Thursday, September 30, 2021

Morning Note: Well, sure...

Rising jobless claims (362k this morning vs 351k last week vs 335k the week before) fly directly in the face of evidence that says the economy's expanding. 

Well, actually, maybe not.

Maybe they more reflect that fact that in some industries, say. auto, literally the inability to meet demand due to lack of components has them laying folks off, while there remains 10+ million job opening in other areas that can't seem to locate willing, qualified folks.

Bizarre (that last line)? Well, sure. Reflective, perhaps, of much too much top-down intervention into the private sector? Well, sure.

Asian equities leaned green overnight, with 11 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's leaning a bit lower this morning, with 10 of the 19 bourses we follow in the red, as I type.

US stocks are green this morning: Dow up 69 points (0.20%), SP500 up 0.40%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.17%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.75%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.68%, Russell 2000 up 0.34%.

The VIX sits at 21.81, down 3.37%.

Oil futures are down 2.0%, gold's up 0.67%, silver's up 1.10%, copper futures are down 2.93% and the ag complex is up 0.84%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is off 0.06%.

Led by ALB (lithium miner), AMD (chip maker), solar stocks, MP (rare earth miner), emerging market equities and silver -- but dragged by base metals futures, KRBN (carbon credits), energy stocks, Viacom and uranium miners -- our core portfolio is up 0.27% to start the day.


"...come to think of it, as long as I’ve been paying attention, I can’t remember a time when the outlook wasn’t at least somewhat cloudy. And, quite frankly, I wouldn’t have it any other way. The fact is, the “market” couldn’t exist in a world of certainty, i.e., if anyone truly figured it out (it’ll never happen), the ball game’s over. 

You see, for the stock market to function, for every eager buyer there must exist a willing seller. In other words, there has to be an opposition to every opinion regarding every security offered on every organized exchange. Otherwise, there would be no transactions and therefore no opportunity. As strange as it may seem, short-term uncertainty is exactly what we need in order to benefit from the long-term opportunity stocks can offer."

Have a great day!

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