Leading Indicators Paint a Presently Nice Picture

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators is featured in our PWA [Macro] Index. Bloomberg explains why:

"Trying to figure out when the next U.S. recession may strike? There’s one indicator that has a virtually flawless track record: the year-on-year change in the Conference Board Leading Index. Every recession since 1970 has come with a decline in this composite reading of ten economic and market measures, and there’s been only one instance (indeed one month!) when it gave a false signal of impending economic contraction, writes Bloomberg Macro Man Cameron Crise."

Here are the highlights from today's release:

Leading Indicators

Released On 9/20/2018 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2018 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Leading Indicators - M/M change 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.6 % 0.4 %

Highlights Led by a surge in ISM manufacturing orders, the index of leading economic indicators posted a solid 0.4 percent advance in August. The report's credit measure and interest-rate measure were both strong contributors as were consumer expectations and stock prices. Building permits were a prominent weakness to underscore the flat results of this morning's existing home sales report. But housing aside, the LEI is pointing to a healthy finish for the 2018 economy.