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I found myself, on two separate occasions today, telling clients that while I won't say that this is the most headline-driven market we've ever had to manage through, I will say, that, indeed, it is as headline-driven as any market we've ever had to manage through.
The following from Bloomberg's "Macro Man" Cameron Crise's latest podcast pretty much says it all, at this juncture:
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5/21/2025
Consistent with our view that the recent rise in yields has everything to do with the proposed federal spending package, the 10yr treasury yield just popped to above 4.5%, and the 30-year to 5.01% on news that an agreement was reached to raise the state and local tax deduction to 40%.
Again, fiscal stimulus, and expanding the budget deficit, at this juncture, virtually has to be viewed as inflationary... Like I keep saying, while clearly they sense urgency as economic weakness brews under the surface, pumping the gas before the hard data roll over will likely prove to be yet more problematic for the bond market, and ultimately equities (at these valuations).
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Just a quick follow up to last week's "Curb Your Enthusiasm" post.
Days like these can be dangerous for unsuspecting investors... As, per the below, those who only see the headline prints on the US major averages could be thinking all's well and we're back in business.
