Monday, September 10, 2018

This Week's Message: Expect a Rough Patch

This week's message is brief and to the point.

Taken from the summary of my weekly internal commentary after scoring our PWA index and assessing short and long-term technical market factors:
The immediate-term technicals deteriorated markedly last week for virtually all things cyclical and non-US, with tech getting hit the hardest (as my recent narratives have suggested it could). 

We should absolutely expect a rough patch -- in the near-term -- going forward, potentially exacerbated by Trump's latest on trade: Friday he said he's itching to go with tariffs on $260 billion of Chinese imports above the $200 billion he's promised to implement any day now. That, by the way, on top of what's already in place, exceeds the total we import from China (??). 

The bearish near-term setup aside, general conditions are still substantially positive and, therefore, other than tweaking here and there, dictates that we stay 'on-balance' growthy in our sector weighting for the time being. 

As you're aware, however, my personal view is that general conditions will not hold up long-term against the kind of trade war Trump threatens. Thing is, nor can his political ambitions; which is reason to believe, still, that he'll back off (while claiming victory) before conditions roll over...

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