Friday, January 8, 2021

Morning Note: Like Yesterday

So it's day two of Groundhog Day (the movie), although not as dramatically in terms of U.S. stock gains -- at least not at the open.

Like yesterday's open, the major US equity averages print green, but, again, ~40% of the SP500's members are in the red, same for the Nasdaq. As for the Dow, half of its 30 members are presently trading lower.

In terms of sectors, materials, financials, energy (despite oil's rise), telecoms and all things commodity-related are taking hits this morning. Industrials are flat.

In essence, yesterday and today are 2020 sorts of days; epic concentration in a select few, very bubbly, places.

Asian stocks rallied overnight, with 14 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's doing well as well so far this morning, with 16 of the 19 bourses we follow in the green thus far.

As for the US, the Dow's up 20 points (.07%), SP500's up 0.46%, Nasdaq's up 0.89%, Russell 2000's up 0.70%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 3.74%. VXN (Nasdaq i.v.) is down 0.33%.

Oil futures are up 1.40%, gold's down 3.11%, silver's down 5.21%, copper futures are down 1.06% and the ag complex is down 0.19%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up another 0.28%.

Here again is my yesterday morning comment with regard to the dollar:

"In our year-end letter Part Five I made the case for a continued weak dollar going forward, however, I also suggested that that's a very crowded trade, and that technically-speaking a bounce was in the offing:

Well, clearly, amid rising interest rates and I'm certain no small amount of short-covering, we're seeing quite the dollar rally this morning (0.46% is a not-small move). And while gold and silver, for example, are acting accordingly, stocks are bucking their negative correlation to the dollar quite successfully so far this morning...

I.e., this morning's bucking notwithstanding, a stronger dollar simply will not work for stocks going forward (in this environment)..."

Dragged lower by silver, gold, AT&T, base metals and banks, our core portfolio is off 0.22% so far this morning. Ironically, given the stronger dollar, our Asia-Pac and emerging market positions are seeing nice rallies as I type...

Fred Hickey, editor of the High Tech Strategist newsletter, has strong feelings about the present state of affairs:

"The herd has little interest in precious metals & "value" stocks in general. Too enthralled chasing one-direction bubble symbols such as TSLA, GBTC & ARKK. Repeat of '99-2000. Exact same behavior. Only the symbols have changed. Back then it was the likes of YHOO, WCOM & JDSU.

Ending will be the same too. Total collapse in the parabolic blow-off symbols (down 90%+) and huge shift to value stocks & precious metals. In the meantime, with so little trading volume in metals, they're vulnerable to -$25 all-in-a-few minutes smashes in wee hours of night.

From the '99-2000 experience, I know it is pointless to engage in "conversation" with the Bubbleheads. Nothing will make them understand - greed has clouded their minds & they are full of hubris. Let them party on... the higher their symbols fly - the greater the crashes will be.

'99-2000 experience was very difficult. There seemed to be no end to the insanity. But having lived through the experience(& prospered), it is so much easier 2nd time around. Just trying to be a voice of reason & hope for those who may be battling the maniacal forces for 1st time."

While I'll stop short of calling how precisely this ultimately ends, having also lived through the '99-2000 experience, as well as the '87 crash and all the mini and major ('08) asset bubbles, currency crises, bond bear markets ('94) since my start in 1984 (and having studied profusely their [and history's other great market moments] dynamics), I sympathize.

Have a nice day!

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