and got it."
Wednesday, January 27, 2021
I recall 1999 like it was yesterday... Experiences that engender the most visceral sensations tend to remain prominent in one's psyche.
Today's Fed announcement will be interesting.
As I wrote recently, while it's no secret that the U.S. Central Bank is ultra-sensitive to the stock market, they've lately been receiving some much-deserved, and inexcusably-overdue heat over blowing up the greatest equity market bubble in nearly a century.
Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Yes yes, new day, same 2021 story. If you missed yesterday's charts of the day, please go there now and I won't belabor the sector breadth issue here.
Monday, January 25, 2021
If you're at all wondering what keeps me harping on nearly every day lately about the poor sector breadth I'm noticing, well, Bespoke Investment Group -- having noticed it as well -- put some history to it this morning.
Sunday, January 24, 2021
I recalled a recent conversation with a client while listening to an excellent, wide-ranging interview with investing legend Jeremy Grantham last week.
Friday, January 22, 2021
December truck tonnage (Christmas online shopping) -- our only needle-mover this week -- jumped from negative to positive (2 points) in our scoring, bringing our macro index back to zero.
You guessed it, even though the major averages are giving some back this morning (ostensibly on COVID headlines), their degree doesn't do justice to the stink of the underlying breadth.
Thursday, January 21, 2021
You're probably growing tired of my harping on how market internals (breadth in particular) remain anything but inspiring to start the year.
Yeah, I wish it wasn't so, but we're here to see things as they are and invest accordingly.
Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Yep, the calendar's turned and a new administration's assuming "power", however, on too many days in my view so far this new year the opening market action smacks of 2020.
Tuesday, January 19, 2021
"The market" (traders/investors in the aggregate) has seen incoming treasury secretary Janet Yellen's prepared remarks for today's presentation to congress, and it's liking her pleas to use the low interest rate environment to go big on borrowing and spending.
Monday, January 18, 2021
Friday, January 15, 2021
IF VIEWING FROM YOUR MOBILE PHONE, CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SCREEN.
Almost couldn't believe my eyes this morning when I read this quote from the latest commentary of a central banker:
Thursday, January 14, 2021
965,000 folks filed "first-time" unemployment claims last week, which was close to 200k above expectations. Another 284k filed initial claims on the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program; 161k was the estimate.
And of course the stock market's rallying this morning!
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Macro strategists/consultants Raoul Pal and Julien Brigden published their monthly call yesterday.
Here's Pal on the current setup (in a nutshell) and how he's presently hedging:
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Monday, January 11, 2021
More on the epic mismatch between present levels of the stock market and the real economy from Forbes yesterday:
Friday, January 8, 2021
In yesterday's Wall Street Journal, former FDIC chair Sheila Bair accurately and succinctly assessed the bizarre financial landscape we find ourselves traversing.
Thursday, January 7, 2021
Stocks are off to another nice start this morning, although in concentrated fashion.
While the S&P 500 is up 1.4% as I type, roughly 40% of its member companies are actually in the red. Utilities and consumer staples are heading lower; industrials and healthcare are relative laggards to start the day as well.
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
As is usually the case I have much queued up to share with you in our main weekly message.
Having sifted through the data and macro commentary I found worthy to cite, I've decided to keep it in queue this week and instead offer up some highlights from our lengthy 2020 year-end message.
As much of it touches on/confirms much of what I have queued up to share.
Well, the bond market isn't waiting for the one Georgia runoff left to call to be called.
As I type the 10-year treasury yield has thrust higher to the tune of 9.31%, breaching 1%, a level it hasn't seen in quite some time.
Tuesday, January 5, 2021
Monday, January 4, 2021
Julien Brigden is at the top of my short-list of other macro strategists worth listening to.
I like that he sees and likes what we (fundamentally and technically) presently see and like:
Saturday, January 2, 2021
In this year's lengthy final letter we touched on the importance of tracking the trends and momentum in data versus in (or in addition to) stock prices. We tackled the debt bubble and how policymakers are working toward a Japan-like outcome. We explored the good, the bad and the ugly of the current stock market setup. We illustrated why we like commodities going forward. We broke the U.S. equity market down by sectors. And we explored a bit outside U.S. borders...
In this concluding Part Eight we'll take one more look at the current stock market setup, we'll ponder what a post-COVID economy portends, and we'll finish up with where we see true opportunity.
Friday, January 1, 2021
So I received an email this morning from a dear long-time client and friend, Gordon, that inspired me to jump right to my keyboard and, with permission, share it on this New Year's Day with clients and blog subscribers.
Which, given other commitments today, may delay the grand finale to our year-end letter by a day or two...